Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[immy1992] 03/1/2018 15:17

Cheers longterm happy New year to you too.

Imm has done all the right things since our debates around the 50p mark. All the ducks are lining up now.

[l0ngterm] 03/1/2018 15:16

Stealth: the cancer treatment was valued at 190 million at one point alone. See link below, this is still being developed as other posters have highlighted. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/18731

[stealth wealth] 03/1/2018 15:12

Two weeks to trial end. Gilead took over Kite Pharma for $11.9 billion cash in 2017, to get their one platform.

My understanding is IMM have two platforms - P140 (which includes Lupuzor) and Urelix, plus numerous drugs.

[englishlongbow] 03/1/2018 14:51

That's about E0.94 billion / $1.13 billion pa sales conservative estimate for Lupuzor, or as Tim McC says, it will be a multi billion dollar drug. Take your pick. I would personally expect Lupuzor sales to excede the predicted Benlysta sales of $1 billion pa by 2020 at some point and grow the lupus market as it is better tolerated and more efficaceous than Benlysta. Add in other indications and it will be even higher.

(1 Euro = 1.2 Dollars)

[113mike] 03/1/2018 14:50

no ramp intended like!

[113mike] 03/1/2018 14:48

why aren't we at least £10 a share already!?!

[hamhamham1] 03/1/2018 14:46

tt. Do you have a saved selection of quotes which you refer to and cut/paste here?
There are several which you have pasted exactly the same text over 20 times.
Sometimes several times in the same day.

[herschel k] 03/1/2018 14:32

the point being the word "CONSERVATIVELY"

[herschel k] 03/1/2018 14:32

tt,

you say it's old, but it's from here:

hxxp://www.epo.org/learning-events/european-inventor/finalists/2017/muller.html

"Marketed by ImmuPharma, Lupuzor (also known as Rigerimod, IPP-201101 and P140) is slated to launch in the US and five EU countries in 2018. Muller's breakthrough is heralded as a potential blockbuster drug for treating SLE. Based on revenues from current lupus medicines on the market, ImmuPharma conservatively estimates annual sales of Lupuzor could reach over EUR 940 million. The US market, where the drug is currently fast-tracked for FDA approval, is expected to contribute 80% of sales. The latest industry forecasts by GlobalData estimate that revenues from drugs to treat SLE and lupus nephritis (LN) - inflammation of the kidneys caused by SLE - in the world's seven largest pharmaceutical markets will reach EUR 3 billion by 2025."

[top tips] 03/1/2018 14:08

Shares Magazine
Small caps poised for big news in 2018:
We look at 19 stocks primed to deliver major events in their career
21/12/2017



"Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators."

[top tips] 03/1/2018 14:05

That is quite an old figure now herschel.

More up to date numbers were mentioned by Tim McCarthy who is talking about multi-billion $ sales:

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman)
14/3/2017

"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.

[metis20] 03/1/2018 14:04

Activity categories have been defined on the basis of SLEDAI scores: no activity (SLEDAI = 0), mild activity (SLEDAI = 1-5), moderate activity (SLEDAI = 6-10), high activity (SLEDAI = 11-19), and very high activity (SLEDAI 20) (21)

[herschel k] 03/1/2018 14:01

tt,

IMM themselves conservatively estimate annual revenue of 940m Euros.

H

[top tips] 03/1/2018 13:58

hottingup i just realised the Motley Fool article states -

"Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline̵6;s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn."

That $1bn is ours for the taking and a lot more.

[professor bang bang] 03/1/2018 13:49

Lupus is only the start as the platform works on several other diseases as well - we have all seen the list and market sizes.

[qs99] 03/1/2018 13:48

I'll take anywhere in that range SPBilly! buyers returned and MMs have topped up on that drop of share price ...GLA

[professor bang bang] 03/1/2018 13:24

hottingup, the patient inclusion criteria for the current Phase 3 trial states:

"The patient has a SLEDAI-2K clinical score of at least 6 points during screening."



So we can assume they have SLEDAI of at least 6 or more - meaning all patients are in the moderate to severe category !!!

IMM are also running with the 28 day dosing regimen, not the 14 day one.

For a possible indication of Phase 3 outcome its thus most relevent to now look at only the Phase 2b data relating to the moderate to severe group and on the 28 day dosing regimen, which produced the best results.

[pulledpork] 03/1/2018 13:21

Prof, I was talking about the 'interim' results but I think I'll stick with what Rabito79 said. Positve news might have had an impact on the placebo group and therefore the 'interim' results should be a better proxy for the phase 3 although they are based on a smaller sample size.

EDIT: ignore! Prof's post has been deleted

[cockerspaniel] 03/1/2018 13:21

I have only recently joined ADVFN, but have been following Immupharma for a long time (since launch).

I see lots of forecasts here, but the numbers are way off. People are overestimating the sales (based on a wrong idea of the potential market) and (perhaps compensating) using a royalty rate that is much too low.

1 There are nowhere near 1.5m patients with Lupus. Estimates of prevalence are around 20 per 100,000 - so we are talking 200,000 or so.

The high numbers come from the Lupus Foundation of America, which are not regarded as credible.



2 10% royalty rate is way too low.
A likely average royalty rate for sales of $500m is at least 30% (higher for sales of $1000m).

We are talking about a royalty stream of $100m to $500m (possibly higher).