Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 13/1/2024 18:03

Spud@#8469 'Lawrence - You've only just received your dividend? Ye Gods!! spud'

That's nothing. Interactive Brokers still haven't paid me the IMB div a/o time of writing. I've queried three times between 29/12 and to date with zero response. And now I've had to add a formal Complaint as well.

What a shame, they used to be very reliable and I'd be perplexed at reading others' tales of late payments from other brokers...

[tuftymatt] 13/1/2024 15:51

Good post LLB and my thoughts exactly in terms of share price movement over time / sector mergers.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/1/2024 13:25

#Spud, nudging up nicely here, 1900 coming into view, then onto 2000 as the buybacks step up..

Ongoing multi-year share buyback with GBP1.1bn underway for FY24, a 10% increase on FY23 buyback..

We have also delivered a material step-up in shareholder returns during FY23 and FY24, through a combination of dividends and our ongoing share buyback programme, we expect to make cumulative capital returns of GBP4.7BN. This is the equivalent of c30% of Imperial’s market value as at 30 September 2023.

Consider the share price Jan 2023 of over 2050 and we have had a FY of buybacks since so we could see 2200 PDQ with the 2024 BB only just beginning..

BATS share price -25% over 2023 as they now gear up for their transformation into 50% smokeless by 2035..

Sooner or later as the IMB MCAP shrinks (USD21BN) relative to BATS we could see some MnA activity with their MCAP @ USD66BN so building a position there too makes sense to me as well as spring mountain capital (10%), if BATS also start a BB then happy days for shareholders both sides... :o)

[spud] 12/1/2024 11:26

Lawrence - You've only just received your dividend? Ye Gods!!

spud

[dmore2] 12/1/2024 10:32

hxxps://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/sector-screener-two-stocks-attractive-long-term-returns-ii530399

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/12/2023 20:16

Dividend received, a bit too late to redirect it today but I will be adding some more free BATS after the break for the 10% yield.. :o)

[saltaire111] 29/12/2023 11:05

Nice divi banked this morning. Nice way to end the year.

[a13878713] 29/12/2023 05:06

Dividend payment today, will be adding on any pullback, added some BATS at £22.82 for the first time 10% divi, looking to add more if it falls further.

[spud] 19/12/2023 08:58

Strange comment demore!spud

[dmore2] 19/12/2023 08:30

BATS goes ex div thursday, think id be worried holding.

[pensioeninvestor] 15/12/2023 10:59

As my dear friend would say it “very good very well”. On a more serious note, do these numbers include vaping?

[spud] 14/12/2023 08:54

Smoking decline stalls since Covid as more young people take up the habit - study


spud

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/12/2023 09:23

#Spud, same logic, economies of scale, joint team structures, save 1,000s of headcount and salaries merging of cost centres, have combustibles and NGP all covered off with market share assured (almost)..

Sooner or later as IMB share buybacks reduce issuance / MCAP some approaches may come along, our man with 10% in the Cayman islands clearly thinks so too..

From an investors perspective, holding both shares looks a sensible strategy..

[spud] 13/12/2023 09:15

I personally think that consolidation in the tobacco industry is inevitable. It's the only way by pooling resources (intellectual and fiscal) that these companies can prosper and survive a shrinking market.spud

[saltaire111] 13/12/2023 09:08

@dmore2 - that’s a far too logical (and sensible), it implies that the competition authorities have a basic grasp of economics! They don’t and they’re clueless. Which is why they make such a mess of significant merger proposals. Just look at the mess they made with Activation Blizzard FFS!

I actually hope they (BATS/IMB) continue trading a separate companies as it is useful to shift money between the two to take advantage of the relative pricing for the two companies over time. It’s a bit like an arbitrage trading strategy with limited downside.

[dmore2] 13/12/2023 01:48

when volumes are falling competition is forgotten

[philanderer] 13/12/2023 00:17

'Billionaire Dart Raises British American Tobacco Stake to 10%'

Cayman Islands-based investor disclosed a stake in 2020
He also owns about 6% of rival tobacco firm Imperial Brands

[saltaire111] 12/12/2023 23:22

I can see the logic in BATS buying IMB. But the competition folks would surely be all over it?

[marktime1231] 11/12/2023 19:43

If IMB is winning the tobacco battle in a declining market and BAT is winning next-gen then sector consolidation is an obvious endgame. But next-gen doesn't yet deliver the profitable cashflow, and BAT doesn't have its balance sheet under such good control as IMB, meaning it can't promise the same shareholder returns. IMB is the better short-term prospect.

Let's get a clearer picture of how next-gen is going to be regulated and taxed first before considering any marriage proposal. Incidentally which doesn't deliver the value-added prayer of a US listing, so something else would have to happen ... starting typically with US-based PE megabucks shaking things up. Ken Dart can't do it on his own but he is strongly of the view that someone else will.

Did anyone spot, oh the irony, that the incoming Liberal right-wingers in NZ are reconsidering Jacinda's plan to criminalise all tobacco smoking in view of the tax receipts which would be lost, just as our not-so-Liberal not-so-right-winger is pushing the idea forward. Oh dear. I suppose if you want to be remembered for something ...

[fenners66] 11/12/2023 18:39

If you look back over this thread I have suggested before that IMB needs to beef up its balance sheet and war chest ahead of the inevitable sector consolidation.
Its going to happen sometime - just a question of when.

[dmore2] 11/12/2023 17:47

ken dart has just raised his stake in BATS by 1%.
Rumor has it he's wants merger/takeover with IMB and move from london.
Price set-up could suggest its on the cards.
IMB ceo would do well at BATS in my view.

[tuftymatt] 09/12/2023 15:07

I agree with both Spud and LLB in that 2000 isn't far off.

BATS impacted things yesterday but that creates opportunity for many to top up / come in on the pullback.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/12/2023 07:44

The ongoing share buybacks 2023/2024 have to increase the value of the remaining issuance, the dividend increases 4/5% a year, GBP20 should come into view soon.. :o)