Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[cassini] 22/5/2024 19:20

That is a known strategy - pound cost averaging! ;0)

[petersinthemarket] 22/5/2024 16:30

Cassini - I don't usually dither (much), so I'm going to present this as if it was a sensible and well thought out strategy! I am hedging my bets here. I have bt half and I will buy the other half at some lower price after xdiv day. Thanks for comments guys.
pete

[cassini] 22/5/2024 13:13

I personally wouldn't buy directly before ex-dividend day as although one then get the divi, one has to wait ~six weeks to get that money back in one's account.

Better maybe to buy on or after ex-div day and not get that money tied up like that IMO.

That said, as has been noted, day to day price movements could end up going either in your favour or against you whichever strategy you pursue.

[louis brandeis] 22/5/2024 12:48

I would not concern yourself with the dividend date whatsoever. On ex-dividend date the intrinsic value of the investment falls by the dividend amount but the share price may do anything on that particular day depending on market sentiment. Aim to buy at value (for many that means low PE, lower than intrinsic value etc..) and don't concern yourself with the dividend date.

[petersinthemarket] 22/5/2024 12:10

Tks Cassini - I'm trying to decide whether to add today or after xdiv. pete

[cassini] 22/5/2024 11:39

petersinthemarket,

Yes, all things being equal the price should fall by the divi amount on ex-div day.

[petersinthemarket] 22/5/2024 10:50

As a newbie in IMB; is the share price expected to fall by the div value after xdiv?

[louis brandeis] 21/5/2024 11:46

As far as other investments - someone asked - I do like long term investments with meaningful and sustainable buybacks and buyback policy. Next is great but you never seem to get it for a value price. Berkeley is another, again, always a little pricey. Look at the share charts though - that shows you what buybacks do. Dowlais has just started this journey and has a 5% market cap buyback alongside a circa 5% dividend. All not stellar but decent IMO.

To add: Melrose is another that looks sustainable on the back of aircraft builds, servicing and very healthy forward cash flows.

[louis brandeis] 21/5/2024 11:40

I'd rather the price didn't get carried away with itself. Buybacks mean more to long-term investors when the price is low. If the price goes higher and higher the buybacks become less and less meaningful. In other words for long-term income investors it is in our own interests for the price to be healthy but not high. Sufficient enough profit margin in your investment and take the income. As far as price increases on packets don't forget the sales price increase to IMB is not fully reflected in the retail price due to tax. 8% or whatever might seem high and perhaps isn't sustainable but that isn't 8% on the retail price.

[marktime1231] 20/5/2024 12:37

Jefferies obviously prefer BAT or something else to IMB. Doesn't like the declining volumes (which are inevitable and more than priced in) or poor NextGen progress (IMB's strategic decision to restrain capex) and thinks IMB are "over-earning" - if that means they think IMB has been profitting off unsustainable price increases maybe they may have a point. But nevertheless they hike the target price in a failed effort to catch up with recent share price improvement.

This reads like a poor attempt to justify the fact they have called it wrong and are still doing so. Some analysts are so growth-obsessed they don't know how to appreciate value in a mature market.

A pity though that someone has introduced a negative commentary, IMB has settled back when £20 (!) looked on the cards.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/5/2024 13:41

#Action, consider BRWM, it is a trust, and does have fees, but pays out quarterly dividends, and has global exposure to pretty much everything mining and minerals..

[action] 18/5/2024 12:19

Thank you. Only mining etf without stamp duty which I know is SPGP mainly gold shares.

[cassini] 18/5/2024 11:10

For physical metals ETFs i.e. not based on derivatives but on holding title to real metal (in theory ;0), I hold PHSP (PHysical Silver in (G.B.) Pounds) and PHGP (PHysical Gold in (G.B.) Pounds), both are Wisdom Tree ETFs.

There are also dollar denominated versions of the same ETFs i.e. PHAG and PHAU.

Not sure about mining ETFs as I don't hold any.

[action] 18/5/2024 09:21

Can you share ETF to invest in commodity space as it do not attract stamp duty and you are sharing your money with world top mining companies. Appreciate your feedback.

[cassini] 17/5/2024 17:59

I'm in tobaccos, oil/gas, mining/commodities, financials/insurers in the main. Old tech.

The energy sector has been beaten down this year but will come back. Some high dividends available right now.

Gold/silver/copper are on a roll, I'm invested via miners or metals ETFs.

The divis in the insurance sector (life assurance/pensions more than general business like car insurance) are high reflecting low share prices/valuations. MNG and PHNX have about 10% dividends, LGEN's is above 8%.

[fat_divvy] 17/5/2024 16:21

Thanks for your thoughts. Do you guys also have most of your portfolio in tobacco or do you have other similar investments? I really like the idea of the tobacco sector, was thinking of other sectors with similarities but couldn't really think of any. Maybe but coals/oil, but not really.

[huckers] 17/5/2024 13:55

My crude look placed one a few percent off the other. In other words, on one crude measure (treating them as equivalent businesses and treating debt and equity at parity), they are priced more or less in line with one another.

[marktime1231] 17/5/2024 13:20

You have to decide if the direction of travel will continue with IMB nosing ahead, or BAT will catch up and close the gap. Backing both is an easy hedge since each stock is rewarding, and valid if you think BAT will pull something extra out of the bag or there is some special risk which would trip IMB up.

Happy to stay with all my bet on IMB. The compound effect of all the buybacks should mean we will soon get the meaningful progress for investors which Bomhard has been promising. Hopeful for Logista.

What I can't conclude on is which camp would be best to be overweight in if there is a BAT-IMB merger. In theory on neutral terms, unless there is disparity in book value to which Huckers is pointing.

[petersinthemarket] 17/5/2024 12:50

REF 8719
That tech indicator says strong sell even though the MA suggest narrow buy.
What help is that?

[huckers] 17/5/2024 09:40

Agree with all the above (my IMB holding dwarfs my BATS one, so I would say that!).

Furthermore, nothwithstanding all the above, a very crude look at earnings to EV shows that they are both more or less in line (IMB is actually at a slight discount to BATS).

[louis brandeis] 17/5/2024 09:27

Imperial Brands is the more attractive stock ATM. With dividends and buy backs you are getting mid-teen cash flow returns on your investment. BATS doesn't have much room for buybacks that are meaningful after the dividend. Hence why they are selling some stakes in their subsidiaries to appease investors. BATS also has a greater US/Canadian exposure which, in my opinion, harbours much greater political and litigation risk than most of the planet. It also has some large cases against it that haven't yet concluded. Imperial Brands products are value brands rather than premium and this helps in economies that are struggling. I therefore hold both with a greater weighting to IMB.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/5/2024 08:15

In relative terms BATS are at a 20% discount today to IMB over 12 months, you will see this on a 1 year chart comparison overlay, but look back to summer 2022 when BATS were 3500 a share too..

[fat_divvy] 16/5/2024 22:05

How do you compare this one to BATS? I have both, but having a hard time picking my favorite. Which one do you think is the cheapest?

Fat

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/5/2024 19:21

#Monty, having built my IMB position in 2020/2021 and just waited, I recently took advantage of BATS on offer at c2300 from Dec23 - April24 and hit my target holding just in time, too good to miss.. :o)

BATS are well ahead of IMB on the vapour side, and sooner or later I still expect some MnA in the space..

[marktime1231] 15/5/2024 16:15

Missed the boat in 2020 oh well never mind salty