Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[stanman] 19/2/2018 22:59

Thank you Bermudashorts. That is a very useful post summarising the current scene.

[ny boy] 19/2/2018 22:44

Dontshoutatonce

You should email IMM about this and express your concerns or ask them about it at The investor evening next Monday, I am sure they can comment further

[ny boy] 19/2/2018 22:21

Most of the rise/s will come on a good phase 3 reading results day and the days that follow, as the subsequent FDA approval is fast track anyway and likely to be a formality.

[tjbird] 19/2/2018 21:30

Sorry dont speak french mignog

I speak money

Five years ago, in the month when Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69. HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That means the value put on 100pc was US$7.2 billion So if Lup is better its worth more GSK wil buy it before it eats their lunch, US$7.2bn is £5.2bn so maths £5.2bn = £33.80 target price Not enough for me to retire on, but gets me a nice villa in Tuscany and change which buys me a porshe




Jack

[che7win] 19/2/2018 21:28

Isn't the rise on a positive phase 3 result going to be highly exaggerated in a small pharma company with this being their most advanced drug?£170m market cap becomes exponentially work more. Would open at £3 which is £500m and move up from there IMHO.The board will be well rewarded on a good result and deservedly so.Anyone signing up for licensing will give that figure alone.

[micnoc2015] 19/2/2018 21:27

I see that on the 13/02/2018 Neovacs a French company released positive news on their phase 2b trial for a Lupus drug. “ Neovacs announces that it has received the positive findings of the independent committee (iDSMB), the latest review of the iDSMB data before the final results of the Phase IIb clinical study with IFNalpha Kinoid in lupus.
The iDSMB reviewed data from 185 patients enrolled in approximately 20 countries, who received the full administration of IFNalpha Kinoide vaccine or placebo at the dosage level defined in the study protocol.
Following the review of safety and safety data in the study, the iDSMB recommended that Neovacs continue the study without any modification of the protocol. The results of the study are expected to be released in June 2018.” The text was French translated using google.

[tjbird] 19/2/2018 21:24

Long and strong. The plan intact to give my life the riviera touch with the thousands of pounds to make in the next 21 days

[che7win] 19/2/2018 21:20

Melf, You make a good point, placebo effect should be minimised along with the 12 month study reducing placebo effect.

[tjbird] 19/2/2018 21:12

Five years ago, in the month when Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69. HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That means the value put on 100pc was US$7.2 billion So if Lup is better its worth more GSK wil buy it before it eats their lunch, US$7.2bn is £5.2bn so maths £5.2bn = £33.80 target price Not enough for me to retire on, but gets me a nice villa in Tuscany and change which buys me a porshe




Jack

[opodio] 19/2/2018 21:06

davidh2133

new poster registered today

[melf] 19/2/2018 20:58

davidYou may be aware that the patients from the moderate to severe group were the ones selected for Phase 3 here. Therefore I suggest this reduces the chances of the placebo showing unexpected positive results imo.

[kensingtoncourt] 19/2/2018 20:57

tt - I agree and I think a takeover would be the best option.

[che7win] 19/2/2018 20:54

Thanks divinessence.Wonder if they would announce anything beforehand, such as the database being locked?

[top tips] 19/2/2018 20:43

metis20,
That broker note did not seem to be aware of the real value here. All they basically seem to have done was look at the terms of IMM's original (and subsequently superceded) Lupuzor deal with Cephalon in 2009 (£45m upfront + £500m milestone payments to IMM) and copy an approximate milestone figure for 2018 onwards ($500m), without adjusting upwards for inflation or the fact a current deal would be on Phase 3 readout not just Phase 2a as previously. They also took no account of the new patent, the value of the other 9+ indications the P140 platform could treat, or the rest of the pipeline (particularly Nucant and Urelix, both of which are potential blockbusters). Fact is Lupuzor and P140 are worth a lot more today and big pharmas now have a lot more money to do deals or takeovers. We also now have £10m cash in the bank to help strengthen out position in negotiations.

Last year VA verbally suggested $7billion as a minimum Lupuzor buyout price. I think at least $10 billion if the Phase 3 results are as I expect. I also expect good results to produce a good price rise very quickly rather than waiting for FDA approval, because FDA approval will just be a formality with good efficacy, the Fast Track status, unmet need, good safety and low pricing; and the liklihood of a quick takeover will move to the fore and help support the price.

[dontshoutatonce] 19/2/2018 20:10

Thanks njb.

[metis20] 19/2/2018 20:10

d2133 - no need to state the blindingly obvious!

[davidh2133] 19/2/2018 20:09

No I'm not a de-ramper (I'm not topping up again - I'm carrying enough risk already) nor offering altruistic advice - just telling a story about previous wishful thinking and disappointments - and stating the blindingly obvious that with all the speculation and positive sentiment around nothing is certain until the data is fully analysed (which it should be by now) and we have the results - I may go to the investor event next Monday to watch the presenters body language when asked pointed questions....

[spawny100] 19/2/2018 19:56

davidh - another humble new avatar who holds a reasonable number of shares (only derampers seem to post their supposed holdings for some reason), another approach to subtly deramp whilst appearing to be offering altrustic advice. Do you work at the desk next to njb? It's becoming increasingly easy to spot...

[metis20] 19/2/2018 19:48

Mr.T - your post 14607 - not helpful, as unaccompanied by annual profit potential.

finnCap initiated 12th Dec 2017 when the share price was around 150p



"Unusual upside potential from binary readout leads us to initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and 237p price target (increasing 87% on +ve Phase III, which excludes the value of potential upfront (c.50p) and milestone payments that could amount to c£500m or 386p per share)."

[davidh2133] 19/2/2018 19:44

And Circassia shares fell 64% on the day of this announcement

[davidh2133] 19/2/2018 19:42

Thanks for your replies. I'm just a humble PI who bought the blockbuster potential and took what I see as a binary punt - first in at 27p, doubled my holding at considerably higher than today's price - 37k units in total. I consider it binary because I've had my hopes dashed before by Circassia who thought they had a blockbuster cat allergy drug that bombed in Phase3 because of unexpectedly positive placebo results. I hope we don't get an announcement like this.....

Oxford, UK – 20 June 2016: Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc (“Circassia221; or “the Company”; LSE: CIR) today announces top-line results from its investigational cat allergy immunotherapy phase III study. In the study, both treatment regimens and placebo greatly, and equally, reduced subjects’ combined allergy symptom and rescue medication use score from baseline. As a result of the very marked placebo effect the treatment did not meet the study’s primary endpoint. The treatment was well tolerated with a highly favourable safety profile.

Steve Harris, Circassia’s Chief Executive, said: “We are surprised and disappointed by these results. Such a dramatic placebo effect was not a feature of our earlier phase II studies. However, in this large-scale trial it eliminated the ability to identify a treatment effect despite dramatic improvements in subjects’ allergy symptoms

[hamhamham1] 19/2/2018 19:42

I kinda think that if the share price goes up over the next month then as it hits some investors average buy price then some may decide to lighten their exposure thus bringing the share price down again. So it could flip flop and be range bound maybe?
Time will tell.

[njb67] 19/2/2018 19:38

Dontshout

If I read this correctly...

UPDATED:

- both the 300mg and 1000mg doses hit their primary endpoints (Confidence Interval 90%)
- results were strongest in those patients with a high IFN signature at the start of the study (unclear how many)
- unable to comment on the merit of the outcome measures used - others may be able to add comment regarding their validity
- while there is a doubling (from a low base) of herpes and flu symptoms there was no real difference in severe adverse events compared to placebo.

I believe AZ are due to file in 2019, they also have fast track FDA approval.

As per header on this board, they will be a competitor to Lupuzor.


Posted a while back but repeated for info.

njb67 - 09 Feb 2018 - 18:39:51 - 13117 of 14607 IMMUPHARMA - IN FINAL PHASE 3 LUPUS TRIAL TARGETING BLOCKBUSTER ($1bn+) REVENUES - IMM
Arc 13078

Lots of companies are active in this space, but agree with Long, Lup is ploughing a different furrow. Worth noting that AZ expect to file anifrolumab in 2019 in the US, Europe and Japan, they also have fast track FDA status.

You may find these useful references, the latter is from late 2016, so would need to be updated.

hxxp://lupuscorner.com/
hxxp://lupuscorner.com/new-lupus-drugs-in-development/


Worth also looking at who is presenting new data at the upcoming Lupus 2018 meeting, there is a dedicated session on Friday afternoon. Also who is sponsoring the meeting - GSK, AZ, BMS, Celegene, Roche, UCB etc. - so lots of big pharma interest in this area.

hxxp://www.lupus2018.com/