Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[1viky] 12/2/2022 20:44

Looks like Russia stalemateand uncertainty will continue with remote possibility of invasion. Good for IMB

[spud] 11/2/2022 20:39

Like oil, what a tremendous hedge against a Putin transgression. spud

[marktime1231] 11/2/2022 19:37

Thanks, that makes all the difference

[tomleafs] 11/2/2022 16:56

I think you're correct in essence that BATs has higher margins, but not to the stark degree you outlined below. On BATS income statement from todays report you can see revenue had a little 1 next to it and if you look at the bottom of the page they state the figure is net of duty etc of some £38.5 billion, you'd need to add this back on for BATS in order to compare with IMB. Very pleased the Americans woke up and gave these two companies a kick today ;-) ATB

[marktime1231] 11/2/2022 16:41

ps notwithstanding my duff maths I note that both BAT and IMB got an extra boost this afternoon when US markets opened, where risk stocks are having another tough day, not stragic volumes but enough to push IMB comfortably above £18 and I would say at this rate £18.50 by ex-div is quite a possibility. Super smashing marvellous.

[marktime1231] 11/2/2022 16:28

tom --- you are probably answering your own question, I stupidly did a quick sum based on the facevalue of reported figures in the last couple of years (profit before tax/revenue) on my platform. So not net then. For examples:

For 2020 BAT stated as 8672/25776
For 2021 IMB stated as 3238/32971

Today's announcements from BAT give a number of different operating profits depending on which basis you pick. Somewhere around £8-9-10-11B on revenues of around £26-27B?

If the two companies report headline figures on a very different basis as you say, or I have made a naive mistake not for the first time, I would be grateful for your correction and improvement. It would actually be good to know how the two compare if there is a comparable basis both gross and net.

My underlying assumption is that BAT operates on a much much higher margin, its mkt cap £75B is approx 4 x IMB mkt cap £17B but with closer revenues £25B vs £32B?

[action] 11/2/2022 14:32

Now I am less than 50% down from 3407p. LOL.

[push n run] 11/2/2022 14:29

The board should stay focussed on debt reduction. With central banks starting to tighten monetary policy they don't want to be desperate to refinance while credit markets are difficult. The lower debt is, the more flexibility they have.

[redbaron10] 11/2/2022 13:23

I'm no fan of buybacks.CEOs and boards like buybacks to keep inflated share prices as their remuneration and bonus packages are usually linked to share price performance.As an investor i prefer real returns to me in the form of dividends.Companies paying off excess debt and R&D capital expenditure i have no problem with.

[tomleafs] 11/2/2022 13:15

Marktime care to share your workings for the net margin figures? I think you may have taken the headline figure of BATS revenue which excludes duty, excise and other taxes and compared it with IMBs headline revenue which includes it. When I do like-for-like comparisons I get similar margin figures of between 9-11% for both companies.

[markgahagan] 11/2/2022 13:04

I prefer a buyback to a divi as the latter is taxable

[marktime1231] 11/2/2022 12:53

I love buybacks (edit - in the right circumstances), should never waste surplus cash on a flash special it rewards speculative traders not long term investors.

[ccraig69] 11/2/2022 12:44

I hate buybacks just give special divi to shareholders.

[marktime1231] 11/2/2022 12:07

BAT putting surplus proceeds into a buyback, something we expect from IMB in due course, will please the institutional investors if not Spud. £2B through Dec 2022 is about 2-2.5% of market cap. IMB could spend less than half that amount of cash and return twice as much to investors pro-rata, underpinning much better dividend growth than BATs measly +1%. Does IMB have the surplus cash flow available yet, well maybe not through the big dividend cycle we are enjoying right now, but by the time of the Interims in May I would say yes. That sort of announcement increasingly likely.

In comparison I would say IMBs recent results were better. BAT has declining revenues from conventional products whereas IMB was able to report revenue growth through pricing up. BATs slow growth in next gen is still making losses. Nevertheless BATs net margin 30-35% towers over IMBs 7-10%. BAT saying benefit from pricing up will be weighted to second quarter means it is not enjoying much benefit at the moment.

I wonder if Bomhard's plan of making the most from IMBs core markets, trying to get more margin from weaker brands, is a short term winner albeit in the longer term BAT will be a winner from the next gen market.

Very rewarding to have IMB nudge through £18 this morning, no doubt triggering lots of stop-gains, now we need to watch to see if it will hit resistance or step on up.

[redbaron10] 11/2/2022 11:34

17/5/2022 in the calendar

[push n run] 11/2/2022 10:23

When does IMB next report?

[redbaron10] 11/2/2022 09:49

PM good Q4 results yesterday,BATS following through with good results today.Come on IMB do the business too.

[spud] 11/2/2022 08:22

BATS pretax profit for last year was GBP9.16 billion, compared with GBP8.67 billion in 2020, the company said.Adjusted profit from operations was GBP10.23 billion, compared with GBP11.37 billion the year before, BAT said.Revenue for the full year fell to GBP25.68 billion from GBP25.78 billion in the year prior. Revenue consensus for the year was GBP25.63 billion, taken from FactSet and based on 15 analysts' forecasts.BAT said it expects constant-currency revenue growth of 3% to 5% this year. It said it expects high-single-digit adjusted earnings-per-share growth in 2022, and that growth will be weighted toward the second half.The company added that it expects global tobacco industry volume to be down around 2.5% in 2022.spud

[leadersoffice] 11/2/2022 08:12

When is next payment ?

[dmore2] 11/2/2022 08:06

good results at BATS

[dmore2] 10/2/2022 22:18

get ready for double bubble

[saltaire111] 10/2/2022 21:58

Loving the positive price action. I’m here for income, but loving the growth!

Salty.

[spud] 10/2/2022 11:26

Global Tobacco’s Robust Cashflows Improve Rating Headroom



spud

[redbaron10] 09/2/2022 16:08

You're right fenners66.....my profound apologies.I heard it reported on one of the business channels and relayed the statistic verbatim without verifying it.I went on the future inflation calculator and put in the sum £100.After 5 years at constant 7% inflation the sum in today's terms would be £71.30.I'm sorry for the misrepresentation,it was not my intention.