Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 06/4/2022 18:14

It's in the header Orm.

[officerdigby] 06/4/2022 18:08

Orm 50% share with Buffet.

[jackspratt] 06/4/2022 17:25

No idea on cost but found this which I think details corrective actions and materials needed - section 2.1 onwards.Published 9th March.



Been here with IOG for a good while and cant see any realistic downside from share price recently so topped up on the dip as a result of the RNS the other day - ridiculous but predictable that it dropped on that news for me but hey ho

[orm5] 06/4/2022 17:00

Thanks. I assume Elgood alone should till be producing circa 800k gbp / day to IOG or is there any share in ownership ?Any view on the Southwark costs - assuming that's for the sea bed stabilisation ?

[sludgesurfer] 06/4/2022 16:31

Half the production being shut in isn't helping. Nor is IOG being in the hook for the costs incurred at Southwark.

[orm5] 06/4/2022 16:16

Any views why this is not already higher given the initial flow rates ? Is it because the market is waiting for confirmed long term production rates ?I note some comments about management - is that just delays or something else ?Thanks

[fardels bear] 06/4/2022 09:29

In theory this should be a complete no brainer and yet, and yet I still can't bring myself to buy at these levels. I see the hot money is flowing back into the frackers. Who knows what will happen there but nothing at all has to be the most likely outcome. This parliament has max two more years to run and I'd like to have made my pile and got it somewhere more benign than the vituperative farmyard that uk politics and it has to be said British society will likely become post next general Election Day. Just saying like.

[fardels bear] 06/4/2022 09:24

I'm wondering what will happen when Warren and Charlie are no longer with us. Indeed, will Warren carry on if Charlie goes first? Charlie and he are a team and Charlie is very old.

[anley] 05/4/2022 13:29

Perhaps we should look at GAS prices and what that means for the business.

The Centre of Economics and Business Research a consultancy to big business BUT not to any oil/gas business as far as I could see wrote:

It predicts prices PER THERM will dip only slowly from an average of 180p in 2022 to 160p in 2023 and 2024 and then dip to 118p in 2026 when the two new LNG tanks to be built in Germany come on stream.

Have one poster tried to calculate the P/L for IOG but at much higher figures and if so lets look at a lower range as that will be nearer the mark when dear old Warren comes along with his cash bucket.......remember he only has to buy out the liquidator and the game is over.

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2022 16:29

That makes three of us (including DH who simply says it as it is and has a wealth of experience) - and all of us have been following IOG for a long time. It's just as well that the gas price is substantially higher than the planned for 45p/therm. I have plenty of these already and so also have zero interest in a lower entry point. As I've already said despite management misgivings IOG should do well if the gas price remains significantly higher than the planned for price, which does look to be the case at least medium term and probably for longer.

[fardels bear] 04/4/2022 16:16

I tend to distrust the management here. Maybe I should say I just don't think they are very competent rather than that I distrust them. I am not doing it to gain a lower entry point as I am fully invested elsewhere.

[edgein] 04/4/2022 14:23

Anley,

I'm not in this one very long so cannot comment too much about the management. But it sounds like a fairly minor mechanical issue that's very much temporary, rather than a more serious geological or clean up issue. So no biggie and therefore not much of a sell off. Hopefully Blythe will join Elgood in production again within the next week or so. I joined this one recently as Blythe, Elgood and Southwark are set to add significant cashflow this year at current gas prices. So capital growth but also possible divi perhaps 1 year from now. My 6 to 12 month target remains at between 50-100% gain from my buys in the mid to low 30's. Don't see that being an issue once these first three fields are online. Look at the cap of KIST and its got hundreds of $m in debt too. IOG looks like a bargain in comparison. This isn't one of my bigger oil and gas holdings but I can see quite good upside.

Regards,
Ed.

[anley] 04/4/2022 13:39

There are a few posters who just keep knocking the IOG management - is it in the hope that they can knock the share price and buy in cheaper or is it that they are afraid to sell?

If all the issues that IOG report were really terrible I would have thought that the share price would be down to a much lower level. At a lower level and remembering who controls the business - Buffet and an administrator - do you not think one of these parties would have picked up the telephone?

Another aspect is that if the management is so terrible why is the share price not lower and I suspect that in the background people like me think IOG is a good buy - buy when there is blood on the street.......remember that phrase from a Rothschild.

[edgar222] 04/4/2022 13:28

https://twitter.com/mgrahamwood/status/1510949936069812227?t=MjuL8qn8SabzAycNZ9uD0A&s=19

[melody9999] 04/4/2022 10:38

Dunderheed - thanks for that. I'll watch closely for reserve updates.

O/T
1 I have larger chunk in i3E.
2 CHAR also interesting but pre-revenue. Looks like I sold out too early at 20p this am. Was expecting a reversal but very strong
3 Watching JSE but not done much DD. Whats holding the share price back below 100p?

PS most of my PF is long term holdings outside O&G. I'm back in this sector after a long absence of 10 years or more - anyone remember Burren Energy for eg?

[dunderheed] 04/4/2022 10:25

Of course it's relatively important - but my concerns with IOG are their respective resource views that never go up when transferring to reserves and their reserves views that always seem to go down!

I have seen comparisons to SQZ which are at this juncture beyond comedy.

It's not the communications - let's be clear on that.

My concerns for the medium term are that their business model currently seems to rely on "bolt-on" relatively small assets - (that in my experience - tend to get smaller rather than larger!!) - which relies on technical and operational excellence to "sqeeze" the assets - the one thing that desperately seems to be missing here!

It is difficult to assess true value here at the moment and think there is still potentially (significantly) more upside - once we are further back up the path I will be selling on to increase holdings in the likes of JSE / i3E / - maybe even PHAR but they seem to have (significantly) worse management - but again "reasonable" asset backing.

As ever all IMHO, and DYOR.

[melody9999] 04/4/2022 10:04

Dunderheed - no I am not an oil expert. But happy I amused you! No lectures. I just read your post 613 thats all. It's your decision to stay invested in a company when you have that view on the management

I thought P1 - proven was more important than P2 or P3 but happy to learn what you think.

Watched IOG for a few months, only held for a few weeks.

Others are quick to blame the management - and they might be right to do that - but I think just being a bit smarter with their communications would help.

[dunderheed] 04/4/2022 09:31

Melody referring back to your post 615 (I think).
Do you actually work in E&P - out of interest - as I was amused to hear you lecture me that 1P "is key"?!
Do you mind elucidating, i.e. - is key to what exactly?

Also you seemed to be suggesting I should be selling now - how long have you actually held here out of interest?

EDIT reserved for DC.

[melody9999] 04/4/2022 09:21

I suppose frequent communication is better than none, but tbh I think IOG would be better issuing less RNS ... I get problems happen - just tell us the problem, and then tell us when you have fixed it. Or at most, tell us when it will be fixed and then confirm it.

Todays RNS just tells us it is not fixed yet - unnecessary. When it is fixed, then say "additional process and safety studies and procurement of materials were required before implementing the solution., and these are now complete"

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2022 08:09

Lol DH, I guess I was counting Blythe & Elgood as 2 steps forward then Blythe as the 1 step backwards 😉

[dunderheed] 04/4/2022 07:52

772 I was thinking along those lines, deeply disappointed as ever and continue to shake my head in disbelief.
However to be honest, with gas prices as high as they are, the carrot of finally, finally getting another cluster f of Southwark sorted, this news probably not going to be taken that badly by market as this will get worked out, probably taking three times longer than necessary because (as ever?) no plan B's in place, lol.

Just goes to cement my previous observations (over the (many) years) about this "great team" though, lol.

As ever all, imho of course.

[kibes] 04/4/2022 07:46

A problem with chemical injection on Blythe? This does not inspire confidence. Chemical injection needs a storage tank and a small pump, what is there to go wrong? Should take about half an hour to fix it, not 'further process studies'. Do these people know what they are doing?

[dunderheed] 04/4/2022 07:35

Bh apologies where are the two steps (forward) you reference to? I must have missed those?

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2022 07:17

Par for the course ...two steps forward one step backwards, should get there in the end!