Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 19/2/2018 19:33

Great link mr T. If you also take the gains that most had in the month leading into results (ie for IMM now) then the returns look pretty good. The price following a positive update is also dependent on the market size potential, which by any measure in SLE and other autoimmune diseases is blockbuster territory.

[mr. t] 19/2/2018 19:16

Regarding IMM stock price on successful phase 3 results day, there is research of how other stocks performed on the day of announcing successful phase 3 results:



DCTH - 2.36% increase on April 20th 2010
AMRN - 64.79% increase on November 29th 2010
CORT - 6.92% decrease on December 22nd 2010
ARIA - 34.10% increase on January 18th 2010
CHTP - 27.95% increase on December 20th 2010
REGN - 19.70% increase on November 22nd 2010
SGEN - 17.60% increase on September 27th 2010
DNDN - 26.65% increase on April 29th 2010

Good increases on average, but not stratospheric. Also worth noting that 5 of the 8 shares gave negative returns for 3 months after results day.

I don’t know about the background to the above companies or their products, nor how representative the data is. However it gives me comfort that I could likely buy in to IMM at a good price on results day and soon afterwards unless the results are sensationally positive.

P.s. I have a vested interest. I’m a happy ex-holder who doesn’t have confidence that phase 3 will succeed. But if it does I’ll be pleased to buy in again if the price is right.

[dontshoutatonce] 19/2/2018 19:12

Obviously most of us here are very excited at the moment and I don’t like to rain on a parade, and so hope that I’m just being overly cautious. I’m heavily invested in Lupozor so I’ve spent the last few days reading up on competitors. Among them, the most valid one seems to be Anifrolumab. It’s in Astra Zenica’s wardrobe. Because it’s being investigated in the USA and reading units are not all from the BILAG. I can’t make out how Anifrolumab compares to Lupozor. I think comparisons with Benylista are not as important as the newcomers. Anifrolumab's failing compared with Lupozor seem to be in higher adverse effects. Anifrolumab doesn’t finish Phase 3 trials before us but it finishes some time later this year. I may be shooting wild but it may explain the stalling in the share price Anyone who understands it thoroughly, please tell us what you think of the results below compared to Lupozor.

“The primary end point was met by more patients treated with anifrolumab (34.3% of 99 for 300 mg and 28.8% of 104 for 1,000 mg) than placebo (17.6% of 102) (P = 0.014 for 300 mg and P = 0.063 for 1,000 mg, versus placebo), with greater effect size in patients with a high IFN signature at baseline (13.2% in placebo‐treated patients versus 36.0% [P = 0.004] and 28.2% [P = 0.029]) in patients treated with anifrolumab 300 mg and 1,000 mg, respectively. At week 52, patients treated with anifrolumab achieved greater responses in SRI(4) (40.2% versus 62.6% [P < 0.001] and 53.8% [P = 0.043] with placebo, anifrolumab 300 mg, and anifrolumab 1,000 mg, respectively), BICLA (25.7% versus 53.5% [P < 0.001] and 41.2% [P = 0.018], respectively), modified SRI(6) (28.4% versus 49.5% [P = 0.002] and 44.7% [P = 0.015], respectively), major clinical response (BILAG 2004 C or better in all organ domains from week 24 through week 52) (6.9% versus 19.2% [P = 0.012] and 17.3% [P = 0.025], respectively), and several other global and organ‐specific end points. Herpes zoster was more frequent in the anifrolumab‐treated patients (2.0% with placebo treatment versus 5.1% and 9.5% with anifrolumab 300 mg and 1,000 mg, respectively), as were cases reported as influenza (2.0% versus 6.1% and 7.6%, respectively), in the anifrolumab treatment groups. Incidence of serious adverse events was similar between groups (18.8% versus 16.2% and 17.1%, respectively).

Conclusion
Anifrolumab substantially reduced disease activity compared with placebo across multiple clinical end points in the patients with moderate‐to208;severe SLE.”

What does anyone make of that?
GLA.

[divinessence] 19/2/2018 19:07

well done che7 for all your hard work. The picture does look bright imho, I think we may know more at the meeting, an RNS could come about on the same day prior to the meeting. All speculation at this stage but you never know! Getting quietly excited and hoping for great news ahead. GLA.

[hamhamham1] 19/2/2018 19:00

Best. I really cannot see £10 a share as the cost of buying post good p3 readout?
The only reason I don't overload (ie double up) at this stage is the chance of failure, however small some here believe that is.

[best1467] 19/2/2018 18:55

Good posts Have been lucky enough to lock some profit away but still hold a sizeable holding.I have mulled many times over selling a bigger percentage prior to readout then getting back in at a higher price with plenty of further upside over the following 12/18 months.
But the fact that valuation is so ridiculously low going into results on a very strong efficacy readout to buy say 50000 shares you could be looking at approaching 500 thousand ,on that basis the risk reward of been totally out is the wrong play which ever way it goes in my opinion.

[stanman] 19/2/2018 18:45

Growth,
Later, there may also be results from post-marketing surveillance studies to help push the price ever upwards, hopefully.

These can be required by the FDA:


.... or they may carried out, and reported on, anyway.

[njb67] 19/2/2018 18:41

If this gaps up st 8am on results day it will be due to PI demand. Institutional investors like pharma cos will take their time, due diligence on results, before making any move.

[racey5] 19/2/2018 18:40

Big rise tomorrow.

[che7win] 19/2/2018 18:39

Growth, I agree with you entirely, but for the risk that after phase 3 results, someone will be greedy and want all the pie. Takeover risk between phase 3 and Fda approval.

[racey5] 19/2/2018 18:37

Big rise tomorrow.

[hamhamham1] 19/2/2018 18:23

Growth. Sounds like you have a balanced plan like myself ;)
Well at least there's two us here who think the same.

[growthinvestor2001] 19/2/2018 18:19

Ham - I’m really confused why people think ph3 results are the end , the big payoff if you will. For me it will be just the start of a very exciting and hopefully profitable journey. No one is going to price this much over £5 a share after positive results I don’t think until more news comes out. First there will be FDA then partnerships and licensing deals. Next we will see what the real initial uptake of the drug will be. Then we might see buy out opportunities if the sales are looking good. All of this will take 6-18 months from now and at each milestone the share price should gap higher. So I’m in for the results as I got in late and playing catch-up with the x baggers here already but there is a long road and lots of chances to considerably beat the average market return by simply derisking or holding off now and waiting until after the results. In any other share if I said you’d get a 100% return over 3 years for a stock pick you SHOULD BITE MY HAND OFF for it - I think IMM will easily go up 100% or more from the close price even AFTER positive results day.

[hamhamham1] 19/2/2018 18:05

Growth. I agree but afraid to say it as will get told no. If good results there will be opportunities to buy at some point and make a several times your investment, doubling on FDA approval being the first milestone.

[stanman] 19/2/2018 18:03

Well, having been involved clinically in several multi-centre studies (not SLE) I don't think that the results of that Benlysta study are that bad, especially in a group of patients some of whom are likely to be fairly poorly to start with. Adverse events can mean anything, and "lost to follow-up" is inconclusive.
I say again in no way am I here to defend Benlysta and I hold no GSK shares!
Just staying very purposefully as objective as possible.

Other studies of long-term Benlysta are also not terrible - eg. the multi-centre Italian study I posted details of a few days ago.

Of course, P140 may be so, so different - we all, and all the lupus community, hope that to be the case,.

[growthinvestor2001] 19/2/2018 18:02

I disagree - of course you can buy after results and still gain (with little risk). A lot of people are already up 200 - 300% based on today’s price. If results are good the price will leap again but it will be nowhere near the price if this gets FDA approved and starts flying off the shelves for £1b a year revenues or a buyout offer comes up. No one on day 1 or even day 30 after positive phase 3 can price this without guessing so yes they will miss out on the initial surge like I did getting into this at the 150-160 level rather than the 50p or less entrants but there will still be a lot of money to be made buying shortly after (positive) results

[hamhamham1] 19/2/2018 17:58

Ny boy. If I am locked out from buying on p3 readout day. No problem as I already own some now.

[che7win] 19/2/2018 17:52

Against Lupuzor which we are told is well tolerated and benign, I see this:

[che7win] 19/2/2018 17:50

That's approaching 30% of potentially very serious reasons within the 47% figure.

Not a good result to my untrained eye!

[njb67] 19/2/2018 17:49

Stan
So around a third were due to Benlysta, a third were not and the rest may or may not be would be my read.
GL

Che
LTFU - while serious, you would need to disaggregate those who were lost due to their experience on Ben from for those who were lost for other reasons - moved home, found trial program incompatible with say to say life. Lots of non Ben reasons.

[che7win] 19/2/2018 17:47

Stanman,
by the way "Lost to Follow up" can be pretty serious:

"In the clinical research trial industry, lost to follow-up refers to patients who at one point in time were actively participating in a clinical research trial, but have become lost (either by error in a computer tracking system or by being unreachable) at the point of follow-up in the trial. These patients can become lost for many reasons. Without properly informing the investigator associated with the clinical trial, they may have opted to withdraw from the clinical trial, moved away from the particular study site during the clinical trial, or become ill and unable to communicate or are deceased."

[che7win] 19/2/2018 17:43

I don't know Stanman,
there are some other negative reasons, e.g.:

"Physician Decision: 17

Lost to Follow-up: 12

[ny boy] 19/2/2018 17:34

Forget about buying in on the morning of the results, if positive the sp, will blast higher and you will be locked out and miss about 90% of the rise, before you can buy back in.