Iog Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 29/3/2022 12:50

Apologies BH you're quite right, I forgot here but I did include in my LSE posts!!
Cheers for the reminder you are of course completely correct!

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 12:44

Very comprehensive and a true account, but you missed Q3 sliding to Q4 for Southwark first gas ;-)

At least the initial flow rates are good and they have finally decided to tell us those ahead of the 'mid-year' update!

[dunderheed] 29/3/2022 11:16

F me - was sure I checked RNS on ADV at 07.04 and nothing here so having got some mates over, had to make a massive breakfast - which was great fun actually.

Good to see UWE saying nothing else matters except for the big picture (then makes ridiculous OTT expectations of production profiles shwoing a complete lack of under-standing as normal) - well the big picture certainly is "management" are lower quartile re Southwark and many other examples however...

1. Am very happy about the (initial production) profiles mentioned - hoping the current downtime due to "chemicals" is likely very temporary.
2. Good to finally hear the cluster f over at Southwark was admitted as not insured and for their "account" - but really should have been insured - I fully understand not covered under the normal OEE insurances but not expensive and best to keep all bases covered when you're a "smallie" especially when the asset is so material - so from my opinion a (major) f up - but glad they've admitted it and can understand "others" potentially agreeing with "IOG" perspective.
3. Still think considering time taken - drilling management - and hence senior ops management found "wanting" due to - what in my opinion looks like - initially flapping about sucking their thumbs "hoping" things would get better - especially knowing they hadn't adequately planned for B, C and D scenarios - again all IMHO.

However all in, am reasonably happy where we are now - all things considering - disappointed about the current production operations f up - but what more can you expect of this motley crew?
All IMHO and best of luck all!

[tonytyke2] 29/3/2022 10:24

Overall excellent flow rate news (imo), certainly beating my expectations. Topped up just under 36.5p this morning, whilst the very short term Blythe news was in temporary spotlight. Good luck everyone!

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 10:00

NBP Gas...
273.64GBP
CHANGE
27.87(+11.34%)

[sludgesurfer] 29/3/2022 09:48

I'm very pleased with these rates. As usual, they're tinged with the negatives and that's what the market has focussed on.

That's the difficulty with NUIs. You have a mechanical issue offshore and you have to mobilise a team of guys to go out by helicopter to fix it. No small undertaking (or cost) even if its just a 5 minute fix. Hopefully it is and the issue isn't at the XT.

Overall, I'll sleep easier.

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 08:44

Topped up now that we have some positive initial flow rates with the price still down and gas prices looking set to remain at historically high levels for at least some time.

[jeanesy] 29/3/2022 08:42

i think this will end up blue today now the initial selling has stopped and peolpe read the RNS properly

[melody9999] 29/3/2022 08:34

PI's with short time horizons instead of looking at big picture IMV. But the company also seems to find it necessary to give almost day to day reporting on operations.

[edgein] 29/3/2022 08:22

Edgar,

Very true, Elgood is doing those broker flow rates by itself currently. :) The positives in that news release way outdo the only minor single negative. Its not as if Blythe didn't produce, its doing 40mmcfd before the minor intervention, or max test rate. Its as if the market expected the initial flow rates to be above max test rates. The acid injection may increase the initial flow rates and could give then a stable liquids flow once all the drill fluids etc recovered.

Regards,
Ed.

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 08:21

Yes I felt the same when I saw the RNS headline mm! Initial flow rates exceed expectations might have been a better title!

[marvelman] 29/3/2022 08:16

Thanks Edgein//Edgar..very reassuring after that dreaded "operational update" RNS.

[edgar222] 29/3/2022 08:15

EdgeinCompletely agree. A monsterBroker was using 50mmscf/d to model and predict.I was hoping for 70mmscf/d.They are talking (with caveats) of 90mmscf/d.Gas price 245p and relatively stable.Thats £1.1m(stg) to IOG per day net of farmout.The other niggles and operational issues are covered by that sort of cashflow, for me.

[edgein] 29/3/2022 08:12

Jeansey,

Seems like they're focusing on the minor interruption to Blythe. The test news on Blythe suggested it was still returning drill fluids on test so couldn't establish condensate flow rate amounts. Must still be similar, the acid injection should help clean that up. I was anticipating 3,000-5000boepd net start up rates for IOG (including condensate). According to today its 15,000boepd gross for the gas alone (7500boepd net). At current gas prices that's a monster. Southwark drilling still due for mid-April too. Overall very +ve, strange initial share price reaction. The fact that they brought these two wells on at maximum test rates is very +ve about their view on these wells.

Regards,
Ed.

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 08:01

A somewhat mixed bag but (positive) initial rates provided at last, maybe they read this bb! Or maybe they released initial rates as they had to tell us about Blythe which at least should be back online in days. The important thing is that the initial rates look good.

[jeanesy] 29/3/2022 07:58

it says the blythe well has been temporary shut so that might explain the zero. What part of the update will the market focus on i wonder ?

[officerdigby] 29/3/2022 07:54

8000kbopd net boys.and girls phew!.Those figures in the internet were wrong.However, I. Noticed yesterday they went to zero.so.might have been a unit issue.

[edgein] 29/3/2022 07:32

Wow fellas, initial flow rates over over 50mmcfd and 40mmcfd for both fields are about 50% higher than I anticipated them to be. Looks like no choking back at all over the past week. So approx 7,500boepd net to IOG, superb. Also looks like Southwark operations are coming along as per guidance for mid April. Puts IOG in a very strong position over the next few months.

Regards,
Ed.

[itsriskythat] 29/3/2022 07:30

All figures are definitely gross. Thanks.

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 07:26

Based on that initial rates do look positive irt I agree, although some mention of gross and net to IOG would clarify things, presumably all figures are gross. Thanks for posting the finncap info.

[itsriskythat] 29/3/2022 07:22

finnCap: "IOG is expecting to provide an initial view on flow rates on Blythe and Elgood once stable production has been established from both fields. No guidance has been provided, but a view should normally be sufficient. This is clearly a key datapoint for our forecasts and the market. We assume 2022 gross annual average gas production for Blythe and Elgood of 30 mmcfd and 20 mmcfd, respectively. As a reminder, the Blythe well tested at a maximum rate of 45.5 mmcfd and Elgood at 57.8 mmcfd, although the later was surface constrained."

[bountyhunter] 29/3/2022 07:21

Only 50% to IOG though as they appear to be gross figures?
April for Southwark restart.

[itsriskythat] 29/3/2022 07:21

House broker finnCap modelled the annual average rates for Blythe and Elwood as 30,000 and 20,00o respectively. Comparing the current performances of 40,000 and 50,000 respectively, these rates will blow the models out the water. Note Elwood in particular has a sustained rate in excess of 50,000.

[affc21] 29/3/2022 07:05

RNSAt first glance, flow rates look good to me, but will be interesting on the comments from the more experienced posters here.