Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/11/2024 09:03

#Marktime1231, 188.68 pence income before end of Sept 2025 for buyers pre XD 28th, a few sellers today at 2500 to be expected, it is a milestone number but buyers will come back in for them.. :o)

[montyhedge] 20/11/2024 09:00

No stopping the tobacco stocks, Trump trade, be in consumer staplesSeems to be coming true.

[marktime1231] 19/11/2024 13:41

Using that word "accelerated" again to describe modest gains. I wonder what the buzzword for the next 5 year plan will be. More of the same? There is clearly scope for ongoing £1B+ pa buybacks or debt reduction, and slowly enhanced dividends, but we will have to wait until a Capital Markets Day next March to hear which direction they want to go. Radical restructuring or capex plans not on the cards, nothing broken to fix.

Very impressed with the financial performance and continuing growth by acquisition of the panEuropean distribution business Logista.

Also pleased to note that gross debt actually reduced, by around £100M, and average interest cost is still only 4.2%, but with upward pressure.

Not impressed that the outlook for NGP is merely to reduce losses. Come on have the ambition to get to scale and turn a profit on its own footing, like other companies are doing or have done already.

Looking at the pension scheme situation to see if there is a hidden nugget. The largest UK scheme in reasonably good shape, but a horrible unfunded scheme in Germany is a drag. No imminent windfall expected.

So there is nothing particularly interesting or exciting in the results or outlook, just dull solid returns on the horizon. And that quite rightly is enough to make IMB look an increasingly attractive long term income play.

[martinmc123] 19/11/2024 11:52

3*
Imperial Brands posted a decent set of FY24 numbers this morning. Revenues were roughly flat at £32,411m (-0.2% mom), but Group adjusted operating profit grew +4.6% to £3,911m, driven by improved profitability in tobacco and NGP and Distribution. Adjusted EPS grew +10.9% with adjusted operating profit growth enhanced by reduced share count, while reported EPS grew +19.1% reflecting increased operating profit, a lower reported tax rate and a reduced share count, which more than offset higher interest costs...

...from WealthOracle

wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/IMB/993

[fozzyb] 19/11/2024 11:51

Like the opium wars in reverse

[montyhedge] 19/11/2024 09:49

Get the profit takers out the way, should then have a push to further year end highs, especially when Bats have they update around 6th Dec, hopefully giving the sector a further year end boost.

[dartboard1] 19/11/2024 09:06

Well, today's pushed IMB into my top holding. Happy for the strategy of divs and buybacks to continue. Although might stop reinvesting the divs just to start taking some out. Boring sometimes is good...NGP growing nicely. What they need is a crack down of the Chinese vapes. If you walk into an off-licence you can see tonnes of illegal ones, so need the gov to rein that in once everyone's hooked so only the legit ones remain ... not sure if this is the case worldwide, but definitely in UK market

[tuftymatt] 19/11/2024 08:03

Fantastic figures and a positive opening too.

Sit back and enjoy the share price growth / high yield on offer here in my opinion.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2024 07:28

We are on track to deliver five-year capital returns of GBP10BN, representing 67% of our market capitalisation..Another 5 years of the same at the strategy review for 2025-2030 will be just fine.. :o)

[huckers] 19/11/2024 07:17

Looks solid, impressive even.

"We look forward to presenting the next phase of our strategy at a Capital Markets Day on 26 March 2025."

So the initial five-year turnaround plan draws to an end and the next phase awaits!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2024 07:14

1st read through looks pretty robust to me too, see how the markets like them at 0800, the NGP growth of +26% is impressive and we know how PM/MO went for them.. :o)

[tornado12] 19/11/2024 07:10

Results look positive with whopping 19,1% increase in EPS and divi +4,5%, covered near x2. Outlook 2025 much the same and next 5 yr strategy under development. I can see a positive impact on share price today GLA

[philanderer] 19/11/2024 00:15

'Imperial Brands announces UK launch of Paramount'


The UK launch of Paramount follows the success of its debut in Germany, where it is currently the fastest-growing cigarette product since hitting the shelves.

Paramount’s introduction reflects the growing demand for value options in the UK, with the value sector expanding by 5% in the past year and now representing 30% of the UK cigarette market.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/11/2024 13:25

#marktime1231, yes we have had the pre close RNS 08.10.2024, so we know the dividends coming and the buyback expectations from it..

As part of our commitment to an ongoing multi-year buyback, we are announcing a further GBP1.25BN buyback which we expect to complete no later than 29.10.2025..

The share price driver is more about the outlook for 2025 and how growth in the Blu/Pulze/Oral side of the business is moving, I would also like to see the debt coming down too, the share price could move 3/4% either way..

See what we get.. :o)

[marktime1231] 18/11/2024 12:19

Can we all calm down, we already had the FY results heads-up on 8 October plus news of buybacks and dividends. The results tomorrow shouldn't change anything, just adding fine detail. The share price will continue to rise in zig zag fashion. Not due a response like the US tobacco giants got.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/11/2024 10:38

2400 pence before results tomorrow
2500 if they are strong
2300 if weaker than expected..?

Sit back and wait.. :o), 4 big dividends coming inside 10 months either way

[putinaire] 18/11/2024 08:56

BATS waiting on IMB. Thing is, if results were not as expected, oddly, BATS will take the heavier hit. However, nice if good for the double holders

[tornado12] 18/11/2024 08:26

Looking forward to the FY results tomorrow. Expecting positive news, together with a optimistic 2025 outlook

[marktime1231] 17/11/2024 21:10

We have also been watching for news of a $600M 8.125% bond due March 2024. What happened to that, can't work things out directly from the website statement, which says a total of $3,050B new bonds were issued in July 2024 at 4.25-5.875%. We will have to wait to read the notes in the full year report on Tuesday, but I suspect gross term debt has swollen and interest costs are on the up. The cost of debt is not really a concern but it would be nice to see debt shrinking.

[putinaire] 17/11/2024 16:52

Question is, what is current structure calling for earnings?

[putinaire] 17/11/2024 16:31

TBF, even a gerbil could have got this one right really

[putinaire] 17/11/2024 16:30

Made it easy buying here really. Once market support was in for it

[putinaire] 17/11/2024 16:29

market wouldnt support the debt payment here the same as buyback. Debt is ok if market sees value in it.



There are a couple of other similar firms globally that went down the debt payment route. Not performing anything like IMB. Once you overlay them, they got it right with buyback i think

[fenners66] 17/11/2024 15:46

Huckers - thanks well spotted .

As I was saying before the buybacks - which some will say have been a success - that the debt that could have been paid off instead - which would avoid enough interest to pay out more in dividends per share than the small increase on the less shares in issue we have now. EPS could have been more and it would look more like a growth company (albeit from lower costs).

One of the costs of having higher debt is that ALL the debt costs more - try getting a mortgage rate quote for a 60% Loan to equity vs. a 95% LTE for example.

So no buyback could have been - debt repaid - zero interest
Less debt renewals - lower renewal fees and write offs when debt not taken to term.
Lower interest cost on debt when it is renewed.

As for the share price I think it would have made as much or more progress repaying debt instead of BB.