Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[howdy do da] 17/6/2008 22:07

WJCCGHCC, you talk sense but it isn't a case of just sitting and waiting. There is an opportunity cost to sitting on a stock that is flat or falling relative to other stocks on all our watchlists that are rising.

[wjccghcc] 17/6/2008 21:30

Look at the chart - you can see how it trades - a sharp rise on news which sucks in short-term PIs followed by a slow drift which accelerates as those PIs panic and get out at any price followed by a bounce and stabilisation as the long-term investors pick up cheap stock.

The company has never been as upbeat as they are now, they're five times busier than even 2 years ago and their top 10 projects alone are likely to lead to revenues of £15mm over the next 5 years. Personally I expect my investment to pay off handsomely in the next 12-24 months. It's a pity to see people being panicked into making a short-term loss but anyone investing in a small company like IGP ought to know better - be a strong holder or don't get involved.

[howdy do da] 17/6/2008 21:21

Mayeb we shouldn't read anything into it. I still don't think it's a institution. Must be retail.

But it reflects poorly on market enthusiasm for the stock so soon after the new product launch and the annual report.

I would be more interested to see an RNS from the company giving us some feedback on MyID 8 and whether or not they have received bid interest.

[accumulat0r] 17/6/2008 17:19

Thanks 237gmoney.

[237gmoney] 17/6/2008 17:14

Loan notes are due may 09 at can be converted at 20p and 15p. By then the company will be in profit and I guess the share price will be well above this level so I certainly dont think its that which is causing the downfall....

how much stock has been sold over the last 2 weeks? I guess less than £50k worth yet this knocks over £3m off the Mkt cap....the institution buyer didnt want the stock in the first place, they just wanted to make a quick profit and have been offloading this stock for months. I dont think they have much left of what they bought in the placing and I guess the selling will dry up again once the share hits below 33-30p.

[accumulat0r] 17/6/2008 16:44

Could it be something to do with the loan notes?
237gmoney looked at this issue. (#30, 20 May'08 refers).
But has anyone else got an opinion on this (WJCCGHCC perhaps)?

[howdy do da] 17/6/2008 15:35

Why would an institution sell such tiny amounts? It must be retail?

Well I have seen this happen before and there's going to be a rush for the door soon enough.

[237gmoney] 17/6/2008 15:32

Is it hargreve Hale selling again.....back to the placing price again....It seems long term this company has no future on its own so hopefully someone will put me out of my misery before the year is out.

[howdy do da] 17/6/2008 14:34

Little retail investors bored waiting. And instutional investors will just love watching their stock value sink so soon after the product launch and annual report.

[howdy do da] 16/6/2008 14:28

At least a 50p offer would wake up the market, then presumably management would reject it, it they felt it didn't represent a fair offer, and other bidders may join the party.

[237gmoney] 16/6/2008 14:08

At least if the share price keeps falling someone will eventually be interested in the company - just how low before this happens is anyones guess.

If bartronics are still waiting on the sidelines they or anyone else are more likely to put in a silly offer of something like 50p a share when the time comes to sell up and we will all lose out - the longer the company can stay independant the better the deal we will all get for our stake.

[howdy do da] 16/6/2008 13:09

I am hearing noise about the Middle East still.

Who knows. This is either the quiet before the storm, or interested parties (sellers or buyers) are bored waiting.

You can be sure a falling share price helps no-one so I expect some form of action.

[felix99] 16/6/2008 12:58

presumably its all gone quiet on the fronts you were hearing about though ?

[howdy do da] 16/6/2008 12:40

I am not so sure 237. Each penny drop on tiny volume puts the management under pressure to DO SOMETHING and encourages buyers to take a deeper look. The fall is nothing to do with fundamentals so it could be fixed as quickly as it has developed.

Interestingly, there was a really postive vibe about this company 6 weeks ago and not just on this BB and that good feeling could return at anytime.

I am sure something is lurking in the background and it's just a case of pressing the go button.

[237gmoney] 16/6/2008 12:06

Thanks igoe.....but it wont stop this share going back down to 30p again. At the current rate we should hit 30p by end June. The AGM is in July so if the company say something it might halt the decline down to the mid 20's but if they dont say anything until results at xmas time we may as well turn out the lights now.

[howdy do da] 16/6/2008 11:42

Nice links. Thank you.

[igoe104] 16/6/2008 11:26

MORE possible projects for igp to get involved in.

[terrytibbz] 15/6/2008 21:17

howdy dingbat any bet on the long gcm, short igp trade over next week?

[wjccghcc] 12/6/2008 15:59

The defence contractor is Lockheed Martin. Can't remember the bank. They illustrate my point in that both these contracts were won approx 2 years ago and yet IGP are only likely to receive major revenues from them this year.

[237gmoney] 12/6/2008 15:40

Agree with what your saying WJ but its frustrating all the same watching it drift like it is. From the Annual report two projects where updates could be noted are below especially the latter. A major contract with a US bank will open the eyes of potential new investors as hiding it in the Annual report will mean only exsiting investors read it and take any notice of it. Surely this is worthy of an RNS to confirm its started???

"....A major US defence contractor has recently completed an Operational Readiness Review for the deployment of a MyID powered, converged physical and logical employee smart badge. This is expected to lead on to a rollout to more than 200,000 employees, commencing within the next 6 months."

"...A major US banking customer has completed a successful pilot involving the
use of MyID to deploy physical access control cards to staff in 12 bank branches. With the achievement of this important milestone, the deployment of more than 100,000 smartcards to bank employees can begin, the immediate target being to issue cards to staff and contractors across a further 600 bank branches."

[igoe104] 12/6/2008 14:57

GOOD points wjcc.

WE WILL EVENTUALLY make money on this investement, but who knows if its going to be tomorrow or a couple of years down the line, this to me is a safe recession proof investment, so if it does go down, i,ll be more than happy to add.

ps wJCC ARE YOU brain box kevin off the eggheads, bbbc2 1800.
thats my picture of you in my mind. LOL

[wjccghcc] 12/6/2008 14:43

237, the IBI is for the microsoft identity solution which is a low end solution targeted at SMEs which isn't IGP's market.

Regarding MyID 8.0, you're not going to get an announcement saying they launched it last week and now they've sold x amount. Their projects can take 2-4 years from conception to rollout - any announcement would probably be after the pilot phase which is usually 12-18 months into the process, with revenues following 6-18 months after that. On one hand, that means the figures today reflect more the projects they won 2-3 years ago. They are 5x as busy today so you can get good visibility of where the numbers are heading (subject to contract timing which is out of their control). On the other hand, it doesn't make them a high newsflow company and can lead to share price drift as bored PIs sell up (particularly in markets like these).

Having said that, the illiquidity means the share price can move 20% on any contract win, which combined with the spread and the fact that you can only buy in volume on down days means they really are a buy and hold investment if you believe they have a strong future as global leader in their market sector. The CMS/IDMS segment is forecast to grow 5x in the next 5 years.With their 99% margins, they only need to double revenues to be on a PE of 5.

At some point the market (or more likely a buyer) will act on that.

[daz] 12/6/2008 14:28

Quite some time since the bid approach was announced. Could be that a few people are getting bored or being defensive, preferring to have cash, which looks like a reasonable move at this time as there is some downside here if the approach comes to nothing.