Iog Share Discussion Threads

[itsriskythat] 23/3/2022 12:18

UK NBP gas April 2022 up 10% today at 257p

[phillyaboots] 21/3/2022 12:11

While the UK is driving down demand for fossil fuels on the path to net zero, there will continue to be ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming decades. It is crucial that the UK has a domestic source of oil and gas to maintain energy security, preventing reliance on imports, particularly from Russia.https://www.gov.uk/government/news/north-sea-transition-deal-cuts-emissions-as-clean-energy-transition-continues

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2022 10:59

...perhaps you should have left that no. for someone else lol!

#665 Exactly DH, some of the relative newcomers don't have the full picture of IOG and how we got to this fortuitous point thanks to the elevated gas price. If the gas price was still @ the planned for 45p things could have looked rather different and the share price would be a lot lower. Having said that while gas prices look set to remain high I'm happy to hold despite the issues.

[dunderheed] 21/3/2022 09:39

Reserved for DC.

[dunderheed] 21/3/2022 09:39

Iasha people aren't bloody moaning they are making proper comments about some of the abysmal delivery of the IOG team and certainly a concern for the future, IMHO.

BH can't remember exact CALE terms but easily looked up on RNS, but certainly remember 40 MM paid for past costs plus a potential lump sum for Harvey with a royalty figure for certain (excess) production figures. Did they even take part in (the dud with what 86% cos or thereabouts lol!!) Harvey!?

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 09:28

Thank you Officer

[officerdigby] 21/3/2022 09:25

Bomfin read RNS!,

Not yet.
As production starts expecting to implement some wedging system.

You can hedge before you produce!


OR have any money to hedge.

[bomfin] 21/3/2022 09:19

Do IOG have any hedging. TIA

[aishah] 20/3/2022 22:45

Seriously stop moaning. Everyone knows about all the issues leading to first gas. UK will benefit enormously now with this stream coming on board. We're there now. Flow rates and the rest will follow. I'm buying more as and when I can. Carbon neutral, big company in the making a few years down the line. Wonder how many will hold till then? Dyor

[edgar222] 20/3/2022 21:26

I am still hoping they RNS the cash received by 20th April.

[fardels bear] 20/3/2022 19:19

Tricksy, aren't they.

[officerdigby] 20/3/2022 14:46

For the life of me I have no idea why they didn't give any indication of initial albeit uneven.The excitement would have blown away the II and stales selling out.Or I'm a naive and misjudged this one completely?

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2022 12:42

CalEnergy have a 50% share in production in return for rescuing IOG from the LOG crisis - I don't recall how the bail out worked financially off the top of my head but it was to do with resolving the LOG loan/debt crisis. DH will probably remember the details better than I do.

[fardels bear] 20/3/2022 12:38

How many shares in this has Buffet's lot got?

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2022 12:33

Exactly, those of us that have been following IOG since the LOG days would have all seen that. This has been a success largely due to gas price now being about 5 times the planned for price of just 45p/therm, not so much other factors which have included downgrades and repeated delays at every twist and turn accompanied by shedloads of options.

[fardels bear] 20/3/2022 12:32

It's just the way they always refurbish the trough before doing anything else I'm not so keen on.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2022 12:19

Absolutely FB as I wasn't quoting prices just referencing volume equivalents. Indeed IOG themselves quote boepd equivalents in their presentations and apart from the condensate we all know IOG produce gas.

[fardels bear] 20/3/2022 12:02

I do not see how that can be so.A barrel of oil equivalent is 58 British therm. We can see the daily spot price of a British therm.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2022 10:30

Peel Hunt estimated production figures of 4.9k boepd for 2022 and 6.4k boepd for 2023 so I think the figures above must be considerably higher than are likely to be achieved with average stable rates at Bacton. Target price 82p. For SQZ the target price is 448p.


(link from LSE)

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2022 09:43

I make that:

Blythe:... 8.1k boepd
Elgood: 10.3k boepd + 0.9k bpd condensate

With 50% due to IOG that would be close to 10k boepd which would be a good start to NS production for IOG if these rates are achieved at Bacton. They do seem on the high side compared to previous overall projections, but you have to start somewhere given the lack of any initial rates and apparent wait until "mid-year" for stable rates, although I would hope we would get some information on rates before then.

[bountyhunter] 19/3/2022 18:38

Re flow rates, on July 19 last year IOG CEO Andrew Hockey said: “Delivering our first development well at Elgood is another important milestone for IOG and a surface-constrained maximum well test rate of 57.8mmscf/d and 959bbl/d condensate is encouraging for initial production rates."

Earlier Blythe flow tested to a maximum gas rate of 45.5 mmscf/d through an 80/64th inch choke within two months of spud.

It will be interesting to see how these compare with the initial and/or stable flow rates at the Bacton terminal when we get them.

[bountyhunter] 19/3/2022 17:07

Header updated - introductory paragraph above the News.

[hpcg] 19/3/2022 13:29

They should be conservatively forward selling on the strip. Never committing more than they can produce, not even half perhaps. This directly provides money and it starts to lock in what is not a normal gas price. One bullet in the head, or a ceasefire, and the forward curve will likely start to discount Russian supply. Which is not to say that the supply would actually turn up, but it would be back to living on the front month(s). I don't think either of those is likely by the way, sadly, but the no company should not take extreme binary bets or ignore tail risks. TTF charts are compelling in terms of a new higher base anyway. Also note that now all the cowboy energy middlemen have been bankrupted the remnant will be active in securing supply for the winter.

In terms of share price action I would expect this to consolidate for a while as frustrated existing holders that were waiting to "get back to even" depart and some of those that bought lower de-risk. Chart for the last 21 months looks excellent.