Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Immupharma LSE:IMM London Ordinary Share GB0033711010 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +7.50p +6.73% 119.00p 119.00p 120.00p 121.00p 111.00p 111.00p 992,338 16:29:01
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 0.2 -6.3 -4.5 - 165.97

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Date Time Title Posts
17/2/201819:55IMMUPHARMA - IN FINAL PHASE 3 LUPUS TRIAL TARGETING BLOCKBUSTER ($1bn+) REVENUES14,386
14/2/201818:49ImmuPharma - Global Potential Blockbusters & Huge Potential Upside85
22/1/201814:4550 Dollars1
04/1/201807:22cockerspaniel-
09/10/201707:08Sell order-

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17/2/2018
08:20
Immupharma Daily Update: Immupharma is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IMM. The last closing price for Immupharma was 111.50p.
Immupharma has a 4 week average price of 107.50p and a 12 week average price of 99p.
The 1 year high share price is 193p while the 1 year low share price is currently 44p.
There are currently 139,467,430 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,018,954 shares. The market capitalisation of Immupharma is £165,966,241.70.
15/2/2018
14:48
cockerspaniel: mswan: You aren't missing anything - the share price obviously is pricing in a low chance of success (based on any reasonable valuation of Lupuzur as an approved drug). So, you have to decide what the share price means. There is no shorting (shares are not borrowable), so the sellers can only be existing holders. The question is, do they know anything? I doubt whether any of the institutional holders do - they aren't specialist healthcare investors and won't talk to anyone outside the usual city analysts, hardly any of whom cover Immupharma. It is,of course possible, that one of them has heard something and has persuaded a holder to sell out. However, would they really be getting involved for a few thousand pounds of commission? That leaves large private shareholders - again, what will they know? Again, I don't see them having any extra source of information. There is, of course, the possibility, that information has leaked from the company. However,Immupharma is a very small company and any information is likely to be very tightly held. So, it is not obvious what the sellers might know that we don't (remembering of course, that they were until recently holders and presumably positive). Another possibility,that has been mentioned, is that some of the placing stock was sold round the back door, for some reason or other unrelated to the valuation of the shares (i.e. a tax play). So, there we have it. All will become clear when the results are released and we will find out whether the fall in share price was informed selling or random motion.
14/2/2018
21:16
oilbagger: Those who were long on IGG with IMM will have either had to pay more money or will have had their stops triggered. I must admit when these were over 180p, I thought that was a good strategy as they had guareenteed stops unlike holding physical shares. Hence, spread betting firms like IGG will have had a vested interest in the IMM share price falling as majority of spread bets were punting long.
14/2/2018
19:39
njb67: Rab + The placing gives them a fall back if we do not get a positive FDA decision in 2018, so I agree that is positive - That they were approached by Turner Pope and not seeking contingency monies themselves is for me a negative. ? - On the trial extension, I remain to be convinced that this is either positive or negative. If I was in the study and had done relatively well compared to off trial treatment, I would assume I was on Lupuzor and if I had done no better would assume placebo. Given the nature of Lupus, the lack of alternative treatments and lack of tolerability issues, then I would expect both groups to want to receive Lupuzor after the study ended. So overall, nothing much has changed. It all comes down to the phase 3 results and to a lesser extent the management. If both are good, then we will do well, if the former disappoints, then we will not. Was exactly the same in December. GL njb6714 Feb '18 - 17:53 - 13659 of 13682 Evening The case for investing in IMM has changed little since I bought in late last year. IMM have a very promising phase 3 product for a debilitating disease with limited and not particularly effective alternatives. A positive FDA approval in 2018 will make Lupuzor a very attractive prospect for pharmaceutical companies who can commercialise it at pace and scale. We know that there are a lot of companies looking to licence or acquire such assets and have cash to move quickly. While I continue to regard the often quoted share price estimates of £50 to £1200 per share as hopelessly unrealistic, a 2018 take-out price post positive FDA decision around £10-£15 is quite possible. It would make those who have invested here a very handsome return. IMM is though, a speculative, high risk investment. The phase 3 results are not guaranteed and if they are insufficient to secure a positive FDA approval this year, then the near to medium term value of the company will be severely impaired and in my view the market will value this at close to zero. A second year-long phase 3 study, if commenced in Q3 2018, would be unlikely to report out until late 2020 / early 2021, given the time it takes to set up, recruit and run the trials. It would not be certain to lead to an FDA approval either. The money raised in the recent placing should cover a second phase three study but whether there is any left over to fund the development of the Nucant and Urelix research programmes is debatable. This would leave us in a best case scenario of being two to three years from having any approved products or generating revenues. We will be valued as such. Whether IMM delivers for us shareholders comes down to whether Lupuzor can secure FDA approval in 2018 and the management. I posted at the time of the placing that I was pleased as a shareholder that IMM raised the £10m, as it provided a safety net in case the phase three results do not deliver. My concern was not that we raised the money but it took an unsolicited approach from Turner Pope for the Board to do so. It would have been a huge failure of management in my view to not seek to raise monies to protect shareholder value in the eventuality of us not securing an FDA approval. I would also personally prefer my Chairman to under promise and over-deliver so have not been impressed with his assertions that Lupuzor is a certain multi-billion dollar product. I have been on the wrong end of overly confident Chairmen in the past (TPL being a prime example), so hoping this is not the case here. I still hold my original purchase, am under water, but have always viewed this as a speculative purchase. Daily share price movements are largely irrelevant and in the same way it increased four- fold at the back end of last year, it is now reversing some of these gains. What is important is the fundamentals of the underlying business. GL all.
14/2/2018
17:53
njb67: Evening The case for investing in IMM has changed little since I bought in late last year. IMM have a very promising phase 3 product for a debilitating disease with limited and not particularly effective alternatives. A positive FDA approval in 2018 will make Lupuzor a very attractive prospect for pharmaceutical companies who can commercialise it at pace and scale. We know that there are a lot of companies looking to licence or acquire such assets and have cash to move quickly. While I continue to regard the often quoted share price estimates of £50 to £1200 per share as hopelessly unrealistic, a 2018 take-out price post positive FDA decision around £10-£15 is quite possible. It would make those who have invested here a very handsome return. IMM is though, a speculative, high risk investment. The phase 3 results are not guaranteed and if they are insufficient to secure a positive FDA approval this year, then the near to medium term value of the company will be severely impaired and in my view the market will value this at close to zero. A second year-long phase 3 study, if commenced in Q3 2018, would be unlikely to report out until late 2020 / early 2021, given the time it takes to set up, recruit and run the trials. It would not be certain to lead to an FDA approval either. The money raised in the recent placing should cover a second phase three study but whether there is any left over to fund the development of the Nucant and Urelix research programmes is debatable. This would leave us in a best case scenario of being two to three years from having any approved products or generating revenues. We will be valued as such. Whether IMM delivers for us shareholders comes down to whether Lupuzor can secure FDA approval in 2018 and the management. I posted at the time of the placing that I was pleased as a shareholder that IMM raised the £10m, as it provided a safety net in case the phase three results do not deliver. My concern was not that we raised the money but it took an unsolicited approach from Turner Pope for the Board to do so. It would have been a huge failure of management in my view to not seek to raise monies to protect shareholder value in the eventuality of us not securing an FDA approval. I would also personally prefer my Chairman to under promise and over-deliver so have not been impressed with his assertions that Lupuzor is a certain multi-billion dollar product. I have been on the wrong end of overly confident Chairmen in the past (TPL being a prime example), so hoping this is not the case here. I still hold my original purchase, am under water, but have always viewed this as a speculative purchase. Daily share price movements are largely irrelevant and in the same way it increased four- fold at the back end of last year, it is now reversing some of these gains. What is important is the fundamentals of the underlying business. GL all.
08/2/2018
15:06
55nobby: The real bidding war will begin after the results are known: che7win 29 Jan '18 - 15:06 - 163 of 164 hTTps://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=41748273&from=163 Dated 29/10/18 (error - means 29/1/2018) IMM talk with Tim McCarthy I had a 40 minute chat with Tim McCarthy (hereafter ‘Tim’) the Chairman of ImmuPharma this morning. I wanted to understand some of the background to the recent fund raising primarily and also some more details around the Phase III trial finishing. I also wanted to put some negative downside risks to Tim to understand the full picture, read the following at your own risk and in that context. No advice is intended, DYOR. Some of my conversation I will not publicize, but nothing that has been said to me isn’t in the public domain, except maybe a bit of the background around the fund raising. Tim also agreed that I could make known the conversation if I wanted to. I DO NOT WANT this conversation reproduced anywhere else, please don’t copy elsewhere. I am NOT stating any of my own opinions here, this is a factual post on the conversation this morning. If I do make my own opinion below, it is within <> brackets. 1. The Fund raising Tim had taken part in a few interviews after the completion of the Phase III study announced via RNS on 18th January. I asked about the background to the fund raising and timing. Institutions have always been interested in IMM, but the company was approached expectantly AFTER Tim had carried out those interviews. This was categorically stated when I pressed on this. The participating institutions wanted to have a stake in IMM in size, they couldn’t get that stake in the market. They made available £10m, none of them have a declarable interest in the business (above 3%) if I heard Tim correctly. All of them are in the healthcare sector and are deemed to be long term investors. I asked the question when the company was aware of this approach: Answer - It was only on the weekend after the interviews – two weekends ago - so 20th January and the fund raising was then completed on Tuesday 23rd January. Tim stated, the fundamentals are there, but the offer of £10m from reputable investors had to be taken seriously. They (IMM) did not go seeking the funding, good institutions wanted to invest in IMM. It was stated as in all the recent RNS’s that the company is confident that Phase III results will be published by end of Q1 and that they are very confident in the results. 2. Why is the share price where it’s at? Tim did state that the fundamentals are the same as when the share price was at 182p recently. It was mentioned that we can look back at other times when the share price fell and bounced back, for instance after the New Year. Some investors came back and decided to sell, but share price since bounced back. The trend can be observed as going up. 3. What is the normal procedure during the Phase III trial? This procedure that happened for IMM’s phase III trial of Lupuzor is the same normal procedure as takes place with any other trial. In our case, the trial took place over 24 months – recruitment over a 12 month period, with the patient study over 12 month period. The first patient then begins the trial, the last patient began 9 months later. What happens every month is that the monthly dose is administered and measurements are taken. The patients scorecard is entered into the database (‘DB’) as the trial proceeds, data being collected on the go. At the end of the study, there will be residual data to be added into the DB for the last patient. If the above procedure didn’t take place, it would be a bit of an exercise at the end to collate all the data. With all the final data entered, the DB is populated. It then has to be checked and corrected. This is also done as the trials goes along. After the trial has ended, i.e. now at the end of the trial period, over the next few weeks the DB is locked down. At that point, the data is unblended and statisticians can go about their job in extracting information from the DB. The company has stated results by end of March, the above is the normal procedure. What they can say at this stage is that the safety of Lupuzor is totally ok, the placebo and active patient administration was completely safe. So that, as it were, is a tick in the box for the trial on safety. The rest of the results, we wait on. 4. I asked about previous trial results, namely the Phase IIb trial that Cephalon carried out and what went wrong? Some background can be found here: hTTp://lup.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/03/18/0961203314525249.full.pdf As you know, the Phase II trials that IMM carried out were very successful, hence why we have Special Protocol Assessment for the trial from the FDA. This means that (a) the FDA has approved the trial structure and (b) the FDA will accept an efficacy claim from the Phase III trial if the endpoint is met. So a positive outcome in Phase III should lead to FDA approval. To give the definition of an excipient: “An excipient is ‘‘a usually inert substance (as gum arabic, syrup, lanolin, or starch) that forms a vehicle (as for a drug or antigen); especially: one that in the presence of sufficient liquid gives a medicated mixture the adhesive quality needed for the preparation of pills or tablets’&rsquo;. In reality, a number of classical excipients show notable side effects, and these are clearly mentioned on the accompanying package leaflet of drugs.” So Lupuzor had been licensed to Cephalon in the States, and to cut a long story short, Cephalon, independently of IMM and Dr Muller’s advice used the wrong excipient (trehalose). Again, this was against Dr Muller’s advice and so the outcome was expected and can be ignored. The company and Dr Muller knew it would fail, IMM did their own Phase II and results were good as expected and with correct excipient used. Regulatory rules state results have to be made known, FDA as mentioned have since put a fast track on Lupuzor. 5. The question I asked next will remain confidential to me and my closest contacts only. I will say only this, don’t trust anyone on the boards and be careful of motives. The company has posted all data and published results are there for all to see. Don’t ask me about this question, I’m satisfied with the answer. 6. Another quick question asked on the fund raising. It was at approximately a 10% discount at the time i.e. normal placing discount. 7. I asked about the patients and Investigators requesting to continue to receive Lupuzor. From the RNS: “Separately, following requests from both Investigators and patients involved in the Phase III study, ImmuPharma is initiating a "follow-up" study permitting eligible patients from the completed Phase III study, to receive Lupuzor™ (plus "Standard of Care") for a further six months in an open-label scheme. The results will be gathered as an "extension" open label study, independent of the pivotal Phase III trial which is now completed.” The company see this as being very positive as they indicated in interviews. Patients wouldn’t request to stay on for no reason. 8. I asked about the Placebo patients and what care they would have been receiving during the trial. The placebo patients would have received the same standard of care that they were receiving before the trial began. So, for instance, if they had been receiving drugs e.g. steroids before the trial began, they would have continued to have received them during the trial. This sometimes adds to the placebo effect, an archetypal placebo response expected, but things like depression for instance can affect results. Again, the fact that patients and doctors wanted to stay on the drug, one can surmise that they are seeing some benefit to being on the trial. The phase II trial indicated some placebo effect, but statistically, after 3 months, there was an improvement. Placebo can only be active for so long. So over a 12 month period, these things of course tend to even out. Over 12 months, there will be some placebo ‘responders&rsquo;, and active responders. The difference needs to be statistically good enough. 9. I questioned the FDA Special protocol assessment as they formally agreed 2 studies for Phase III a few years ago. They received approval for the trial for Phase III as they have done. Tim pointed out that the FDA approach has changed recently with a new man at the top who taking a new approach and is especially interested in fast tracking drugs where the need us unmet. With Phase III results, they will be able to go to FDA and indicate the unmet need alongside the fantastic results. They would expect approval, but could be asked to do a pilot study (extension study) at the same time as the drug going into production and selling . 10. The open label scheme: Since Phase III is complete, they can continue with the drug administration at very little cost for the open label scheme. Phase III upfront setup costs are high – recruiting patients etc. None of this is needed now, but the advantage to the company for this unsolicited request is that they can leverage the data off it, with no upfront costs, it’s very efficient and they are getting real data. 11. On phase III outcome Obviously they can’t call it, but all the indications are positive at this stage. 12. On interest from other pharma. They have had lots of interest. Pharma companies work in a strange way. They are very risk adverse, but have a lot of cash. Cash is not a problem for them. What they want is good, innovative drugs, e.g. like Lupuzor. They will know at a certain level in their company (managers) that a certain drug could make billions for them, but they won’t approach at that time to takeover before trial outcome. If a manager did initiate a take over of a drug company before outcome known, and the drug failed, the managers would be in the firing line. What they are prepared to do is to pay 10-20 times the share price for a company – after the trial known. They would rather be in a position to compete with others for a drug when the outcome of a trial is known – after the event. 13. Likely outcome. Possible outcome mentioned: License deal first, then as drug proves itself in market, then the company that licensed buys the drug company out. Drug gains market share, makes sense to buy it out. So all outcomes possible at this stage. 14. Share price performance. Last 2-3 years has been upwards, see movement. 15. I asked about broker targets and stated that if listed on Nasdaq, we would be many times current price. In States, an analyst will want to be recognised and identify blockbuster drugs, then when they are successful, his name is made. They embrace exciting drugs and successfully identifying them , their name is made. Suffice to say, I’m happy and very grateful and excited to be owning IMM.
29/1/2018
16:00
55nobby: Reproduced in the interests of open free speech: che7win 29 Jan '18 - 15:06 - 163 of 164 hTTps://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=41748273&from=163 Dated 29/10/18 (error - means 29/1/2018) IMM talk with Tim McCarthy I had a 40 minute chat with Tim McCarthy (hereafter ‘Tim’) the Chairman of ImmuPharma this morning. I wanted to understand some of the background to the recent fund raising primarily and also some more details around the Phase III trial finishing. I also wanted to put some negative downside risks to Tim to understand the full picture, read the following at your own risk and in that context. No advice is intended, DYOR. Some of my conversation I will not publicize, but nothing that has been said to me isn’t in the public domain, except maybe a bit of the background around the fund raising. Tim also agreed that I could make known the conversation if I wanted to. I DO NOT WANT this conversation reproduced anywhere else, please don’t copy elsewhere. I am NOT stating any of my own opinions here, this is a factual post on the conversation this morning. If I do make my own opinion below, it is within <> brackets. 1. The Fund raising Tim had taken part in a few interviews after the completion of the Phase III study announced via RNS on 18th January. I asked about the background to the fund raising and timing. Institutions have always been interested in IMM, but the company was approached expectantly AFTER Tim had carried out those interviews. This was categorically stated when I pressed on this. The participating institutions wanted to have a stake in IMM in size, they couldn’t get that stake in the market. They made available £10m, none of them have a declarable interest in the business (above 3%) if I heard Tim correctly. All of them are in the healthcare sector and are deemed to be long term investors. I asked the question when the company was aware of this approach: Answer - It was only on the weekend after the interviews – two weekends ago - so 20th January and the fund raising was then completed on Tuesday 23rd January. Tim stated, the fundamentals are there, but the offer of £10m from reputable investors had to be taken seriously. They (IMM) did not go seeking the funding, good institutions wanted to invest in IMM. It was stated as in all the recent RNS’s that the company is confident that Phase III results will be published by end of Q1 and that they are very confident in the results. 2. Why is the share price where it’s at? Tim did state that the fundamentals are the same as when the share price was at 182p recently. It was mentioned that we can look back at other times when the share price fell and bounced back, for instance after the New Year. Some investors came back and decided to sell, but share price since bounced back. The trend can be observed as going up. 3. What is the normal procedure during the Phase III trial? This procedure that happened for IMM’s phase III trial of Lupuzor is the same normal procedure as takes place with any other trial. In our case, the trial took place over 24 months – recruitment over a 12 month period, with the patient study over 12 month period. The first patient then begins the trial, the last patient began 9 months later. What happens every month is that the monthly dose is administered and measurements are taken. The patients scorecard is entered into the database (‘DB’) as the trial proceeds, data being collected on the go. At the end of the study, there will be residual data to be added into the DB for the last patient. If the above procedure didn’t take place, it would be a bit of an exercise at the end to collate all the data. With all the final data entered, the DB is populated. It then has to be checked and corrected. This is also done as the trials goes along. After the trial has ended, i.e. now at the end of the trial period, over the next few weeks the DB is locked down. At that point, the data is unblended and statisticians can go about their job in extracting information from the DB. The company has stated results by end of March, the above is the normal procedure. What they can say at this stage is that the safety of Lupuzor is totally ok, the placebo and active patient administration was completely safe. So that, as it were, is a tick in the box for the trial on safety. The rest of the results, we wait on. 4. I asked about previous trial results, namely the Phase IIb trial that Cephalon carried out and what went wrong? Some background can be found here: hTTp://lup.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/03/18/0961203314525249.full.pdf As you know, the Phase II trials that IMM carried out were very successful, hence why we have Special Protocol Assessment for the trial from the FDA. This means that (a) the FDA has approved the trial structure and (b) the FDA will accept an efficacy claim from the Phase III trial if the endpoint is met. So a positive outcome in Phase III should lead to FDA approval. To give the definition of an excipient: “An excipient is ‘‘a usually inert substance (as gum arabic, syrup, lanolin, or starch) that forms a vehicle (as for a drug or antigen); especially: one that in the presence of sufficient liquid gives a medicated mixture the adhesive quality needed for the preparation of pills or tablets’&rsquo;. In reality, a number of classical excipients show notable side effects, and these are clearly mentioned on the accompanying package leaflet of drugs.” So Lupuzor had been licensed to Cephalon in the States, and to cut a long story short, Cephalon, independently of IMM and Dr Muller’s advice used the wrong excipient (trehalose). Again, this was against Dr Muller’s advice and so the outcome was expected and can be ignored. The company and Dr Muller knew it would fail, IMM did their own Phase II and results were good as expected and with correct excipient used. Regulatory rules state results have to be made known, FDA as mentioned have since put a fast track on Lupuzor. 5. The question I asked next will remain confidential to me and my closest contacts only. I will say only this, don’t trust anyone on the boards and be careful of motives. The company has posted all data and published results are there for all to see. Don’t ask me about this question, I’m satisfied with the answer. 6. Another quick question asked on the fund raising. It was at approximately a 10% discount at the time i.e. normal placing discount. 7. I asked about the patients and Investigators requesting to continue to receive Lupuzor. From the RNS: “Separately, following requests from both Investigators and patients involved in the Phase III study, ImmuPharma is initiating a "follow-up" study permitting eligible patients from the completed Phase III study, to receive Lupuzor™ (plus "Standard of Care") for a further six months in an open-label scheme. The results will be gathered as an "extension" open label study, independent of the pivotal Phase III trial which is now completed.” The company see this as being very positive as they indicated in interviews. Patients wouldn’t request to stay on for no reason. 8. I asked about the Placebo patients and what care they would have been receiving during the trial. The placebo patients would have received the same standard of care that they were receiving before the trial began. So, for instance, if they had been receiving drugs e.g. steroids before the trial began, they would have continued to have received them during the trial. This sometimes adds to the placebo effect, an archetypal placebo response expected, but things like depression for instance can affect results. Again, the fact that patients and doctors wanted to stay on the drug, one can surmise that they are seeing some benefit to being on the trial. The phase II trial indicated some placebo effect, but statistically, after 3 months, there was an improvement. Placebo can only be active for so long. So over a 12 month period, these things of course tend to even out. Over 12 months, there will be some placebo ‘responders&rsquo;, and active responders. The difference needs to be statistically good enough. 9. I questioned the FDA Special protocol assessment as they formally agreed 2 studies for Phase III a few years ago. They received approval for the trial for Phase III as they have done. Tim pointed out that the FDA approach has changed recently with a new man at the top who taking a new approach and is especially interested in fast tracking drugs where the need us unmet. With Phase III results, they will be able to go to FDA and indicate the unmet need alongside the fantastic results. They would expect approval, but could be asked to do a pilot study (extension study) at the same time as the drug going into production and selling . 10. The open label scheme: Since Phase III is complete, they can continue with the drug administration at very little cost for the open label scheme. Phase III upfront setup costs are high – recruiting patients etc. None of this is needed now, but the advantage to the company for this unsolicited request is that they can leverage the data off it, with no upfront costs, it’s very efficient and they are getting real data. 11. On phase III outcome Obviously they can’t call it, but all the indications are positive at this stage. 12. On interest from other pharma. They have had lots of interest. Pharma companies work in a strange way. They are very risk adverse, but have a lot of cash. Cash is not a problem for them. What they want is good, innovative drugs, e.g. like Lupuzor. They will know at a certain level in their company (managers) that a certain drug could make billions for them, but they won’t approach at that time to takeover before trial outcome. If a manager did initiate a take over of a drug company before outcome known, and the drug failed, the managers would be in the firing line. What they are prepared to do is to pay 10-20 times the share price for a company – after the trial known. They would rather be in a position to compete with others for a drug when the outcome of a trial is known – after the event. 13. Likely outcome. Possible outcome mentioned: License deal first, then as drug proves itself in market, then the company that licensed buys the drug company out. Drug gains market share, makes sense to buy it out. So all outcomes possible at this stage. 14. Share price performance. Last 2-3 years has been upwards, see movement. 15. I asked about broker targets and stated that if listed on Nasdaq, we would be many times current price. In States, an analyst will want to be recognised and identify blockbuster drugs, then when they are successful, his name is made. They embrace exciting drugs and successfully identifying them , their name is made. Suffice to say, I’m happy and very grateful and excited to be owning IMM.
29/1/2018
15:18
top tips: che7win 29 Jan '18 - 15:06 - 163 of 164 hTTps://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=41748273&from=163 Dated 29/10/18 IMM talk with Tim McCarthy I had a 40 minute chat with Tim McCarthy (hereafter ‘Tim’) the Chairman of ImmuPharma this morning. I wanted to understand some of the background to the recent fund raising primarily and also some more details around the Phase III trial finishing. I also wanted to put some negative downside risks to Tim to understand the full picture, read the following at your own risk and in that context. No advice is intended, DYOR. Some of my conversation I will not publicize, but nothing that has been said to me isn’t in the public domain, except maybe a bit of the background around the fund raising. Tim also agreed that I could make known the conversation if I wanted to. I DO NOT WANT this conversation reproduced anywhere else, please don’t copy elsewhere. I am NOT stating any of my own opinions here, this is a factual post on the conversation this morning. If I do make my own opinion below, it is within <> brackets. 1. The Fund raising Tim had taken part in a few interviews after the completion of the Phase III study announced via RNS on 18th January. I asked about the background to the fund raising and timing. Institutions have always been interested in IMM, but the company was approached expectantly AFTER Tim had carried out those interviews. This was categorically stated when I pressed on this. The participating institutions wanted to have a stake in IMM in size, they couldn’t get that stake in the market. They made available £10m, none of them have a declarable interest in the business (above 3%) if I heard Tim correctly. All of them are in the healthcare sector and are deemed to be long term investors. I asked the question when the company was aware of this approach: Answer - It was only on the weekend after the interviews – two weekends ago - so 20th January and the fund raising was then completed on Tuesday 23rd January. Tim stated, the fundamentals are there, but the offer of £10m from reputable investors had to be taken seriously. They (IMM) did not go seeking the funding, good institutions wanted to invest in IMM. It was stated as in all the recent RNS’s that the company is confident that Phase III results will be published by end of Q1 and that they are very confident in the results. 2. Why is the share price where it’s at? Tim did state that the fundamentals are the same as when the share price was at 182p recently. It was mentioned that we can look back at other times when the share price fell and bounced back, for instance after the New Year. Some investors came back and decided to sell, but share price since bounced back. The trend can be observed as going up. 3. What is the normal procedure during the Phase III trial? This procedure that happened for IMM’s phase III trial of Lupuzor is the same normal procedure as takes place with any other trial. In our case, the trial took place over 24 months – recruitment over a 12 month period, with the patient study over 12 month period. The first patient then begins the trial, the last patient began 9 months later. What happens every month is that the monthly dose is administered and measurements are taken. The patients scorecard is entered into the database (‘DB’) as the trial proceeds, data being collected on the go. At the end of the study, there will be residual data to be added into the DB for the last patient. If the above procedure didn’t take place, it would be a bit of an exercise at the end to collate all the data. With all the final data entered, the DB is populated. It then has to be checked and corrected. This is also done as the trials goes along. After the trial has ended, i.e. now at the end of the trial period, over the next few weeks the DB is locked down. At that point, the data is unblended and statisticians can go about their job in extracting information from the DB. The company has stated results by end of March, the above is the normal procedure. What they can say at this stage is that the safety of Lupuzor is totally ok, the placebo and active patient administration was completely safe. So that, as it were, is a tick in the box for the trial on safety. The rest of the results, we wait on. 4. I asked about previous trial results, namely the Phase IIb trial that Cephalon carried out and what went wrong? Some background can be found here: hTTp://lup.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/03/18/0961203314525249.full.pdf As you know, the Phase II trials that IMM carried out were very successful, hence why we have Special Protocol Assessment for the trial from the FDA. This means that (a) the FDA has approved the trial structure and (b) the FDA will accept an efficacy claim from the Phase III trial if the endpoint is met. So a positive outcome in Phase III should lead to FDA approval. To give the definition of an excipient: “An excipient is ‘‘a usually inert substance (as gum arabic, syrup, lanolin, or starch) that forms a vehicle (as for a drug or antigen); especially: one that in the presence of sufficient liquid gives a medicated mixture the adhesive quality needed for the preparation of pills or tablets’&rsquo;. In reality, a number of classical excipients show notable side effects, and these are clearly mentioned on the accompanying package leaflet of drugs.” So Lupuzor had been licensed to Cephalon in the States, and to cut a long story short, Cephalon, independently of IMM and Dr Muller’s advice used the wrong excipient (trehalose). Again, this was against Dr Muller’s advice and so the outcome was expected and can be ignored. The company and Dr Muller knew it would fail, IMM did their own Phase II and results were good as expected and with correct excipient used. Regulatory rules state results have to be made known, FDA as mentioned have since put a fast track on Lupuzor. 5. The question I asked next will remain confidential to me and my closest contacts only. I will say only this, don’t trust anyone on the boards and be careful of motives. The company has posted all data and published results are there for all to see. Don’t ask me about this question, I’m satisfied with the answer. 6. Another quick question asked on the fund raising. It was at approximately a 10% discount at the time i.e. normal placing discount. 7. I asked about the patients and Investigators requesting to continue to receive Lupuzor. From the RNS: “Separately, following requests from both Investigators and patients involved in the Phase III study, ImmuPharma is initiating a "follow-up" study permitting eligible patients from the completed Phase III study, to receive Lupuzor™ (plus "Standard of Care") for a further six months in an open-label scheme. The results will be gathered as an "extension" open label study, independent of the pivotal Phase III trial which is now completed.” The company see this as being very positive as they indicated in interviews. Patients wouldn’t request to stay on for no reason. 8. I asked about the Placebo patients and what care they would have been receiving during the trial. The placebo patients would have received the same standard of care that they were receiving before the trial began. So, for instance, if they had been receiving drugs e.g. steroids before the trial began, they would have continued to have received them during the trial. This sometimes adds to the placebo effect, an archetypal placebo response expected, but things like depression for instance can affect results. Again, the fact that patients and doctors wanted to stay on the drug, one can surmise that they are seeing some benefit to being on the trial. The phase II trial indicated some placebo effect, but statistically, after 3 months, there was an improvement. Placebo can only be active for so long. So over a 12 month period, these things of course tend to even out. Over 12 months, there will be some placebo ‘responders&rsquo;, and active responders. The difference needs to be statistically good enough. 9. I questioned the FDA Special protocol assessment as they formally agreed 2 studies for Phase III a few years ago. They received approval for the trial for Phase III as they have done. Tim pointed out that the FDA approach has changed recently with a new man at the top who taking a new approach and is especially interested in fast tracking drugs where the need us unmet. With Phase III results, they will be able to go to FDA and indicate the unmet need alongside the fantastic results. They would expect approval, but could be asked to do a pilot study (extension study) at the same time as the drug going into production and selling . 10. The open label scheme: Since Phase III is complete, they can continue with the drug administration at very little cost for the open label scheme. Phase III upfront setup costs are high – recruiting patients etc. None of this is needed now, but the advantage to the company for this unsolicited request is that they can leverage the data off it, with no upfront costs, it’s very efficient and they are getting real data. 11. On phase III outcome Obviously they can’t call it, but all the indications are positive at this stage. 12. On interest from other pharma. They have had lots of interest. Pharma companies work in a strange way. They are very risk adverse, but have a lot of cash. Cash is not a problem for them. What they want is good, innovative drugs, e.g. like Lupuzor. They will know at a certain level in their company (managers) that a certain drug could make billions for them, but they won’t approach at that time to takeover before trial outcome. If a manager did initiate a take over of a drug company before outcome known, and the drug failed, the managers would be in the firing line. What they are prepared to do is to pay 10-20 times the share price for a company – after the trial known. They would rather be in a position to compete with others for a drug when the outcome of a trial is known – after the event. 13. Likely outcome. Possible outcome mentioned: License deal first, then as drug proves itself in market, then the company that licensed buys the drug company out. Drug gains market share, makes sense to buy it out. So all outcomes possible at this stage. 14. Share price performance. Last 2-3 years has been upwards, see movement. 15. I asked about broker targets and stated that if listed on Nasdaq, we would be many times current price. In States, an analyst will want to be recognised and identify blockbuster drugs, then when they are successful, his name is made. They embrace exciting drugs and successfully identifying them , their name is made. Suffice to say, I’m happy and very grateful and excited to be owning IMM.
27/1/2018
09:09
chalky230: Seconduser Although they were collating data along the way they would never know who has the drug or the placebo The placebo can be very high sometime so I doubt they have much knowledge but who knows .... They would only really know the safety of it and what the company has said has been very positive I think from what I'm aware is all the data is analysed which can take a number of weeks and then its only then that the Data is UNBLINDED (when they they know who too the drug or the placebo ) Some people have suggested this could be in a few weeks time but who knows so I don't think we are seeing a price movement of the shares because of a leak in the results It's more to do with people derisking there position before the results and taken profits just incase the results are bad .. if I had bought in sub £1 I would have been selling a few so I think it's sensible .At the same time the company has done a similar thing and carried out a placing ... which everyone seems to be panicking about so you just have to take your own view on it .. On Tuesday all the shares will be traded on and we know we're all bought at £1.44 but i have no idea what the means Regards share price Personally I think all the people that bought in at £1.44 knows this is a punt and are prepared to gamble and I also think older investors have now de risked so I think what you will see now will be new investors coming in and risking a few shares as hopeful they will see the upside could be far greater .. obviously as the weeks goes by then it will be interesting to see the share price as statistically it's a fact a share price will go up or down prior to any announcements to the results Is this why the share has dropped now ?? I don't think so ... The placing would suggest that I now see the share price are at good a buy in level to risk with just weeks away from the results but it will be all or nothing Good luck
26/1/2018
14:21
miavoce: Hi Exploratory, I think the conversation may have gone something like this. Institutions : Hi IMM, we'd like to invest some cash into IMM please. IMM : Thanks for the offer but we don't really need any cash at the moment. We will do a cash raise after the Lupizor trial results are in and we can then raise cash at a much higher share price. Institutions : Fair play, but don't you think that is a bit of a gamble ? IMM : What do you mean ? Institutions : Well, we know that you are expecting great results based and you may well get them, but what if the trial didn't go quite as well as you expected ? Your share price won't look s hot then and you'll end up raising funds at a much lower share price. IMM : (Thinks)...mmm, they have a point, and we could raise a decent amount with minimal dilution at the moment, and it would be good to get trials for more indications underway sooner rather that later. (Speaks) How much were you thinking of... And the rest is history.
26/1/2018
10:56
hamila01: Now that IMM have some money in the bank I'd like to see them list on NASDAQ.AIM is just a bear pit and doesn't seriously give any real credibility to IMM when we see a share price manipulated as easily as it has been in recent days. How convenient that the share price has dropped recently, followed by some very large transactions.A lot of the takeovers mentioned have been for companies listed on NASDAQ and even MTFB have got a US listing.My big fear in all of this is that while IMM is mired in the cess pit that is AIM, we won't see true value when a deal finally comes in. Why would a big pharma shell out $bn's when they could easily have the share price manipulated to a lower level.I also think SUMM's performance yesterday and today is indicative of what will happen with IMM when positive results are hopefully announced soon.
Immupharma share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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