Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 21/6/2007 07:59

Ram,

SMRT is an equally pure play. Both look cracking investments 18 months out. SMRT is already profitable and is almost certain to win big from the Concessionary Bus Travel Bill currently making its way through Parliament and due to begin implementation in the spring.....

DYOR.

G.

[rambutan2] 21/6/2007 01:22

to my mind, if you believe in the growth of the smart card, then it's difficult to see how igp won't be a big winner. in fact it must be just about the purest play on smart card schemes that there is.

i find it difficult to see how they won't improve on their 07 results, even if stuff does get delayed - which it will, of course.

which isn't to say that other stuff won't unexpectedly kick in.

but trying to predict earnings over the next couple of years is a mugs game imho.

however, what is clear is that MyId is prob being touted in some form or other in just about every big smart card scheme that comes up for grabs on the planet. and it's not an easy mkt to get into for new competition.

and having raised the placing money, even in a worst case scenerio ie similar results to 07, igp's got enough cash (£1.3m) for approx another 2yrs.

yes, i remain convinced that igp will have its day in the sun and amply reward those with the patience and vision to wait for it!


PS: igoe, prob worth sticking in header that shares in issue is 36,093,741 and fully diluted shares is 48,735,009.

[carly2] 20/6/2007 09:24

Hi igoe,
Yes, I agree that it will be available Q3 - but that does not mean that contracts will be in place with an end user by then - and that income will arise for igp in Q3, Q4, all of 2008 etc. Do you see what I mean - they can have all of the tie ups they want - but until contracts are announced -and then rolled out, income is still minimal - and business at breakeven only.
Thanks again and best wishes

[igoe104] 20/6/2007 09:07

HERE YOU go carly. im sure it will help in getting the bigger contracts.



TAURUS are you making yourself down to chile, then onto easter island. if you are that will make me real jealous. its a part of the world i,ve never been. i,ll go one day, in the medium future.

[taurusthebear] 19/6/2007 23:54

WJC - perhaps I should´ve said that many people no doubt consider the company, if at all, to be blue-sky jam-tomorrow. If you believe it offers more realistic prospects than that, then surely there is no need to worry about a few pence off the share price, which is still higher than it was a year ago.

There´s a big difference between no profits in 12 months time, and 2 million quid. It´s all finger-in-the-air stuff, that´s the problem!

Thanks igoe, been in Peru 5 days, just getting to grips with the lingo. Hasta Luego! :0)

[wjccghcc] 19/6/2007 23:46

Sorry Carly but I don't know anything that's not in the public domain. The main revenue drivers in the short-term from contracts won are the HSPD-12 rollout (deadline Oct 08), TWIC rollout (deadline Dec 08) and the NHS. The bulk of HSPD-12 issuance is likely to happen in H2 this year and H1 next year while most TWIC issuance will probably be next year. The NHS are anticipated to require another 500k licenses which may be spread over both years.

The 19% and 22% sales growth was for Mar 06 and Mar 07 finals. The most recent outlook is:

"The management team is committed to maintaining the Group on its current,
focused course and delivering an accelerated growth in sales and profitability."

That implies at this stage in the year that they see growth in sales accelerating, hence my assumption of 30% sales growth - it may well be less if one of the big projects gets delayed further.

igoe is right in that they keep things close to their chest but that's the nature of the business they're in. KBC notes there are over 400 federal agencies but there have only been HSPD-12 contract announcements for about 70 - the rest are either unawarded or the agency has requested confidentiality.

Regarding revenues from the Oracle tie up, a Q3 rollout means revenues are unlikely until next year - however compatability with Oracle databases is probably a requirement to win some of the larger contracts such as national ID cards.

[carly2] 19/6/2007 20:35

Hi WJ,
I know this is really difficult - moving target, delayed contracts etc - but you have just mentioned the assumption of 30% growth for 2008 (is that y/e March 2009?)- when in your 12 June post you mentioned that magic word 'stellar' for 2008.
I get the feeling that you know alot of what is going on. If I would be able to put you on the spot, would you go for 30% or stellar for the y/e 31/03/08 ( or 31/03/09)- and if so why?
Similarly, igoe mentioned that IGP was keeping alot of information close to it's chest - having previously mentioned that he thought that the Oracle tie up would lead to Q3 revenues (which I was certainly not aware of). Is this true - and what other news is out there?
I would really welcome comments from both WJ and igoe. If you are not prepared to reply on the bb, please say so and I could let you have my e mail
I do appreciate both of your comments on the board - you are obviously very clued up. Best wishes all

[wjccghcc] 19/6/2007 18:37

That's a bit harsh, Taurus - a PE of 14 for one of the top two smart card management companies in the world in a market with forecast rapid growth for the next 5 years?

They've grown sales by 19% and 22% in the last 2 years. With the beginnning of HSPD-12 and TWIC ramp-up together with a full year of the OEM partners, it'd be nice to see 30% sales growth this year. On their flat cost base with 97% margin that gives a PBT of around 400k and a PE of 37. Assume 30% growth in 2008 as well and PBT rises to 1.3mm putting them on a 2008 PE of 11 (the wonders of operational gearing).

This year, they're still highly dependent on a few large contracts whose timing is very hard for to predict but in 2008 this dependency should reduce enough for more reliable forecasting.

[igoe104] 19/6/2007 15:37

I purchased over 9,600 last week,carly. wished id waited. i,m sure this time next year the share price will be completely different outlook. but as you know markets aren,t great for aim companies this time of year.
I,ll be looking to top up in the near future, but i don,t want to put to much risk into igp, so i,ve also been buying star, sog, jmc, ebt, as well.
At the current price igp are a bargain.

PS hope your travelling is going well taurus.

[taurusthebear] 19/6/2007 15:13

At under 14m market cap., you´d have to be of the opinion that IGP are going to generate profits of about a million quid in the next year to justify it. At present, it appears that only a few on here think that, or are prepared to wait for it... :0)

[carly2] 19/6/2007 15:02

So, given all that we know, who thinks 40p is a fair buy price? (given that the recent placing is sufficient for present and future needs). If the picture is the same (if not better as time goes on), why shouldn't we all collude to buy loads more?!! Who's in?

[wjccghcc] 19/6/2007 00:07

They're the corporate broker so don't have a view.

Nice new website if you haven't checked it out yet:

www.intercede.com

[3 wheels on my wagon] 18/6/2007 19:07

What's KBC's view on the company, does anyone know? Would it help I wonder, if they had a nomad that actually did something to help promote the company?

[igoe104] 18/6/2007 18:12

HEALTH CARDS ARE STARTING TO HAPPEN IN USA. WITH ONE OF OUR PARTNERS.

[igoe104] 18/6/2007 16:20

THEY have seemed to have improved there web site.

HERES something else, thats popped up of interest.

Shareholder Number of ordinary shares % of issued share capital
RA Parris 6,412,232 18.9
Pershing Keen Nominees Ltd. 3,498,220 10.3
Plastic Technologies Ltd. 3,147,436 9.3
Cogefin (Bermuda) Ltd. 1,582,541 4.7
Barclayshare Nominees Ltd. 1,351,464 4.0
React Investment Ltd. 1,344,683 4.0
AM Walker 1,248,077 3.7
Vidacos Nominees Ltd. 1,205,904 3.6

PS put (star) in your watchlist, it seems its a company in a interesting market.

[rambutan2] 18/6/2007 15:57

we are paying the price for the 33p placing which set a nice marker for the shares to drift towards during this (not unexpected) dead news time. imho

[igoe104] 18/6/2007 15:54

I think the company is paying the price, for not being upfront on a number of issues.
One issue we should have known by now, is how much will igp make from each smart/id card. at the moment the company keeps saying, they are unsure about revenues. but surely you don,t sign up to a business deal, with-out knowing what sort of profit the company is going to make from each deal from each of partners.

WHILE there are one or two uncertainies around the business, your always going to get folks watching the company rather than buying into the company.

THIS is really a silly and frustrating situation at the moment, you would think that the company has had a profit warning, by looking at the chart. when really the situation is looks rosy for the company over the next 12-24 months.

as they say no pain, no gain. you have to remember the company has fallen 3p on 17.5k worth of sells.

[carly2] 18/6/2007 15:17

What on earth is going on here? This is ridiculous...

[jailbird] 18/6/2007 13:38

u r right though...newsflow keeps the price stable..

[jailbird] 18/6/2007 13:31

hmmmm.

There was me thinking for a getting a few more...bottle has gone for now.

Having bought some more @60p...i feel a bit pee'd really.

If u believe then good buying opp at the mo...but will it go lower yet?

[igoe104] 18/6/2007 12:46

I must say, i,m very disappointed with the companies stance, in not having the shareholders holders interest at heart.
companies have a duty to look after shareholders value, and at the moment igp aren,t doing it.
they have had lots of opportunities to keep the news flow going, but the company at the moment are keeping there cards to there own chest.(WITH alot of details)
lets hope there is something up and coming from the company, to puts some life in this one.
BECAUSE lack of news is bad for AIM companies

[jailbird] 14/6/2007 21:35

thanks WJ,

i'm not good with using the correct PE's..but you figures look reasonable and realistic then.

[wjccghcc] 14/6/2007 16:46

jailbird, it was an illustration of their operational gearing, not a prediction.

I was using turnover growth of 25% pa over the next 2 years to give the 1.8mm incremental sales. With their 97% gross margin that would all drop to the bottom line. For that growth, a PE of 25 is pretty conservative.