Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[jam4u2] 24/6/2021 08:27

Agree Kemche - I think the clean-up in Accounts and accounting procedures will help to convince those that were suspicious of IDP's results to pay attention. It will also provide complete transparency and line of sight of true reporting numbers. This means (for me at least) the Board then need to deliver in 2021/22 Financial Year.

If Lockdown is properly lifted then I would feel a sense of confidence. It will be for me though at least another year of buy/hold through the next 12 months.

Key will be true H2 profit number and hopefully they kept neutral through covid (at least). The other key thing will be the cash position and how much they burned. I am hoping for £2.5m cash.

[kemche] 23/6/2021 14:05

The new BOD have all to prove, they certainly seem to have the credentials plus a sufficient shareholding too.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/6/2021 13:58

I think Ward did acquire more shares in May 21. Either way, he still has a highly influential holding IMHO. And therefore plenty of motivation to turn this round. Early days still and I doubt this year will be transformational. Hard to know whether restricted foreign travel will help, hinder or prove neutral for IDP. But we should start seeing some major improvements in results next year, assuming the Board delivers what it promised (by repelling CRL).

[jam4u2] 23/6/2021 13:33

Well, for a start the holdings have been diluted so mark ward and co wont have as much influence now, unless of course he starts acquiring more shares. That said the Board holdings are not insubstantial.

But for me, I am not too bothered what if anything CRL may or may not do. I am though very focussed on what the new Board do and on paper they look good, but they really need to start showing what they have been/are doing.

[lord loads of lolly] 23/6/2021 12:34

If Creightons took a second pop at it, they'd almost certainly succeed, as this would be a clear sign that management had failed to turn things round. But I believe they're barred from doing so for 6 months from the last attempt (don't quote me on that!) Also, given management's robust rejection of their previous bid, they're presumably pretty confident that things CAN be turned round. Either that, or they're supremely arrogant & heading for disaster. Which I don't actually believe, as Mark Ward seems to be a very smart cookie and has plenty of skin in the game.

[muzmanoz] 23/6/2021 10:13

Yep, I'm expecting the figures to look awful due to impairments. £10m turnover would be fair.They do seem to be in big push sale/discount mode across social media at the moment but then better margins selling direct.

[kemche] 23/6/2021 09:47

Fair points jam.

[jam4u2] 23/6/2021 09:24

End of year is nearly upon us. What are thoughts/expectations or what good might look like?

My take is somewhere near to £10m revs will be very good, given its still a Covid-ravaged year. Hopefully this half was profitable to help bring down some of the 1.0m loss in H1. AT the very least, I'll be looking for breakeven so we stay static.

I am mindful of this from the H1 Trading Update RNS from Mon 11th Jan where this was statted:

"The Board will also be undertaking an impairment review exercise on certain intangible items on the balance sheet to reflect the impact of Covid-19 and recent trading. This impairment is likely to be substantial but will have no material impact on the Company's prospects, trading outlook or working capital position. The Board expects to conclude this review ahead of the financial year end (30 June 2021)."

I draw particular emphasis on "This impairment is likely to be substantial but will have no material impact on the company's prospects, trading outlook or working capital position". I hope this will mean we will get rid of or write down some of the somewhat dodgy accounting principles that the old lot (read Joe Beyer) was employing by valuing Customer Lists, the valuation applied to ProLong/LifeSciences that clearly is not delivering. If so, this will have a paper-based impact that will likely inflate the loss on paper by a big amount, but I would take that positively as the new team clean up the company.

Key will then be what the company will do to improve in 2021/22 going forward. Its all been very slow to happen and the pace needs to be upped, with visible progress being made in delivering results. Otherwise, I can see a Creightons coming back for another go and this time, it would be difficult resist.

[doc robinson] 16/6/2021 16:26

Yes , with peak tanning season upon us starting to move in the right direction .

[gleach23] 16/6/2021 16:23

SP has strengthened after that 309,362 trade. Possibly cleared a blockage?

[lord loads of lolly] 02/6/2021 15:02

Yup. 58p at today's CRL price. But Creighton's Feb 2021 offer was presumably rejected on the basis it undervalued IDP's longer term prospects. And 3 or 4 months doesn't equal long term. That doesn't necessarily mean IDP management was right to reject it. Just that it's too early to tell.

[doc robinson] 02/6/2021 10:04

Offer from Creightons would now be just under 60 p !!!

[doc robinson] 27/5/2021 15:50

Ready for take off , buyers at 36 p would have been a bargain a year ago !!

[kazoom] 22/5/2021 20:12

Sh1t happens vk.

I got out in Jan for a 28% loss which was quite painful.

All in all though I am happy that I acted decisively and promptly then.

I think we need to take the lessons from such painful loses. I still believe my original investment hypothesis broadly stands and might buy back on signs of positivity.

However, the liquidity problem announced in Jan was I think a clear sell signal and I don't just say that because the subsequent price action has "proved me right". There was a risk injected that could have been worse than has actually happened, could have been better too of course - but you had to be seriously optimistic to stake too much on that.

I've learnt that I can "love" a company and its prospects, but not like the risk vs. reward of owning the shares at a particular time.

[value king] 22/5/2021 15:17

I have been stopped out, a painful journey having bought at the highs

[gleach23] 21/5/2021 20:13

220k trade reported after the bell. Hopefully will help clear the path for a run back up over 40p

[lord loads of lolly] 21/5/2021 19:24

gleach23 - many thanks for clarifying. I wasn’t familiar with that term. In my book, slamming something always implies negativity. Guess I need to read up on modern slang! Thanks again.

[gleach23] 21/5/2021 11:58

lord loads...I would imagine it merely means IDP was presented as part of the Stock Slam event. Damian Cannon's intro explains what the slam is about - it's a presentation of a stock idea by an existing holder who is obviously more likely to highly rate it than 'slam' it but the presentation was very measured imo.

[lord loads of lolly] 21/5/2021 11:49

tomps2 - when you say "slammed", I presume you mean "highly rated". I'd encourage others to listen to the interview and they'll soon see what I mean.

[doc robinson] 21/5/2021 11:02

Seems the company with new management is just turning the corner usually a good time to invest . it may still be snapped up by one of its peers.

[kemche] 21/5/2021 10:35

A fair summary there Tom.

[tomps2] 21/5/2021 09:47

Innovaderma (IDP) was ‘slammed’ by Francis Evans in the Stockopedia/piworld Stockslam held on Wednesday 19th May. Listen to Francis' pitch at 31m33s

Video:

Podcast:

[lord loads of lolly] 07/5/2021 15:48

brumm1875 - Yes, things certainly look promising, though we've been here before with IDP. Of your 5 points, I'd say D & E offer the most potential. Having turned down Creightons' offer out-of-hand, there's a lot now riding on management. And if they get it wrong, Creightons could well be back with an even cheekier low-ball offer. Only this time, management would be hard-pressed to dismiss it. Meaning shareholders would NOT be happy. But Mark Ward's background & experience look highly relevant. He has a track record of turning something small into something highly valuable, then flipping it. And he now owns by far the largest stake in IDP. I've also considerable respect for Octopus. And they recently upped their skin in the game very substantially here.

[brumm1875] 07/5/2021 14:32

I expect the shares to have a good run over the next few months. All stars are aligned. A) Very oversubscribed fund raise out of the way,B) UK lockdown lifting, C) Tanning season in full swing, D) New management with a lot to prove and E) Institutional shareholders building positions e.g. Octopus. Enjoy the ride!

[doc robinson] 07/5/2021 14:12

Looking strong in a much better financial position following the fund raising at 4.5 million timing good for lifting lockdown and at the same time peak tanning season . These will look cheap in the next few months ?