Indigovision Share Discussion Threads

[crystball] 26/9/2013 12:29

I decided to sell my IND shares this morning and will watch from the sidelines. Some of the information and commentary in the results alarmed me.

There is no evidence of a recent upturn in sales. There is no evidence of an upturn in sales in the US despite very positive vibes given recently.

Overheads have risen significantly and these will continue in the coming year.

The most alarming phrase is in the outlook statment where it says....

'The benefits of the substantial increase in headcount in the sales team made in the second half of last year are not currently expected to show through in revenues until the latter part of 2014.' The latter part of 2014!

Taking that on board, I can't see how the house brokers Revenue estimate for year end July 2014 of £36.2 million can be achieved. Therefore a downgrade is likely IMO.

On the face of it the proposed final dividend payment of 5.5p is positive, but is it sustainable? Cash balances are going to be a bit tight after paying almost half of it in dividends.

In the Asia Pacific commentary it says....

'The team was involved in a very large tender process for the majority of the reporting period which concluded, unfortunately unsuccessfully, in August.'

Is this why sales targets were missed? Not quite the same as suggesting that large project revenue was delayed and missed the year end.

All in all very disappointing.

[samenic] 26/9/2013 09:18

Though pretty bland overall they seem to have addressed many of the issues holding them back,even changing their financial year,but its difficult to get excited about.They still seem to have the right products and seemingly the right structure now can't see why it is not more successful???

[deanowls] 26/9/2013 09:16

i agree Kiwi, Latin America looking like it could become the biggest region soon also, especially with Brazil world cup and olympics to come and as they upgrade their infastructure. Lets hope that the shares are mopped up at these levels.

[kiwihope] 26/9/2013 08:56

I have no real comment on these results. Not good, not bad. Bit like Jeremy Clarkson's Vectra in the 1990s.

Well, perhaps I have a couple of comments.

I hope they do get some return from the extra sales overheads. It's not good to increase sales manpower by 30% and then see a drop in pretax profits.

It's also interesting that they actually increased headline eps over last year, due to lower tax but still a slight positive.

Finally, no real mention of any specific sales growth targets like last year.

Ho hum ... still waiting for sustained growth.

[iain123] 26/9/2013 08:46

Looks like this is the project that caused the problems and it turned out worse than late.

"The team was involved in a very large tender process for the majority of the reporting period which concluded, unfortunately unsuccessfully, in August"

[deanowls] 25/9/2013 11:42

My hope is that it was delayed orders from the back end that caused the issue and that they have now been booked since that update.

probably wishful thinking on my part!

[layabout] 25/9/2013 11:08

I think we know the results won't be great as they warned of that back in July. It's all about the outlook. The Marcus turnaround plan is nearly 2 years into its 3 year duration so if it's going to have an effect it ought to be showing soon. Will they achieve market rates of growth as the plan calls for rather than underperforming it as they have been? That is the question.

[gengulphus] 24/9/2013 04:44

No, it's New Pistoia who are upping their stake, not HSBC, and the same goes for being confident of decent results. New Pistoia are holding in nominee form with HSBC, so HSBC's nominee company is the legal owner, but that doesn't mean HSBC have any stake in or have taken any view on whether IND does well - any more than my nominee brokers have a stake in my shareholdings with them or have any confidence in my choice of IND to invest in... In both cases, the nominee company is basically just providing a safe-storage-of-shares service.

Gengulphus

[pjhutchy] 23/9/2013 17:48

HSBC upping their stake. They must be confident on decent results this week

[exotic] 23/9/2013 12:06

RNS out... New Pistoia bought another 50,000 shares (probably on the 17th), now holding 12.58%

[fangorn2] 21/9/2013 11:44

"Bumper profits and this will be 420p"

Easy to make any throwaway comment isn't it.

Are you saying you think there will be a profit warning beep_beep?
If so any factuals to back up your prediction?

[beep_beep] 20/9/2013 22:00

Another profit warniong and this will be 180p imho

[pjhutchy] 20/9/2013 21:30

Indigo vision have invested a lot into growing the intellegent surveillance side of their business. They are now well placed to benefit from the growing market. They should do well.

[gengulphus] 20/9/2013 12:02

All it requires is a single investor to have decided to accumulate a position by making multiple trades in the share, each time for as many shares as they can get. Seeing multiple purchases with no or few corresponding sales is likely to cause the market makers to push their prices up, especially with significant news expected within the next week: they need to protect themselves from accumulating a big short position, especially when there is a risk that good news has leaked...

If it is that, the investor has chosen a clumsy way to accumulate a holding, and has probably paid more in higher prices for the later trades than they would have done in commission to a full-service broker to phone a market maker and get them to 'work' the order.

Alternatively, if a number of short-term traders have been wondering whether to take a position on a "buy on the rumour, sell on the news" basis, a single largish purchase could trigger a price rise that in turn triggers the short-term traders into thinking "Aha! There is a positive rumour somewhere - better get in quick!"...

The main point is that such price movements on illiquid shares can literally be set off by a single investor's judgement call about when to make a largish purchase or sale. So I wouldn't read too much into them unless you implicitly trust every other investor's judgement... ;-)

Gengulphus

[kiwihope] 20/9/2013 11:40

Sometimes it seems every single buy or sell moves the price! I guess that suggests there are no big buys or sells being worked.

[bhoddhisattva] 20/9/2013 11:31

Agreed and having been a holder of IND for 4 years am familiar with how tight this share is - but the last two days just looked more than just the usual illiquidity - hence my comment.

[exotic] 20/9/2013 11:30

It looks like the 6,303 buy at 08:21:34 kicked it off, that and the next few buys all coincide with movement on the chart, so no mysterious imbalance there.

The only slightly unusual thing is the number of buys within 36 minutes of opening. However, in the context of it being a Friday and results are out next week, you would expect investors to be finalising their positions, so in the grand scheme of things everything appears within the clearly defined bounds of normallity.

[kiwihope] 20/9/2013 11:13

Actually, results due next Thursday 26th.

This is not a very liquid share so a few transactions can move the price appreciably.

[grahamburn] 20/9/2013 09:33

Results due next Friday, I believe, so could be a rise in anticipation.

[bhoddhisattva] 20/9/2013 09:28

WHat's up? Nothing until yesterday and today with no announcements or news ... just illiquid and ordinary buys moving it or something more substantial?

Up 7% for 14K shares traded? Seems very strange.

Has some news of big order(s) or revenue improvement or corporate action leaked?

[puffintickler] 20/9/2013 09:19

...it floats my boat...

[samenic] 20/9/2013 08:56

Maybe just a rising tide and all..........

[iain123] 20/9/2013 08:43

After the share price being dead to the world for a month it looks like some expect Thurdsays narrative to be very bullish?

[crystball] 13/9/2013 08:30

I am encouraged by the progress made in the US. If IND can succeed in this formerly weak area things may improve for beleagured IND shareholders. I look forward to the detailed breakdown of performance in a couple of weeks time.

[exotic] 05/9/2013 20:44

5 September 2013 15:26

IndigoVision reduces Randon Group's security operation costs by 20%

"With over 11,000 employees and nearly billion in revenue ..."

www.indigovision.com/indigovision-reduces-randon-groups-security-operation-costs-by-20