Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[stockscreeners] 27/11/2007 04:23

what bear phase. LOL.

on my screener, look out.

[taurusthebear] 27/11/2007 00:40

237 - JTC usually invests on fundamental criteria a la Ben Graham. He wants to see the figures to do the calculations. With IGP you can't do that, it's all conjecture.

I think JTC makes the mistake of being over-optimistic on the potential ratings of foreign companies, so whilst some may appear cheap (like RCG), the lack of visibility coupled with their being foreign means that investors are not going to bid them up to high ratings.

Of course, we now have a potential bear market to cope with, too! That will inevitably make prices cheaper, but therein will lie some great bargains.

However, IGP is the sort of company that will potentially do better in the long-term. Key word is "potential", and most people don't buy that until the earnings stream becomes more visible.

Look at companies like IND though, which back in 2003 was trading at 17p, now 870p. Their earnings stream lacked visibility, they were slowly burning their cash, and things looked promising but uncertain. Ring any bells?

The big money is in the companies with a global market, imo, with their market just arriving, unsure revenues (to keep the share price down) but high margins and a first-class product set. Will IGP become another IND in the next 3 or 4 years, after this bear phase has passed?

Watch this space! :0)

[igoe104] 26/11/2007 19:54

Latest on the twic project.

[carly2] 26/11/2007 09:03

Hi 237,
That was very well spotted re the jtc thread! Hopefully, he will see the value of the company when he sees the profits coming through...

[237gmoney] 26/11/2007 08:59

Sorry press the post button by mistake. what I menat to add was I am suprised at his investment decision. IGP is undervalued based on 18-24 months earnings potential and once this company starts making a profit, it will only get better with each quarter and every half year results. a 20% rise in revenues this time round will continue rolling forward, possibly at higher rates in the near future will an even smaller cost base.

NFC has mega potential as it could be put in every mobile phone all over the world, but its just like mobile tv at the moment. it will take 2-3 years to take off and the security aspect is uncertain. Having one device which you can use as a mobile phone & TV & mp3 player, email & office, ID Card(s) for work & gym etc., Travel card (e.g. Oyster), contactless payment (

[237gmoney] 26/11/2007 08:49

I have to agree with you there Carly when you say IGP has better prospects than GNG or RCG at the moment but technology changes all the time and RFID and NFC are the buzz words at the moment. I saw you tried to convice jtcod to have a look at IGP but he has opted for the other two.

[237gmoney] 26/11/2007 08:49

I have to agree with you there Carly when you say IGP has better prospects than GNG or RCG at the moment but technology changes all the time and RFID and NFC are the buzz words at the moment. I saw you tried to convice jtcod to have a look at IGP but he has opted for the other two.

[carly2] 24/11/2007 14:25

Hi WJ and 237,
thanks for your replies. With the TWIC rollout (@around £2 per card?), hspd and others, yes, I am optimistic. Re FRAC, what kind of deal (license and maintenance)would igp get if the card is going to be so cheap anyway?
It is interesting though that there is a bit of debate about the companies, RCG and GNG. A number of posters are saying that GNG is preferable in that it, as a software company, is developing an annuity stream of revenues. I think igp is better than gng - it already has worldwide appeal - and just think of the revenues it could enjoy..
Best wishes all - and thank-you again, WJ, 237 and igoe for all you do on this thread.

[wjccghcc] 24/11/2007 11:42

carly, we know interim revenues will be up 20% at 1.45mm or just over with a net cash inflow of 244k and a cash balance of 1.575mm.

I reckon their costs will have increased mainly because of all the work/travel to the US they've had to do to set up TWIC and HSPD-12 for the individual agencies. I'd estimate a net loss of 100-200k for H1 but this should be the last half where they're lossmaking as the TWIC/HSPD-12 rollout has now begun and the cost base levels out.

I expect the outlook to be extremely positive because of the above rollout but also the Oracle/RSA/Thales work they've done to make MyID the central repository of all logical/physical ID management for their products, with revenues from these beginning to ramp up in 6-12 months time.

If the share price dips because of the H1 loss, it could be the last chance for a decent topup before the market catches on IMHO.

[237gmoney] 23/11/2007 15:04

Carly yes as WJ said FRAC is state by state and started at the beginning of 2007 but because of the cost it hasnt had a quick take up as yet. Thats why we will not see a big impact to the figures from FRAC yet. There is a set standard for the cards but now many companies offer this service as they decided the cards did not have to have the double chips to make them as high tech as the TWIC cards. some FRAC cards are now being done by the Tiers of Trust group of companies and now cost around $10 each compared to $132.50 for a TWIC card.

EDS and General Dynamics have a big input into the tiers of Trust group of Companies, a similar operation as in the HSPD-12 GSA group so they will have a large chunk of the 40-50m cards issued. FRAC cards only last 3 years though compared to 5 years with a TWIC card so will have to renewed more regular.

State by State is better for us though as IGP is not big enough to carry out 40-50m supply at the moment. picking up 5-10,000 at a time with the different emergency services is more manageable for the likes of IGP.....

[carly2] 23/11/2007 14:43

Thanks for that WJ,
By the way, are you expecting the interim results and statements to be very positive - it does seem that the contracts are at last coming together..
Best wishes all

[wjccghcc] 23/11/2007 14:28

carly, I suspect the FRAC tech specs will be determined on a federal basis (probably HSPD-12 based) but the cards will be done on a state by state basis.

[jailbird] 23/11/2007 13:58

"
TSA began issuing TWIC cards Oct. 16 in Delaware and expanded to five other locations last week, including Baton Rouge, La., and Oakland, Calif., and will add at least 10 more ports by the end of this month. TSA enrolled more than 1,200 workers in the program in its first three weeks."



TSA set to test TWIC card reader technology

[carly2] 23/11/2007 13:28

Is FRAC being done on a state by state basis ? I thought it was going to be one US contract - not split by state..

[wjccghcc] 23/11/2007 11:53

Yup. I'm not holding my breath for Real ID but FRAC has an estimated requirement of 40-50 million and that will happen over the next few years.

[237gmoney] 23/11/2007 11:50

See WJ it doesnt take long to pick up pace with these things once they get going.....I see 14 locations have now opened up where you can get the cards as well...

While searching through links I found some old stuff which I havent seen on here before regarding the FRAC card which is even bigger than TWIC.



says "...Pennsylvania chose VeriSign's Shared Service Provider PKI for FRAC"
which is IGP.

also a new report just out on the real ID...I didnt read it all so dont know if its any good...

[wjccghcc] 23/11/2007 11:32

TWIC rollout gathering pace:

Wednesday, November 7th, 2007
Tacoma port workers among first to get federal security cards
Posted by Kelly Kearsley @ 06:01:49 am

Today workers at the Port of Tacoma will become the first in the region to enroll in the Department of Homeland Security's Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) program.

Under the program, the Transportation Security Administration checks the background of workers – including longshore and truck drivers – with unescorted access to secure areas of port facilities and ships to ensure they are not security threats.

People obtaining TWIC cards must provide biographic and biometric information, such as fingerprints, sit for a digital photograph and successfully pass a security threat assessment, according to a TSA Web site.

The "smart cards," the TSA reports, will contain a fingerprint template that links the card to its carrier.

[More:]

How exactly will they be used? This from the TSA:

During the initial rollout of TWIC, workers will present their cards to authorized personnel, who will compare the holder to his or her photo, inspect security features on the TWIC and evaluate the card for signs of tampering. The Coast Guard will verify TWICs when conducting vessel and facility inspections and during spot checks using hand-held scanners, ensuring credentials are valid. A second rulemaking will propose enhanced access control requirements, including the use of electronic readers by certain vessel and facility owners and operators.

The ports of Tacoma, Honolulu and Baton Rouge all start TWIC enrollment today. Including them, five ports are actively enrolling in the nationwide program.

"TWIC will be a crucial part of our multi-layered risk based approach to maritime security," said Coast Guard Commander Mark McCadden, chief of prevention at Sector Seattle. "It will strengthen security and access control to the port and on thousands of other maritime facilities and vessels."

[237gmoney] 23/11/2007 09:07

Gemalto's 3q results look pretty good....

"...Gemalto said sales of government ID cards and documents jumped by nearly 40%, led by more e-passport shipments to the United States and national ID cards to the Gulf state of Oman. Government programs anchored sales in Gemalto's renamed "Security" business unit, with revenue climbing in the unit by 15% to 43.4 million euros at constant exchange rates."

Seems the demand for ID cards is growing fast.....

[jailbird] 22/11/2007 14:05

ttb,

nah i do not reckon, anyhow....i will have a large buy order in at 30p if it gets there.

[taurusthebear] 21/11/2007 23:16

Looking forward to topping-up sub-30p. In this market, I suspect I may well get the chance in the near future! :0)

[237gmoney] 21/11/2007 15:56

Nice to see one of our brothers sticking up for us at the big round table....

Seems like Gemalto will have first dibs on the Real ID......which is good news for IGP...

[igoe104] 21/11/2007 14:23

yep SMALL caps always suffer. im glad im off to cuba next week, fed up of watching myself getting poorer and poorer every day.

[237gmoney] 21/11/2007 13:21

Almost back to where we started a few weeks back.....and nothing to do with what IGP have said or done....

[237gmoney] 20/11/2007 16:04

It seems TWIC is really ramping up with most of the ports finished before March 2008......

If they stick to that Time table IGP will be printing money next!

They now say more than 1m cards will be issued but we know this will be more


and at $132.50 a pop plus $60 for a replacement and the cards only last 5 years so they will have to do it all over again in 2012/13.....

Cant be long now till results so I should expect this to spike up soon....

[jailbird] 20/11/2007 08:03

I like to see the Oberthur and IGP collaboration for a National ID
work out in Europe.

Also unlike the UK.. i like the US' way of having a HSPD-12 or FIPS compliant
standard. This way you know what you gonna get and it will be across many areas.
This has certainly helped IGP get many contracts as their product meets the 'standard'.

I do not if the UK have anything of this sort