Iog Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 17/3/2022 08:40

Wtgr they don't exhibit too much knowledge through that initial first post but I am interested in the "iniioal" readings clarifications comment?

I made no reference to the expected production profiles at all?

[fardels bear] 17/3/2022 08:31

Surely she means flow rate readings.

[dunderheed] 17/3/2022 08:24

Melody I certainly will be over next few months, rest assured on that.
What are you talking about initioal readings, sorry I don't understand?
Plus absolutely don't agree re 1p, 2p is what l use as benchmark for growth and general industry standard?
Are you talking from debt perspectives only?

[melody9999] 17/3/2022 08:18

Dunderheed - sounds like you need to sell out then.

1P is key. Can you let me know when initoal readings were announced?

The main thing is that these guys are producing now.

[bountyhunter] 17/3/2022 08:09

Well at least the gas price is around 240p for the rest of 2022. It's just as well they only planned for 45p!

[bountyhunter] 17/3/2022 07:37

More share options before initial flow rates, typical!

bountyhunter16 Mar '22 - 13:54 - 604 of 612 Edit
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Yes that was what I was thinking, maybe we will get some more info tomorrow, no more options yet I hope!

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2022 18:53

Well they were selling before Elgood came online so most likely nothing to worry about. If we don't get rates for sometime and they continue selling crossing the 16% boundary which would have to be RNS'd then maybe potentially of some concern. Like DH I would hope IOG would give some indication of initial rates tomorrow with results but that may not happen.

[fardels bear] 16/3/2022 18:43

Wouldya though? Wait all that time and sell on cusp of first gas. Unless.....

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2022 17:05

Lombard appear to have been the seller reducing from 17.99% to 16.86% yesterday.
May be just portfolio balancing after the recent rise approaching first gas.

[edgein] 16/3/2022 14:50

DH,

Yes I notice that, but was commenting on what the company has said in the past and just recently. Elgood was restricted by the rig capacity and Blythe was still recovering lost drill fluid so they didn't know what the condensate flow rate was. So take that with the company's recent statement of not reporting flow rates until both fields have stable rates, then I'd be surprised to see flow data in the financial results, even as a forward statement. That's only a short term matter now anyway as given the reservoir quality etc these wells should clean up fairly quickly. Even if you take a really low estimate, a very conservative one, on flow rates say 3000boepd its still around £500k per day at current gas prices. Personally I'm expecting around 5000boepd choked back rates, pretty enormous cashflow, with Southwark just around the corner now too. A bit like KIST only without the massive debt. If they can get that high with their debt, just shows how cheap IOG are.

Regards,
Ed.

[dunderheed] 16/3/2022 14:32

ED absolutely not stable flow rates reported by tomorrow ie that would be based on information now (!) - I was talking about "initial" rates and that it was in line with "expectations" statement.
Only because of potential "investor distrust"?
All IMHO of course.
BH - SQZ keeps on giving - I bought some recently as high as 270p and was nervous about that!!

[edgein] 16/3/2022 14:22

Thorpe,

The wells came in ahead of the modeled P50 in terms of reservoir quality, Elgood for example was quite deep at over 15,000ft:

"The well was drilled horizontally through the reservoir section to a Total Depth of 15,472ft Measured Depth (MD), intersecting 1,080 ft of high-quality Permian Leman Sandstone reservoir along hole between 14,290 ft MD and 15,370 ft MD, with a net:gross ratio of 91%, good porosity at 12.4% and average log-derived permeability of 13.3 milliDarcies (mD) versus the P50 prediction of 5mD.

Over recent days the well was successfully cleaned up and flow tested. Test rates were ahead of expectations, with a maximum rate of 57.8 mmscf/d of gas and 959 bbl/d condensate through a 80/64(th) inch choke, constrained by surface facilities on the Noble Hans Deul jack-up rig."

For that depth porosity and permeability came in quite good and above expectations, leading to the higher than expected flow rates.

DH,

The company has said they'll report flow rates once both fields have stable production. Given that Elgood has literally just come on, it may still be cleaning up completion fluid and drilling fluid etc I would be surprised to see stable flow rates for both fields tomorrow. Perhaps by the start or end of next week.

Regards,
Ed.

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2022 13:56

O/t SQZ is on a roll after someone spotted the Rhum controller replacement diving vessel heading back home!

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2022 13:54

Yes that was what I was thinking, maybe we will get some more info tomorrow, no more options yet I hope!

[dunderheed] 16/3/2022 13:35

BH - absolutely - initial flow rates nearly always provided - with "previous expected forecast production profiles continue to be expected" messaging.

This is probably why there is still "nervousness" around start up gas - i.e. concerns - in that yes - started up - but not at anywhere near the "expected" rates etc etc.
The problem with this "management" is that they never really seem to hit any targets - both time or technical - and that will remain a "concern" until we get the "hard" facts RNS'd.

I would be mildly disappointed not to hear "initial" rates information (even if only "in line with expectations") tomorrow - but equally not surprised as the "management team" seem to need guidance on every aspect of running this business!

All IMHO of course.

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2022 13:20

I agree ss, and when we see flow rates as long as those are as expected the price should rise.

Malcy's comment "The work has been completed in remarkably short time" is laughable for those of us that have been following this for several years. It is however very fortuitous that the gas price is now so much higher than the planning case of 45p.

Re options yes the new management awarded themselves shedloads before they did much at all! This week has seen success in the end but we do still need an indication as to whether initial flow rates are as anticipated, with results tomorrow maybe we will get an indication but could still be too early. I'm sure I've seen initial flow rates elsewhere when new fields have been announced to have come on line rather than potentially weeks later.

[dunderheed] 16/3/2022 12:59

599 - FFS

Board and employees own 1.2% and options/LTIPs for a further 6.5%
• Compensation is aligned with shareholder returns
• Historical aggregate board, management and in-house contractor salary and fee
sacrifices into options of approximately £2.25m

LTIPS - 6.5% - near to all time lows of their own making and just for providing bog standard operational performances?!
Again Salary "sacrifices" - at relatively small share prices - again at their own making?!

All IMHO and well done BOD - you're really aligned with the share-holders who bought at much higher prices than them!

PS reserved for DC!!

[sludgesurfer] 16/3/2022 12:48

I do feel that the bringing on of the second well has eliminated any engineering issues associated with the well and infrastructure of the first and made me more comfortable. I.e. they wouldn't have brought on the 2nd were there issues with the infrastructure. Given the history of this line plus the significant mods at the reception facility this is not insignificant. Sounds obvious but until you have product coming out the end of your line and see data from the sensors at your well and processing facilities data you just don't know.

[edgein] 16/3/2022 12:41

I like those companies that keep their investors up to date:



Quite the drilling frenzy planned form Southwark onwards over the summer.

Regards,
Ed.

[dunderheed] 16/3/2022 12:32

Yes but it didn't come in anywhere near as the estimated reserves CB7 - what is your point i.e. that because it had been drilled before it automatically defers to an 86% COS and their hands are tied or, does it take some G&G inputs from the "management team" to arrive at that figure - who have to date got all of their exploration / appraisal estimates wrong?!

[thorpematt] 16/3/2022 12:16

TLST
I reckon there are no catches ,but we do have risks, 2 of: -

1. Execution risk
2. Gas price

Gas price is, as gas price does. So lets not go there for now.

Execution risk of course is mostly technical, certainly IOG has been very lucky with its timing because just at the point when it hits first real revenue the gas price takes off. This dimiinishes the impact of any technical issues because unlike most fledgling companies it is not going to be strapped with debt and low revenues. It can just sort them out using cashflows.

I am familiar with 2 of the NEDs here. The Chair is from a technical background (I was surprised to see her at the position). Also Neil Hawkings I am familiar with. Both have a lot of experience. Both have seen projects fail to materialise of late due to lack of funds.

Hawkings was at PMO when they really did bite off far to much to chew (the CEO resigned, the share price went up when CFO took over). Despite Hawkings exuberance and positivity much of PMOs asstes were under-funded, always destined to go nowhere.

MacCauley was tech Manager at RKH (their Falkland assets were operated by PMO - see above). These experiences (totally out of their control) would no doubt have been iritating to say the least.

What I suspect they liked about IOG was that this is actually going to happen and funding is not going to get in the way. So long story short, I think they will handle the executuon risk just fine.

On flow rates: Totally normal that the way reservoirs behave has to be monitored for a reasonable period, otherwise its just BS. Perfectly normal. I have not looked at porosity, permeability or any of the other factors but I dont see why any of the CPRs wouldn't have done the maths properly.

[cb7] 16/3/2022 12:12

dunderhead - the 86% cos is because the fields have been drilled before.

[marvelman] 16/3/2022 09:24

Relevant points DH

[dunderheed] 16/3/2022 09:14

Rre more than doubled since then and had you reinvested those funds (as they could have negotiated a share swap at or around 25p per share I'd have estimated) you'd have probably done better than leaving the money here?

As one poster on lse correctly pointed out I have significantly profited from investing in IOG but could have made more elsewhere, imho and it doesn't stop me from pointing out all their short comings, of which there are very very many. Again, imho.