Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 14/1/2022 15:53

Fags, banks and oil - It's where it's at currently.

spud

[philanderer] 14/1/2022 15:46

1700p - first time since feb 2020 :-)

[lonrho] 14/1/2022 15:40

I thought they held Philip Morris. It's still in their top ten holdings as of today.

[rumpy pumpy] 14/1/2022 15:04

Fundsmith don't invest in tobacco now. Policy.

[acsatix] 14/1/2022 12:25

Buyback will not start before 2023 as in the results they said 2022 is for stabilisation. So let’s not assume anything before 2023

[dmore2] 13/1/2022 15:56

kenneth dart must still be spending his massive divi

[encarter] 13/1/2022 15:46

Still paying over 8% divi.

[rjmb] 13/1/2022 11:30

*Terry Smith

[medieval blacksmith] 13/1/2022 11:23

Not long now before buy backs kick in. :)

[rjmb] 13/1/2022 11:05

I wonder if investor Adam Smith is back in with Imperial since new management came in? He was unimpressed with previous management's plans and I believed he pulled out?

[muscletrade] 13/1/2022 10:18

Just a quick observation re the comments on BATS dividend going back 21 years. They have not cut their dividend in this period.
compound div growth rate
15 years 9.42`%
10 years 5.48%
5 years 4.94%

There was an anomaly in 2017 when they moved to quarterly divs but the growth continues albeit has slowed down last 5 years or so.

[encarter] 13/1/2022 09:54

I sold up as I was expecting another lockdown and a dip. Back in now though. We have a large buyer imho.

[spud] 13/1/2022 09:19

Yes. I'm well overweight here but happy to hold and receive the growing juicy dividend.If the management get this right, there's going to be an awful lot of ESG IIs kicking themselves (despite this having more ESG credentials than most other listed companies).spud

[saltaire111] 13/1/2022 08:59

IMB is the perfect stock to hold in an inflationary environment.

Salty

[creditcrunchies] 12/1/2022 00:02

Depends on who you think is telling the truth it might be declining in the west but globally consumption is gong higher

Tobacco Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis

Have global tobacco sales passed their peak?

Worldwide tobacco market value 2012-2025

[marktime1231] 11/1/2022 17:01

I stand well corrected, my mistake not spotting BAT changed from 2 to 4 dividend instalments in 2017. The collapse in BATs share price 2017-18 was not caused by rebasing their dividend.

[tomleafs] 11/1/2022 15:40

Spud, be careful where you source your data from as there's an error there caused by BATS changeover to quarterly dividend payments in 2017/18. They've been steadily increasing the total annual dividend for decades.

[spud] 11/1/2022 15:13

Aside from a dip in 2017, the yield has been pretty progressive.



spud

[tomleafs] 11/1/2022 14:42

Are you sure BATS have "deeply" cut their dividend in the past 5 years? Looks like a healthy upward trend to me. In my view, we've had a secular shift out of tobacco/value and into other areas of the market over the last 5 years. With inflation and interest rates starting to increase I believe we could be in for another shift in market sentiment, potentially to our benefit this time around. ATB

[redbaron10] 11/1/2022 12:56

marktime 1231 that is a good,balanced and fair summary.Your conclusion of there is a case to invest in both or neither,is a reasonable one.Individual investors are looking for different things out of their investments.If those investments, most importantly, don't lose you money, then you are either seeking capital growth,income,or preferably both.Dyor.

[marktime1231] 11/1/2022 12:44

BAT is cheap but IMB is cheaper on p/e.

IMB has heavy debt but BAT's is colossal. Both are cutting debt fast.

BAT pays 7.5% but IMB pays 8.5%. Both cut dividends deeply in the last 5 years and lost half their share price as a result but both now look sustainable and are reporting "on track".

IMB is attempting to stablise revenues by reinforcing its tobacco brands in its core markets, while BAT is investing more in next gen products. It remains to be seen if and when either strategy will succeed, but all they need to do over the next ten years is keep making profits without blowing it all on vanity projects or cash handouts.

Neither wins in terms of global sales (China companies) or premium brands (PMI/JTI). IMB has about a quarter of BATs market cap and so might be an easier acquisition target.

Both are printing cash and represent an inflation safe haven as punters rotate out of growth into defensive value.

IMB got a boost during covid lockdown I think because restrictions cut out cross-border smuggling and the trade in fake cigarettes, punters had to buy more of the real thing locally. BAT may also have benefitted. That boost seems to have outweighed the decline in duty free trade.

Both sell death in a declining market with known and as yet unknown regulatory threats. Their markets will probably be much smaller and look very different in 10 or 20 years time.

There is a case to invest in both or neither, they are more similar than different.

[encarter] 11/1/2022 12:19

Great to see.buyer in the wings imho

[dmore2] 11/1/2022 12:02

BATS 45B£ debt PE 11
IMB 9B£ debt PE 5.5
Im betting IMB has buybacks before them

[spud] 11/1/2022 11:46

Peter Merkovic knocking IMB (he is Long BTI)



Imperial Brands: Least Impressive Out Of Big Tobacco
Jan. 10, 2022 2:41 PM ETImperial Brands PLC (IMBBF), IMBBYBTAFF, BTI, PM17 Comments8

Imperial Brands is a dividend powerhouse offering an 8.5% dividend yield and seems to be trading at very attractive valuations.

However, the company's future is plagued by the lack of top-of-the-line brands and the late entry into the new categories market.

In the face of these issues, it is becoming increasingly difficult to rate this British-based tobacco giant a buy.

spud