Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Immupharma LSE:IMM London Ordinary Share GB0033711010 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00p -1.98% 49.50p 48.50p 50.50p 50.50p 49.75p 50.50p 211,724 16:35:16
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 0.2 -6.3 -4.5 - 65.60

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Immupharma (IMM) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
23/9/2017
09:20
Immupharma Daily Update: Immupharma is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IMM. The last closing price for Immupharma was 50.50p.
Immupharma has a 4 week average price of 45p and a 12 week average price of 44p.
The 1 year high share price is 69p while the 1 year low share price is currently 33p.
There are currently 132,522,985 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 228,356 shares. The market capitalisation of Immupharma is £65,598,877.58.
21/9/2017
18:45
top tips: hamila01, I regard Northlands (Vadim Alexander) research note figure as almost useless as a current share price valuation guide (which he has incidentally revised further upwards to the one you quote). It admits to being "conservative", for example, assuming Lupuzor sells for just $10k pa per patient. It is more akin to a current (2016) minimum level the share price should be last year rather than a target in my opinion. Even in 2012 Cenkos already had a 232p valuation on IMM. IMM's Tim McCarthy is openly quoting $20k pa for IMM's Lupuzor, while Benlysta with all its side effects and lower efficacy sells for $30k pa. I have also heard VA saying this year Lupuzor could sell for as much as $50k pa per patient! VA (4/7/2017) also recently said "HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..." So Northlands VA is now also saying someone could pay at least $7 billion for Lupuzor, which equates to around £40 and not 171p. Now compare IMM with HGSi's share price and market capitalisations. In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on 50% stake in Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017) So a multi billion market capitalisation is achievable.
07/7/2017
14:03
hottingup: "HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..." (Vadim Alexandre, 4/7/2017) "There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug." (Tim McCarthy, 14/3/2017) ImmuPharma: Pharmaceutical development company focusing on novel medicines with 'blockbuster' sales potential for serious unmet needs. Five drug candidates, two platform technologies, approx 70 patents. Lead drug currently nearing end of Phase 3. Directors combined holding: 29,071,308 Ord Shares = 21.94% (31/5/2017) 1) Lupuzor (Forigerimod/P140) (For Lupus & other potential indications): Novel immune modulator. Headline Phase 3 results treating lupus expected Q1 2018. 'SPA' and 'Fast Track' status from US FDA. Potential "blockbuster" with multi billion $ sales. Estimated 5 million global lupus suffers, with approx 1.5 million in the US, Europe and Japan (Source: Lupus Foundation of America). In 2012 GSK acquired HGSi for $3.6 billion (to obtain their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) giving an implied Year 2012 100% valuation for Benlysta of approx $7 billion ($7000,000,000) (£5.39 billion) plus approximately $200m for a couple of other drugs HGSi had. Phase 2b trial data for IMM's Lupuzor suggests it may be more efficaceous than Benlysta and lack its adverse side effects. This gives an implied potential takeover price for IMM's Lupuzor (on satisfactory Phase 3 results) of £5.39 billion, i.e. 3972p (£39.72) (and the old 2012 figures could potentially be revised upwards). (Benlysta current yearly cost approx. $35,000 per patient). "There will be a number of routes to market for Lupuzor which could include: a global licensing deal; ImmuPharma partnering with regional distributors, globally or an outright sale of Lupuzor or the Company. The prime objective of any strategy would be to maximise shareholder return." (IMM, 1/6/2017) 2) Nucant (IPP-204106) (For cancer, age related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic retinopathy): Combination therapy, using injections. Controlled and stoped growth of multiple human cancer cell lines in vitro + in vivo, i.e. breast cancer, prostate cancer, melanoma, glioblastoma, leukaemia, colon cancer and pancreatic cancer. In vivo studies - majority of tumours completely eradicated and survival time increased. Other potential indications include age related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic retinopathy. Two Phase 1 studies completed for safety and tolerability. Phase 1/2a dose-finding adaptive study (with chondroitin sulphate) showed maximum tolerated dose 9 mg/kg (the primary objective of the study). Phase 2a trial on patients who failed other cancer treatments and had metastases - 21% of patients with progressive disease stabilised for more than 6 months; one of the first patients still alive after 20 months. Revised formulation then trialled, shown to be 10x more potent in pre-clinical studies than the original. EU grants received to develop Nucants in combination with cytotoxic drugs for solid support, and in age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy and other ophthalmological indications. Phase 2 efficacy trial ready to start, for pancreatic cancer, involving pre-treatment with Nucant followed by standard dose of cytotoxic drug Gemicitabin. Future potential to target further cancer indications. (Robert Zimmer - Presentation Slide, July 2017 - Listen and see at 18 min 00 sec onwards: hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuybqexHauE) Update 11/2/2015 3) URELIX (peptide platform technology - e.g. Type II diabetes and NASH): Peptide to drug converting technology (PDCT) increases peptide’s plasma half-life and efficacy. May improve the oral absorption of small peptides, e.g. met-enkephalin (the body’s internal analgesic) which would be a major advance. Development risk of drugs based on peptides should be significantly reduced because the peptides are produced by the human body and are therefore less likely to be rejected. Technology allows outstanding properties in terms of duration of action. Next therapeutic areas to be targeted - Type II diabetes (390m sufferers) and NASH (Non-Alcoholic-Steato-Hepatitis) - both multi-billion $ markets. (Global Data recently valued potential in NASH at $25 billion in 2016, with double-digit increase per year). 4) IPP-102199 (For severe pain relief): Based on met-enkephalin, the body's internal peptide analgesic. Non-addictive replacement for morphine and other opioids. Currently in pre-clinical development. As met-enkaphalin occurs naturally in the body, IPP-102199 could have a lower failure risk. 5) IPP-203101 (For MRSA and other infections): Novel antibiotic that is not expected to create bacterial resistance. Expected to be intravenous once a day or once a week. US FDA may grant fast track status. 6) IPP-201007 (For inflamatory disorders): New molecule in preclinical development. Personal comment by thread creator: a) IMM's lead drug Lupuzor (treating Lupus) is in Phase 3 trials, with headline results expected March 2018. Granted a 'SPA' and 'Fast Track' status by the US FDA. b) Lupuzor is said by IMM and analysts to be a potential 'blockbuster', with sales estimates just for treating Lupus ranging from $1 billion pa to $4 billion+ pa. c) Lupuzor may potentially treat other indications (some with potential for Orphan Drug status) including: - Rheumatoid Arthritis / Juvenile Arthritis (Market size $16bn) - Mixed Connective Tissue Disease - Sjogren's Syndrome (Market size $0.5 bn) - Multiple Sclerosis (Market size $14 bn) - Insulin Dependent Diabetes (Market size $2 2bn) - Crohn's Disease (Market size $3.5 bn) - Bullous Pemphigoid (Target market size $1.6bn) - Fibromyalgia, Muscular Dystrophy, Parkinson's, Asthma and Alzheimer’s. (An analyst note states they, "understand that a majority of Phase IIb patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score...)". d) The Lupus market is currently served by GSK's Benlysta, which is not particularly efficacious, has side effects and costs approx. $35,000 per patient per year. e) IMM's published trial data for Lupuzor is said to indicate it may be more efficacious than Benlysta, lack its side effects and be cheaper. Lupuzor could thus potentially replace Benlysta and widen the market. f) Lupuzor revenues could be huge. Treating 50,000 patients for 1 year at US $20,000 each (a figure suggested by IMM's Chairman, Tim McCarthy) generates $1 billion revenue (and gross margins are said to be 95%). Treating 50,000 patients for 1 year at US $30,000 each generates $1.5 billion revenue. One analyst has suggested IMM could charge even more - up to $50,000 pa. g) In 2012 GSK took over HGSi for $3.6 billion (to obtain their 50% stake in Benlysta) giving an implied Year 2012 100% valuation for Benlysta of approx $7 billion ($7000,000,000) (plus approx $200m for two other drugs HGSi had). h) $7 billion = £5.39 billion ($1 = £0.77 at 5/7/2017). i) GSK's 2012 acquisition of Benlysta gives an implied potential takeover price for IMM's Lupuzor (on satisfactory Phase 3 results) of £5.39 billion (and the old 2012 figures could potentially be revised upwards for inflation and Lupuzor's potential to treat multiple health issues, e.g. Rheumatoid Arthritis). j) IMM's market capitalisation @ 54.75p = £72.56 million (5/7/2017) k) IMM's market capitalisation in a potential £5.39 billion ($7 billion) takeover = 3972p (£39.72) i.e. 72.56x the share price of 54.75p l) In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on 50% stake in Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017) j) IMM is fully funded to end 2018 (following a Placing in March 2017) taking them well past the Phase 3 Lupuzor results in Q1 2018. k) Obviously a potential 70+ multiple from the current share price level would represent an excellent return for shareholders. Even half that (35 x multiple) would be superb. (This is just based on Lupuzor treating Lupus, without the other potential indications for Lupuzor, or the rest of the pipeline). Significantly, Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score". The RA market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations. Presentation, 4/7/2017: "HGS's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..." 35 min 0 sec https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuybqexHauE Presentation, 14/3/2017: "There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug." 4 min 40 sec. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5Af_uSSXTM Presentation, 26/4/2017: IMM have found "precisely the peptide that can prevent lupus...and at the exact place where the disease originates, the very source of immune defence ... P140 ... Lupuzor" but allows the immune system to remain intact, without affecting the rest of the immune system - so it is a real breakthrough. It is also relevent to treating other autoimmune diseases. 4 min 10 sec: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7VG3KCRoS8 Immupharma, Best in Class Lupuzor. Buy, target 232p (Pre PIII Lupuzor). Cenkos, 18/9/2012 hTTp://immupharma.org/sites/default/themes/immu_base/images/user/Immupharma_initiation_note_FINAL_18_September_2012.pdf Melanie Regnaud Woman named Melanie Regnaud who is a longstanding lupus sufferer takes Lupuzor in the current Phase 3 trial and gets better: May 2017 article - hTTps://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&;u=http://www.objectifsante.mu/article/3295/melanie-regnaud-ceci-est-ma-lutte-contre-le-lupus&prev=search Now leading a normal life and has her first ever boyfriend. Barbie Manchester Woman named Barbie Manchester from North Carolina with terminal Lupus took Lupuzor under Right to Try legislation, with the result she didn't know she was ill during that time. Since then she has had other treatments none of which gave the benefits of lupuzor: hTTp://mtairynews.com/news/35165/right-to-try-act-tries-to-provide-easier-access-to-experimental-drugs-in-north-carolina The drug administered in her first trial, Lupuzor, worked well. But after three years, the trial ended. “That was very devastating,” she said. “For me personally, that was the best medication. You’d never have known I was sick.” N.B. No investment advice intended. Please do your own research.
07/7/2017
13:36
hottingup: My personal investment rationale is basically as follows: a) IMM’s lead drug Lupuzor (treating the serious condition Lupus) is currently in Phase 3 trials, with headline results expected March 2018. Granted a ‘SPA’ and ‘Fast Track’ status by the US FDA. b) Lupuzor is said by IMM and analysts to be a potential ‘blockbuster’, with estimates of sales just for treating Lupus ranging from $1 billion pa to $4 billion pa. c) Lupuzor may potentially be of use in other indications (some of which have potential for Orphan Drug status) including: Rheumatoid Arthritis / Juvenile Arthritis (Market size $16bn) Mixed Connective Tissue Disease Sjogren's Syndrome (Market size $0.5 bn) Multiple Sclerosis (Market size $14 bn) Insulin Dependent Diabetes (Market size $2 2bn) Crohn's Disease (Market size $3.5 bn) Bullous Pemphigoid (Target market size $1.6bn) Fibromyalgia, Muscular Dystrophy, Parkinson's, Asthma and Alzheimer’s. (An analyst note reportedly states they, "understand that a majority of Phase IIb patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score...)". d) The market for treating Lupus is currently served by GSK’s Benlysta, which is not particularly efficacious and has side effects. e) IMM’s published trial data for Lupuzor is said to indicate it may be more efficacious than Benlysta and without the side effects. Lupuzor could thus potentially replace Benlysta and widen the market. f) Revenues could be huge. Treating 50,000 patients for 1 year at US $20,000 each generates $1 billion revenue (and gross margins are said to be 95%). Treating 50,000 patients for 1 year at US $30,000 each generates $1.5 billion revenue g) In 2012 GSK took over HGS for $3.6 billion (to obtain their 50% stake in Benlysta) giving an implied Year 2012 100% valuation for Benlysta of approximately $7 billion ($7000,000,000), (plus approximately $200m for a couple of other drugs HGS had). h) $7 billion = £5.39 billion ($1 = £0.77 at 5/7/2017). i) The acquisition of Benlysta in 2012 by GSK gives an implied potential takeover price for IMM’s Lupuzor (assuming satisfactory Phase 3 results) of £5.39 billion (and the now old 2012 figures could potentially be revised upwards). j) IMM’s current market capitalisation = £72.56 million, at 54.75p (5/7/2017) k) IMM’s potential £5.39 billion market capitalisation in a takeover = 3972p (£39.72) i.e. 72.56 x the current share price of 54.75p l) IMM is fully funded to end 2018 (following a Placing in March 2017). m) Obviously a potential 70+ multiple from the current share price level would represent an excellent return for shareholders. Even half that (35 x multiple) would be superb. (This is just based on Lupuzor treating Lupus, without the other potential indications for Lupuzor or the rest of the pipeline). 4/7/2017 “HGS’s takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion…and that’s in 2012…so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher…a novel treatment for lupus could command that price…because it already has…” 35 min 0 sec https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuybqexHauE 14/3/2017 "There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug." 4 min 40 sec. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5Af_uSSXTM N.B. No investment advice intended. Please do your own research.
28/6/2017
10:25
sicilian_kan: There are 3 options: 1. A licensing deal for Lupuzor (lupus only), in a global or regional form. 2. A licensing deal for P140 (all autoimmune indications). 3. A buyout of the company. I think option 1 to be the most unlikely. Pharma would be much more comfortable taking options 2 or 3 for two reasons. First, just having a lupus drug will interfere with their pipelines. If they want an autoimmune pipeline, taking on a Lupus only license will either create a conflict with an existing pipeline or a future conflict if they are trying to build one. Second, taking on P140 or the company gives multiple possible hits. This derisks the purchase and enables the acquirer to not take the corporate or professional hit if, contrary to expectation, the first indication is unsuccessful. I think that option 2 is more likely that option 3. A buyout limits the upside to Immupharma, which we know the board do not want - they have high expectations and values on Lupuzor - and maximises the upfront exposure and risk for the pharma co acquiring. It would not be cheap. We have Zimmer for example continuing to invest and buying >£700k of shares since the recent Phase 3 launch etc. The board know the value of Lupuzor and P140. Heck, even nobby is saying we are significantly undervalued at present. Unless a very large sum was paid, I cannot see a buyout being an option, unless of course the remainder of the pipeline is also of interest to the acquirer, e.g. diabetes etc. There remains a possibility, but I think option 2 to be more likely. So we are looking at a potential licensing deal P140. I don't doubt that a deal could be struck. The question as ever is the price. Up front and royalty % in particular being the most important. What we do know is that the board are keen on the pipeline and the potential for P140. We also know Zimmer likes to keep a large % holding in Immupharma. The last thing I think the board would want to risk Lupuzor missing its targets (however confident they are in the trial succeeding) because if Lupuzor fails the lupus trial, then how are they going to raise funds thereafter for e.g. RA? Particularly given the funding took a while to arrange for Lupuzor. Do they really want to risk losing everything (RA, Crohn's, diabetes, ophthalmic etc) when they clearly have great belief in the pipeline, all for a punt on Lupuzor, particularly when the rewards in RA are immense and dwarf the rewards for lupus, which are potentially blockbuster in themselves? In short, I think it would be foolhardy for the board to risk going it alone at this stage given the potential in other indications. Not only this, but we know the board want to negotiate a deal too. They have even stated in the very recent Annual Report that they are in negotiations: "The Company raised the funds [£4.1m in March 2017 - sk] in order to further strengthen the Company’s Statement of Financial Position as negotiations continue with potential partners for Lupuzor™ and to support further investment in ImmuPharma’s earlier stage portfolio." I'm hoping for something in the region of close to $100m up front with 17-20% royalties on Lupuzor with the remaining P140 indications potentially having 13-15% royalties. The up front fee is a drop in the ocean for even mid sized pharma, particularly if acquiring the majority of a late stage Phase 3 drug with imminent results and a potential autoimmune platform in RA etc. I'm sure a deal can be struck and it should be lucrative and transformative for the company and its share price. I think that what makes it likely and different to last time is the potential autoimmune platform. But as ever, this is out of our hands and it remains just a possibility. I may be wrong. That said, I am holding because I believe that this must surely be in everyone's best interests and because I think a deal can be done. I also believe the company is massively undervalued and that any deal will send the IMM shareprice into the relative stratosphere. First stop the broker target of 171p on a deal?
13/4/2017
10:30
jaknife: Why Lupus treatment is a potential game-changer Drug in development could have blockbuster potential for ImmuPharma Lupus was recently thrust into the spotlight after singer Selena Gomez cancelled her world tour to deal with the autoimmune chronic inflammatory disease, which currently has no cure. Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM:AIM) has a pivotal year ahead as it undergoes its Phase III trial for its lead treatment Lupuzor to help treat lupus. The drug has been tipped to have blockbuster status. Management expects to provide incremental updates on the trial ahead of reporting top line results in the first quarter of 2018 as the final step before filing for marketing approval with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). WHAT IS LUPUS? The disease causes the body to make antibodies that attack healthy tissue. Typical symptoms include rashes, fatigue, joint pain and swelling, but it can be fatal as kidney failure can occur. Currently lupus is treated through low-dose steroids, immunosuppressants, antimalarials and high-dose steroids. HOW DOES IMMUPHARMA PLAN TO TREAT THE CONDITION? Lupuzor is a drug that works on the immune system of lupus patients by modifying the behaviour of certain key cells involved in the development of the disease. It is 100% owned by ImmuPharma. The drug suppresses the symptoms without any side effects recorded so far as the Phase IIb trial demonstrated significant efficiency and safety. The symptom-free nature of Lupuzor is achieved by not activating t-cells that can trigger auto antibody production. This is a typical response when new drugs are introduced into the body. It has also shown potential in treating other conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease and asthma. WHAT IS THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE? Over the past 50 years, there has only been one approved drug: Benlysta owned by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). However, this is only marginally effective and carries significant side-effects. If ImmuPharma can get its treatment approved, it would not have much competition in what is essentially an area of unmet medical need. An estimated 5m people worldwide suffer from lupus. The FDA recognises the potential of Lupuzor as it has received fast-track designation, which means the review of the drug will be expedited. It has also been granted the gold standard special protocol assessment by the FDA. This means if ImmuPharma adheres to the same protocol as its Phase IIb study and delivers positive results, the federal agency will not request a further trial with different endpoints. It also means different outcomes will not have to be pursued in further trials, which should reduce costs. ‘BLOCKBUSTER POTENTIAL’ Northland Capital Partners analyst Vadim Alexandre believes the shares are grossly undervalued. He has a target price of 171p, which is more than three times ImmuPharma’s current share price of 50.7p. Vadim says: ‘The drug has been looked upon favourably by US regulators, which have deemed it a priority treatment. ‘Should the drug be approved, we estimate it could achieve multi-billion dollar annual sales.’ It is important to highlight that despite its side-effects, GSK’s Benlysta reached sales of over $400m in 2015 with annual sales predicted to hit $1bn by 2020. Lupuzor has demonstrated it is safer and more effective than Benlysta in its Phase IIb trial, and may benefit from higher uptake by lupus sufferers if it is approved. Management anticipates that Lupuzor will also be cheaper than its competitor, which is currently priced at around $30,000 annually per person. WHAT ARE THE COMMERCIALISATION PLANS? ImmuPharma plans to commercialise the drug through licensing deals with big pharmaceutical companies that need new drugs in their pipeline to keep delivering profit growth. The company will receive royalties on sales from its global licensees. Currently, management estimates a 95% gross margin. Either a partner or the company will work with the manufacturer to make Lupuzor on a large scale. Marketing costs are expected to be low as management will target rheumatologist clinics that specialise in treating lupus sufferers. ImmuPharma’s market for Lupuzor is initially the US and wider North American continent with potential to expand to Europe and Japan. These are important markets for ImmuPharma as approximately 1.5m people suffer from the most severe form of lupus known as Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Europe, the US and Japan. The condition can involve various parts of the body and is more likely to affect certain ethnic groups and women. (LMJ) SHARES SAYS:  Although there are always risks in drug development, ImmuPharma looks attractive as Lupuzor has strong potential to treat a disease that currently has few effective treatment options.
30/12/2016
13:47
sicilian_kan: Happy New Year to all from me as well. And what a great way to start 2017... What is good to see is that IMM holders clearly know the value of their own shares and IMHO it is clearly far in excess of the current share price. The recent news has been important in a number of respects: 1. Tim has shown himself to be a very, very credible chairman. He hit his target for completion of patient recruitment by year end. He has also been shown to be correct in his decision to bring Lanstead on board, who have been very sensible in the management of their holding. In short, when Tim says something now, we will be very inclined to listen very carefully. 2. Now that patient recruitment has been completed, the clock is ticking and there is a known period of time to the end of the trial. If a deal is to be struck (licensing or distribution) before the trial, it must take place within that period. i.e. in 2017. In addition, having a set period of time before trial results will be attractive to some IIs. 3. As referred to in passing above, we have seen Lanstead being very shrewd managers of their shareholding, happy to hold long when appropriate. I am convinced that they will want to carry some shares through to trial results. In any event, we know that they will not be monthly sellers. Where then for the share price? Obviously it can go up and down. No one can with any certaintly predict even that let alone a price. What I expect this year (and possibly earlier in the year rather than later) is either a licensing deal or a distribution deal. I would be surprised to see IMM wanting to wait until after the trial results to start these negotiations as it will delay the marketing of Lupuzor and deny IMM the opportunity to bring in substantial amounts of cash derisking the company. Obviously a distribution deal brings the greater rewards in the long term, if Lupuzor passess its Phase 3 trials. However a licensing deal is very attractive. Doing a licensing deal would allow IMM to (a) bring in a massive amount of cash to the company and (b) allow IMM to develop the very promising pipeline. Imagine the share price boost if e.g. $100m of cash came into the company, derisking the company in terms of price and portfolio risk and allowing RA, cancer, diabetes etc. all to be pushed on, with the possibility too of bridging studies for RA etc. Would IMM with a Pharma partner, $100m of cash, a potential blockbuster Phase 3 drug months away from its first Phase 3 results and with an RA, cancer, diabetes etc. pipeline (with bridging studies possible) be valued anywhere near £60m? Although IMM has been undervalued for ages, hard cash will be guaranteed to re-adjust the markets. The 171p price target would be well within range, and may well be revised upwards depending upon the deal terms. Investing in IMM now gives one the opportunity to going along with this ride for the potential revaluation of shares, whilst maintaining the opportunity to take some off and have a free carry in the event of such a deal not happening. I see it as no surprise that the shareprice has started to rise upon the completion of patient recruitment and the Lanstead news. As ever, prices can go up and down, trials can not go according to plan etc. and DYOR. But I for one will not be selling at anywhere near these levels.
28/3/2016
11:43
mudbath: ImmuPharma was pleased to confirm(Feb 2016) that the first US sites had opened in December 2015 and that the dosing of patients had commenced. Recruitment in the pivotal Phase III study for Lupuzor™ is set occur in up to 45 investigator sites; 10 sites in United States and 35 in Europe. This month ImmuPharma was pleased to confirm that the first European site in Bordeaux, France was now open and the patient recruitment process had commenced. Looking at the snails rate of progress "achieved" by IMM over the past 10 years,I wonder just how prolonged the period will be before the other 34 European sites are all opened and fully recruited. Will it even happen in 2016(or 2017)? And whilst my glass is distinctly half empty this morning;in the event of the IMM share price languishing at current levels,potentially causing Lanstead to make a reduced monthly settlement;will the placing and subscription proceeds prove adequate,particularly if the dosing schedule becomes more protracted than originally envisaged?
29/2/2016
12:12
mudbath: Has anyone an updated view on the implications of the "sharing agreement" having regard to the present IMM share price performance as opposed to that (seemingly) critical benchmark figure of 34.6667 pence ? "Should the Measured Price be below the Benchmark Price, the Company will receive less than 100 per cent. of the monthly settlement calculated on a pro rata basis and the Company will not be entitled to receive the shortfall at any later date." There is quite a discrepancy which would if maintained result in a significant pro rata shortfall.As the terms state,when its gone its gone.
08/2/2016
13:06
carnivale: Super, speculating that Landestead have sold short in expectation of the value share is assuming that they infringed the insider rules .. Anyone involved in the placing negociations ahead of the deal made public was subject to insider rules constraints . so if they had sold they could be fined . i may be naïve, but i doubt they would have taken that risk as regards the maths , i might be wrong and please correct me if i am , but here are a few example to illustrate my assertions lets assume that one month the share price is 15p a discount of 19.667 or 56% to the ref price of 34.6667 Landestead would pay imm £90,865.30 ( based on 803,782 shares) Landstead might sell ( or might not ) the 803,782 shrs in the market , and assuming they get the share price for the size ( not always a foregone conclusion ) Landestead would receive £120,567 from the mkt so the net profit for landstead is £29,702 Now lets take an ex at the other end of the spectrum lets assume the share price is 1.50 a premium of 332% to the ref price Landestead would pay IMM £908, 652 .and might or might not sell the 803k shares to the market and get £1,205, 673 ( assuming they can achieve 1.5 for the size )ł Landstead profit that month would then be : 297,020 Although Landstead makes a profit regardless of whether the share price is below the measured price , it makes much more when the orice is higher In the case of IMM , in the months where the share price is below the measured price , they receive less that they would have if the share price stayed at the measured price but in the cases where the share price is higher than the measured price it makes a lot more Imm and Landestead both have an interest in seeing a higher price Imm can withstand a long period of time with a share price below the measured price and still achieve a better cost of funding than the conventional one at 26p provided the share price rises sufficiently above the measured price for a while ... lets face it, if you do not think the share price will be above 50p or even £1 towards the 15 months to 20 months from now , it is because you think the trial is not succesful , in whicase you should not be invested , and it will not be because of the mechanics of the funding i hope this helps i could put the spreadsheet in here but i do not know how to ..
12/10/2015
23:50
sicilian_kan: Hi Dibs61 and other. I am just as much in the dark as you guys. It appears that there has been a serious of events all combining at the same time to cause the drop in the share price: (a) There has in the long term been a seller or sellers for some time; (b) There is at least concern that Richard Warr's estate have been sellers; (c) There have at best been delays in the $14m funding as on 27 July 2015 the conversion of the term sheet into a binding agreement was "anticipated in the next few weeks". This has not yet happened, which creates uncertainty and speculation. (d) Possibly as a result of the above clinicaltrials.gov still states that the Lupuzor Phase III trial "is not yet open for participant recruitment" (e) Immupharma is not yet in a position where it has other pipeline drugs (e.g. cancer, other indications of Lupuzor, urelix etc.) that sustain the market cap. (c), (d) and (e) have created the conditions where (a) and (b) can have a more serious impact than they otherwise might. The frustrating thing about this share is that it clearly is massively undervalued. It could without much difficulty 100 bag within circa 2 years if the Phase 3 results match the Phase 2b results. The IMM share price used to reflect this potential. When the company was last heading towards what people thought would be a Phase 3 trial, the share price hit 145p, with just a 20% royalty and some large milestones. Now we have 100% and a better pipeline to fall back on than before. So why is the share price in the doldrums. Well (a) to (e) spell out the short term reasons why. The reality though is that the real reason is a longer term one. One could understand that upon recovery of Lupuzor it would take time to unravel it. One could understand that getting the SPA was important and that it would shape negotiations with Big Pharma. One could understand obtaining the Darwin facility to gain leverage in negotiations. One could understand the appointment of Torreya, who could unlock doors to key people quickly, even if frustrated that the Board's connections and efforts were by default not enough. One could understand that if one couldn't extract the appropriate value for Lupuzor in a licensing deal, that the decision to retain 100% of Lupuzor was the correct one, even if that meant pushing back the multi-bagging. One can understand how the CRO deal / appointment and the setting up of Phase III with them can take some time. One can also understand how the illness and death of Richard Warr might have affected the company, though the new board does look strong. Cumulatively, we are looking at a long period that shareholders have had to wait for Lupuzor to be funded to progress, either by license, sale, partnership or self funding, even if most of that period is explainable. Having gone through the above, we have the US term sheet announced with $14m funding if the agreement is signed and made legally binding. But it has not yet been formalised. We do not know the terms of dilution or the funding facility, how relatively good it might be. We also do not know if or when it will be signed and it appears that there has been some slippage. On the one hand, the Board appears to be protecting our best interest - namely to extract fair value for Lupuzor and not to unnecessarily or to overly dilute our interest in it. On the other hand, if the board does not like selling the Crown jewels for a song, it should not have let IMM get to the stage where it was still negotiating funding as the share price drifts down to a 10 year company low based in part upon a lack of progress. Once funding, in whatever shape or form, is announced, I expect we will see a very good rise and that value will return to shareholders. In the interim, we are at the whim of the sellers and the vagaries of the market and market sentiment. Where that will lead us in the short term, I cannot say. It could be up or down. However, I remain positive that once this hurdle is overcome, the risk / reward ratio in IMM, assuming a balanced portfolio, and particularly at these prices, is one of the best on the stockmarket and that the share price on first patient dosing will be significantly higher than it is now. Obviously, if there is a further hiccup in trial funding, we are in a different short-medium situation.
Immupharma share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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