Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 03/12/2007 10:27

Interestingly, although the TWIC contract was awarded 6 months later than many of the HSPD-12 ones, it looks like TWIC will complete 1 million cards on schedule by end 2008 whereas there appears to be a lot of slippage with HSPD-12. Good for IGP's reputation even if the upfront costs incurred have kept them lossmaking in H1.

[237gmoney] 03/12/2007 09:28

twic update 2nd Port starts issue

[237gmoney] 03/12/2007 09:04

Yeah but what if he still kept a stake and was still the top man....wasnt suggesting they would get rid of him. For these companies to trust IGP enough to use MyID as their main smart ID card/PIV card they have to trust the people behind it....A project like the UK ID card would transform IGP into a mid cap company over night in value terms but IGP is too small to really take it on themselves, even just the smart ID card issue....Gemalto who are likely to play a big part will want to keep most of the profits themselves so even at £30-40m its peanuts...

WJ thinks Thurs 13th for results....only 9 days away....outlook on TWIC project should look very good but will be interested to hear news on the NHS deal as well

[rambutan2] 02/12/2007 22:21

237,

i'm not so sure that mr parris would accept such a lowball figure.

[237gmoney] 02/12/2007 17:34

Rivaldo, It seems you like GNG then, fair enough, but that company is like chalk and cheese to IGP. IGP's growth will be on the licences from looking after the smart card ID management software. Its a bit like buying a warranty on a sony tv. all profit for the company selling it as they never break down but IGP clients have no chose but to buy the licences. a TWIC card has a 5 year licence where as FRAC has a 3 year licence. The UK ID card will have a 10 year licence Once the card is issued. The Licence revenue is in the bag once the card has been issued, and the company can continue to win other contracts as time goes by.

All this talk about a 5 bagger but I think the company would be bought out before then. Cannot see the likes of Gemalto/RSA/Verisign not buyng up IGP if there is even a sniff of any UK ID card. Gemalto are likely to get a big chunk of the UK ID card if there is one and already use MyID. If IGP went for £20-30m I'm sure Richard Parris would take it....even though that would be no good for us.

[taurusthebear] 01/12/2007 14:24

Smart - missed out ASC, but I think that was 2004 (the bit I got). ;0)

"AFAIK all the companies you quote were profitable at the time but were valued on growth potential - if GNG were the same it would be valued a long, long way ahead of the current price."

Hi riv - that was my point. By the time they get to a low PE, they are known and assessed by the valuers, even if they are recently floated. The growth at GNG is questionable, IMO, because it operates in a very competitive area, and, for a Chinese company on AIM, a fair bit of that growth now seems to be priced in. But hasn't done the share price any harm since it floated!

Does IGP? Well, that remains to be seen, but at the moment it seems to be up there at the head of the crowd in it's chosen niche.

You get multi-baggers from growth, not (normally) from re-ratings, and that's why I prefer small companies that are about to break into profit, because that's always the biggest growth phase. And when they are at that early stage, the value hunters have yet to look at them or give them due credit. JTC has already looked at IGP and discounted it on numbers, effectively ignoring it's global marketplace, high margins and rosy outlook.

Of course, it's important to recognise over-exuberance in the share price, because all those shares over-shot on the upside after multi-bagging, before falling by 40% and more as reality hit home. IND is the only one I still hold, but even that fell from 700p to 450p in 2006.

IGP jury still out, and current market cap. equates to IND at about 2 quid, so it won't match that stellar performance, but I'd say there is plenty of room for a 5-bagger in the next couple of years.

Good luck with GNG, I might buy some if it comes back to 60p again! :0)

[rivaldo] 01/12/2007 11:58

TTB, I'm happy to be a patient IGP shareholder, but you've made my point for me re GNG - there is no excitement about it in the price at all :o))

In four months' time GNG will be on a current year P/E of only 13.8 at 83p, with 20% of the m/cap covered by cash/contract debtors, and a locked-in and growing blue chip client list of over 100 of the world's biggest companies providing recurring and visible forward income....with nothing in the price for growth from the new products being rolled out which have made an "explosive" start in the biggest market in the world.

There aren't many companies which announce twice in the first half of the year that they'll beat expectations, with room for still further upgrades with more RNSable contracts.

AFAIK all the companies you quote were profitable at the time but were valued on growth potential - if GNG were the same it would be valued a long, long way ahead of the current price.

Let's hope IGP does five-bag before it becomes profitable. I doubt it somehow as that would require a £65m m/cap, but would be quite happy to be proved wrong :o))

[wjccghcc] 01/12/2007 09:50

237g, I think that's the actual contract announcement following the initial appointment last year - they've probably been doing a long pilot project. DOD and Dep of veteran affairs are the two individual agencies who use Actividentity, probably because they did the Common Access Card 4 years ago for the armed forces which is now being made HSPD-12 compliant.

[taurusthebear] 01/12/2007 07:13

Hi Yump,

Yes, that's why I can't figure why many are so excited by GNG. There are plenty of companies with small market caps. and great potential, but that's plainly not enough, because few of them make it to big companies.

It's all very well saying a company is on a PE of 7, or whatever, but that only implies that the market doesn't like it.

With companies like IGP, the market hasn't even come round to valuing it on a PE basis, because negative or tiny earnings confuse the valuers. If and when they do, chances are it's already at least 5-bagged!

An IND, or part of one, every couple of years seems to work for me. HRN in 2001/2, IBG in 2004/6, GMC in 2005, SOLA in 2006, IND in 2005/?.

IGP in 2008/9? :0)

[237gmoney] 30/11/2007 15:08

Another 5000 buy adds another £180k to the Mkt cap.....amazing how low liquidity companies trade. the graph does show a change for the better and we all seem confident the table is turning for the company....MAYBE SOMETHING ELSE IS GOING ON???

I have just seen some news just out and not sure if it affects IGP????



EDS awarded $11.6m HSPD12 contract with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)??? Do IGP have anything with EDS???

[yump] 30/11/2007 14:34

TTB
"I think JTC makes the mistake of being over-optimistic on the potential ratings of foreign companies, so whilst some may appear cheap (like RCG), the lack of visibility coupled with their being foreign means that investors are not going to bid them up to high ratings."

Interesting comment. imo doesn't matter how much analysis and rationale one applies to a share and its ins and outs; if sentiment isn't allowed for, the whole thing falls apart. So a 'boring' company with 'boring' products is never going to set the world alight, because it captures noone's imagination. RCG is not boring imo, but GNG is just website building. In this country it would be pretty mundane unless it had a really good usp.

You only need a couple of IND's to transform a portfolio and as you imply, at the early stage they will never stack up rigourously on paper, but they do make it as businesses. How close you really have to be to them to know properly is open to question of course.

Many heavily touted companies do not have the possibility of making even 50p each from a million people. IGP does, and its in the right places with the right products and its got a fair bit of protection from someone else trying to make their 50p before IGP gets through the first few million.

[wjccghcc] 30/11/2007 13:34

I think they'll save on the RNS cost :-) Last two interims have been released on the Thursday so I'd guess 13th Dec this year.

Not sure they've done the next batch of the NHS cards - they usually announce them - so hopefully the next 200k order will fall in H2.

[237gmoney] 30/11/2007 13:01

And another tick up today......the steady pre results rise continues...will be interesting to see where this extra 20% came from then as I cant imagine the NHS contract was that much. The fact that it is sterling based is a plus but it must just come from the licence fees from the contracts already done which have very little costs attached. If HSPD12 and TWIC interim payments get in before H2 closes, we could easily see another 20% rise on top for the full year and thats without other possible new contracts locked in.....would be nice for a notice of results RNS but this company have never done this before and I guess it wont change, although it did give us a H1 update for the 1st time so you never know....

[wjccghcc] 30/11/2007 11:36

Good point. I'd expect the outlook statement to be pretty upbeat.

[237gmoney] 30/11/2007 10:41

Yes agree but the point I was trying to make is IGP are reporting a 20% rise in H1 and this is without either HSPD12 money or TWIC cash.....things must be going well on other projects. what will the figures show when we do start to get our hands on the big contracts

[wjccghcc] 30/11/2007 09:22

Yup, personally I don't expect much of a contribution from either HSPD-12 or TWIC to H1 apart from any implementation fees, which is why IGP will still be lossmaking. However, the TWIC rollout seems to be moving ahead nicely now so should see some contribution in H2 with the main benefits next financial year.

[237gmoney] 30/11/2007 09:12

HSPD12 Update - still having delays it seems but slowly moving forward, could mean that IGP have still yet to get their hands on all that HSPD12 cash

[237gmoney] 29/11/2007 14:20

Seems the price has woken up again with on 7k shares bought....MM's know results are coming and yet they will keep the price down low....As soon as this company update the market on what we holders know already, will it not jump even more??? Fed are likely to drop interest rates next month and the uk will follow parobably in January after a weak xmas trading period which will see the dollar improve. If IGP hold the TWIC & HSPD12 money till March I think they will see a much better return on the exchange rate.

[237gmoney] 29/11/2007 10:41

Can only be a couple of weeks before results now and see someone has kicked of the buying today nice an early.....should hopefully see a pick up in the price leading to results as the outlook for the rest of the year should look very good and 2008 should see the company make a good profit and start to make a dent on that EPS figure which will attract the big investors...

Am hoping for another bonus oracle based project soon, about time this new sales woman in the states started producing the goods.....what has she done so far eh Mr Parris???

[carly2] 28/11/2007 08:17

Thanks WJ !

[wjccghcc] 27/11/2007 21:55

carly, that came from some assumptions of mine - the SSA contract with RSA for RSA card manager + middleware was disclosed as being approx $10 per HSPD-12 card. I assumed $2 for the middleware and $8 for the CMS which I estimated would be split 50/50 between IGP and RSA. Of course, that might be completely wrong but it seemed a good place to start. Hopefully IGP will give us some more detail in the interims.

[carly2] 27/11/2007 20:38

Hi 237,
I'm sure WJ has referred in the past to the hspd contracts being aound £2 per card with maintenance fees on top. Is this pricing mechanism not going to be the same for the twic - I must admit, I was hoping for licence fees of around £5m from 2.5m cards - with maintenance on top!!
Perhaps I am being too optimistic. Let me know your thoughts!
Best wishes all

[237gmoney] 27/11/2007 09:07

Taurus, Agree with you IGP has the potential to be another IND as all it needs is a sniff of the UK ID project and up we go. The TWIC project is uncertain in the fact we do not know the true size of the project but what we do know it is much more than the project first stated so that is a big plus. The downside is that the project is in the US where the dollar is declining. This will take the shine off the project as if IGP make $5m out of it, in GBP this is getting smaller and smaller......we need the dollar to start turning around against the pound.....and when uk drop the interest rates again, then we should see it start to turn.

[wjccghcc] 27/11/2007 08:07

You want to short an illiquid 10mm mkt cap company with a 10% spread growing at 20% pa for the last 3 years? Quick way to the poor house if you ask me.