Iog Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 28/3/2022 17:56

Unspectacular performance here in terms of share price. Mind you, who would believe oil and gas prices were at record highs looking at the companies share prices.

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2022 16:11

Three days to go before March/April re Southwark turns into April. Maybe they will surprise on that but I think that would be a first!

[marvelman] 28/3/2022 15:56

We do seem to get to know more about what's going on from the clever researchers on this BB than from the company itself

[marvelman] 28/3/2022 15:53

You've never been one for mincing your words DH...:-))

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2022 15:24

Exactly!
Good work irt, with shareholders having been left to dig around for production rates prior to "mid-year" we will need to keep an eye on that.

[dunderheed] 28/3/2022 14:14

It seems the market is "liking" the iog impact of non sharing of production data.

[affc21] 28/3/2022 10:31

Via L.S.E. forumPoster DrillsparkSouthwark,Bravenes sub sea rock installation vessel at Southwark now.......

[affc21] 28/3/2022 10:27

Itriskythat,That has just saved me a whole lot of extra time and effort in trying to find such information on the internet. Not that I have not been looking anyway, having spent much of Sunday morning searching to no avail...Thank you good sir

[itsriskythat] 28/3/2022 09:03

I want to share the URL where IOG production data will be published by the North Sea Transition Authority:



Scroll down page to PPRS Spatial dashboard
Select 'View Full Screen'
In the top menu select 'Filter by company, field, unit type'
Type in the company name, eg. SERICA ENERGY
Switch the slider on the right of the menu to ON, and the slider turns green.

The data is shown at the bottom for each field operated by SERICA, eg. Rhum etc.
Last data input by the operator is for January 2022.

The production data for IOG in February 2022 will be input to this database soon, along with data from all the operators.

[bountyhunter] 25/3/2022 18:11

All good if those are the flow rates achieved at Bacton. As they are apparently not telling us initial or stable rates for some time I fear the price may drift at least until we get some positive news. That could be just around the corner re Southwark - but bearing in mind as they said Mar/Apr for that it will probably be April!

[itsriskythat] 25/3/2022 18:06

Previous post has an image that is not visible on ADVFN app only desktop. Edit: Image now on ADVFN app too.

[itsriskythat] 25/3/2022 17:53

I've taken the finnCap research on IOG dated 18th March 2022 after FY2021 results.

"We assume 2022 average gross production for Blythe and Elgood of 30 mmcfd and 20 mmcfd, respectively. As a reminder, the Blythe well tested at a maximum rate of 45.5 mmcfd and Elgood at 57.8 mmcfd, although the later was surface constrained."

Figure 4:

Production 31,700 MMcfe/d
Revenue £221.3m
UK NBP gas price 200p

[itsriskythat] 25/3/2022 17:53

I've taken the finnCap research on IOG dated 18th March 2022 after FY2021 results.

"We assume 2022 average gross production for Blythe and Elgood of 30 mmcfd and 20 mmcfd, respectively. As a reminder, the Blythe well tested at a maximum rate of 45.5 mmcfd and Elgood at 57.8 mmcfd, although the later was surface constrained."

Figure 4 provides these values:

Production 31,700 MMcfe/d
Revenue £221.3m
UK NBP gas price 200p

I've just spent some time working with his average production figures to see what he has modelled for the steady state production post the ramp up phase.

Production figures are Blythe gas 19,624cfg/d net, Elwood gas 11,979cfg/d and condensate 303bc/d net to IOG.

Using these values and his ramp up of production the 2021 revenue is £221m based on 200p/therm and $80 for condensate.

Alternatively the revenue is £275m at 250p/therm.

All of the above assumes no hedging in place.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/3/2022 15:41

Don't think there'll be a shortage of demand for gas in Europe this Summer...... they'll be looking to refill storage while they can........ & we have a very cold snap coming to Europe next week...... Spring has its' little surprises......

[pinchers] 24/3/2022 15:32

If the pipeline pressure is too high, Ngrid would intruct Perenco to cut back on gas, along with all the other operators. Perenco would usually then run a spreadsheet to determine how much each operator has to cut back on the gas, depends on their contract, some pay more to get a bigger percentage into the pipeline in that situation.
Usually the bigger operators though, IOG quite small.

Can only hope that IOG allowed ro ramp up, and that NGrid are keeping the line well packed for security of supply in UK, and to feed any excess through the Bacton Interconnector to Europe.

I'm purely guessing here.

Hope this helps. Have to go now.

[officerdigby] 24/3/2022 15:18

Pinchers.thanks.Some we seeing production very low and this would be expected only be ramped up slowly.. to hopefully near to.reported flow rates?In your previous comment you mention NG looking full..surely they can accept all IOG produce otherwise one wonders why the gas price is >>200 a therm? Thanks

[pinchers] 24/3/2022 15:13

Hopefully i can explain.
Metered data will be recieved by Perenco from the offshore installations, this is what is exported from offshore.
When the gas lands at Perenco they will use the metered flow from the gas pipeline, to determine how much of that is exported into the NGrid, not all will be exported, some can be used to pack or unpack the pipeline.
The gas sales will be taken as snapshots into whatever software they use for selling gas every hour, and handed off to NGrid as sales deliveries. This is probably the data we are seeing but the 24hr figure. The gas day runs from 6am, to 6am the following day.
Then the hydrocarbon accountants get involved, validate the data and IOG will be payed for their delivery of gas, depending on their equity ownership.

No guarantees that the figures are correct, but would hope so.

[bountyhunter] 24/3/2022 14:54

Can't see anything for Serica. Maybe their data is logged elsewhere.

[bountyhunter] 24/3/2022 14:47

It does say "Daily Flow" in front of each value but it's still confusing to me without a definitive explanation.

[edgein] 24/3/2022 14:27

Nowhere amongst that data does it say volume, look at the headers. The data in question suggests value rather than volume. It also seems to be giving different values at the same time so don't know how that works exactly. It almost looks like the price per therm but who knows.

Regards,
Ed.

[marvelman] 24/3/2022 13:23

Thanks for the clarification Pinchers