Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[blewco] 02/6/2017 13:12

I think it will bounce before that, too much enthusiasm with this share.

[top tips] 02/6/2017 13:11

Personal view of thread host 'hottingup'

I suggest a year 2017 market capitalisation for IDP of £120m (999p) and a year 2018 figure of £200m (1665p) with an eventual takeover above $1 billion. (hottingup, 2/6/2017)

N.B.
a) Interview with IDP's Harris C (1/6/2017) - Starts at 8 min 15 sec:


b) Market Capitalisation of recently listed cosmetics company W7L = £192m (1/6/2017)

[blewco] 02/6/2017 13:06

remarkomsoc. I don't think it will plunge that far.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 02/6/2017 13:04

Would asda rather sell something for 4pound and make 2pound profit or sell the same mix of ingredients presented in a branded bottle for 16 pound and make 8pound profit.

Look foward to ASDA stokking our products.

Good luck all

[malcolmmm] 02/6/2017 13:03

Massive ground floor opportunity here. They will save 70% in production costs by moving from OZ to the UK. Another few deals must be in the pipeline imo.
I reckon a surge in the share price later this afternoon.

[blewco] 02/6/2017 13:02

I feel this may be running out of steam with this current rise, will wait for next dip before topping up.

[andyr42] 02/6/2017 12:50

Well done Croas, facts speak louder than any words here including mine. Respect!

[top tips] 02/6/2017 12:41

They will be doing at least £2 million a month this summer. The listing on ASOS this month will give exposure to several hundred million more customers. Revenues can only rocket. The management know exactly what they are doing and how to deliver.

[top tips] 02/6/2017 12:30

Bought a few more. This is gonna be massive.

[croasdalelfc] 02/6/2017 12:30

Back to the facts: approx 535 products sold on SD.com on 1st/2nd June@£15 a pop we get £8k or a run rate of £250k a month. That is just one website.Then add the sales from 800 stores. A finger in the air very low estimate is another 300 sales giving another £150k a month and a total of £400k just from SD.This is a combination of fact, guesswork and extrapolation but shows the potential monthly sales in June - the peaking tanning season

[glennborthwick] 02/6/2017 12:21

yep I'm in for a free ride now having gone from 150p and selling 40% at 340p

[che7win] 02/6/2017 12:20

glenn,
that earlier post is my current thinking, its probably safe to buy up to 150p (P/E 30 on broker consensus).

At these prices, well, hope the musical chairs continue for you, they may well do so, the 'brains' behind the operation is doing a good job.

I'm more interested at buying businesses at cheap prices or shorting at high.

[malcolmmm] 02/6/2017 12:17

Those following the herd have made a fortune here up 30% in the last few days. The usual envious disappointed know it all posters who most probably attracted by a shorting opportunity have arrived. Keep a stop loss and enjoy the ride

[kemche] 02/6/2017 12:13

che7win = indictment of the English education system.

[glennborthwick] 02/6/2017 12:11

che7win - check out your posts from the 5th of May when the share price was a touch over 215p. Here we are one month later and the share price is 50-60% higher!!

At some point you will be right but your guessing with a finger in the wind.



have thought February would be at least £600,000.
che7win
5 May '17 - 11:43 - 4256 of 5292    0   0
That is a good statistic, a well made point.

However, right now, you are paying 100 times profits historically, probably 50 times current year profits.
That is high, albeit the business is from a low base.

You need 50% growth, year in, year out to sustain these prices IMHO. I think 150p is safe area to buy, I am not brave enough to buy at this price.

The growth may well be possible, but no business can expect to sit on 65% margins and not expect heavy competition.

Especially in a business that has no patents for tanning, anyone can copy it and the competition will not watch without a fight.
As example, you can buy sun cream in Poundland for £1 all day long, margins used to be high, not anymore.

Tanning is a commodity, it uses natural ingredients that the competition can copy and undercut.

Don't expect those margins to last, maybe that's why they are so interested in hair loss and premature ejaculation.
Which at least have high barriers to entry, whether they are successful or not is another matter.

All IMHO, don't follow the herd, it's dangerous.

[andyr42] 02/6/2017 12:10

As you heard from Haris C over 90% of retail products are unprotectable. What are you doing here anyway che7win if you have no interest??? Once you establish a brand it's difficult to knock it off the perch. I can buy a T-shirt for £5 but the same T-shirt with Nike badge on sells for £30. Are you so thick che7?

[ihatemms] 02/6/2017 12:08

Che7win - why don't you put your arguments to L'Oreal, Channel etc- these companies should have been bust years ago!

[che7win] 02/6/2017 12:05

By the way, I said from the very outset before the clowns arrived that this company was all about marketing - Skinny Tan's value is in it's trade marks, not the product ingredients which are not protectable.

If you know anyting about business, you will know that high margins attact competition like a moth to a light, margins as high as in the Self-tanning industry just won't last, they can't, that's business.

DYOR, AIMHO

[che7win] 02/6/2017 12:04

cross,
it's nothing to do with the product or it's 'quality' imho, or at least, as Chaudry said yesterday in the Vox interview, it’s 5% product, the rest is really marketing.

What differentiates this from ASDA selling their £4 product against ST at multiples? Just marketing – which is why marketing costs tripled H1. Margins will come down, they have to – indeed IDP know this which is why they will sell another product for supermarkets on less margins.

I expect the whole sector to suffer margin erosion as really self tanning will follow suncream into the pound shops, ingredients cost peanuts after all 

[melf] 02/6/2017 12:02

che7, the Asda Analogy is ridiculous. There's always a place for branded premium products.

The same accusation could be made for any premium product such as Fever Tree.... I'm sure Asda's tonic water is a fraction of the cost.

[kemche] 02/6/2017 12:02

Yes, but what about Asda eh?

[croasdalelfc] 02/6/2017 11:57

Che7win - 500 ST products have been sold on Superdrug.com in the last 24 hours.They send out 24000 deliveries a month via their DTC channel up from 10000 in H1.Why do people pay about £15-£25 when they can get the cheap stuff for £4?Because the product is QUALITY