Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 13:04

njb. I am not familiar with the history of nobby and their scientific qualifications. I can only go on the experience and qualifications of Sylviane Muller (which are verifiable).
And based on that info I know which one I would prefer to listen to.

[runtoma] 06/1/2018 13:01

medical rep njb67 is determined not to give us a breather from his incessant repetitive negative posts

[njb67] 06/1/2018 12:51

mark. No - he is a scientist, so definitely not me. He does not think Lupuzor works, I believe it does, which is why I am invested. It is the big investment risk though. We should know soon enough.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 12:49

spawny - yes. Not sure cynical, but definitely wrong.

I bought, still hold and am here for the ride.

Like a lot of posters, I see a price closer to £10 than the massive valuations being put on IMM. You will have read my reasons why.

I also know that IMM remains a high risk investment. If the Ph3 trial does not confirm the Ph2 results, then there will be big question marks over the commercial value of Lupuzor and the P140 platform. And IMM only have cash to get to the end of this year.

I would be delighted to be proven wrong and to wake up to a £10bn takeover RNS. I just do not see that happening.

Good luck all, do your own research and belated HNY!

[markymark33] 06/1/2018 12:46

njb = nobbygnome

[qs99] 06/1/2018 12:45

WEll I'll take £10 first stop which would put valuation just over £1bn on a successful Phase III and FDA, why not? DYOR but at least on the tip from today, we should see IMM through £2 so all of us in from 50-60p are sitting on nice gains but we are all I think waiting for the Phase III before working out the what next....GLA

[spawny100] 06/1/2018 12:32

Is it a conincidence that the incessant posts of njb talking the prospects down have stopped now that his job (of trying to scare people out of their shares prior to this tip) has been done? Or am I being too cynical?

[cockerspaniel] 06/1/2018 12:32

Once again, people are throwing some silly share price numbers around.

Assuming a successful phase III, let's see what is a sensible valuation.

First of all, let's look at the number of patients with Lupus.

Everyone serious (epidemiologists etc) gives a prevalence of 20 to 40 per 100,0000.

That means, among the 1 billion people in the developed countries, we are taking about 200,000 to 400,000 patients with Lupus.

So, getting 50,000 patients and $1 billion sales is possible, but could be 25% of the available market.

On that $1 billion, Immupharma should expect to earn a 40% average royalty rate and hence $400m pre-tax and $320m after a 20% tax deduction.

On a multiple of 7 (my personal rule of thumb for biotech), we are talking about a present value of $2240m or £1650m.

This equates to a share price of around £13 based on current number of shares in issue - let's allow for dilution and we get £11 as a reasonable valuation.


That is the market pricing in $1 billion of peak sales.

So, how likely is a share price of £40 - £80 ? That would imply peak sales of $4 - $8 bn and 200 - 400k patients. It's just not a credible number.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 12:25

I believe the nap only came out in a newsletter today. But obviously the article would have been written a few days ago. The earlier post was implying the article writer and editorial team at scsw would have known and put money on at the pre-release stage.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 11:51

A tip that is considered to be a racing certainty, that is, almost completely certain to be true, is also called a nap and tipsters in newspapers will tend to indicate the "nap".

[qazwsxedc69] 06/1/2018 11:49

Forgive my ignorance, but what is 'Nap' that people have been referring to?Could someone clarify please - when did this tip come out from SCSW? Someone below said a few days ago (in which case it hasn't done much to influence the SP) but some others have said the impact will be felt on Monday?Thanks in advance.

[hitsha1] 06/1/2018 11:15

You probably see £5 next week, with tip on SCSW, and so near to p3 results, or may be higher, peeps are saying if good result then £40-£80, good luck

[che7win] 06/1/2018 11:09

SCSW also don't make these tips lightly, they will have talked to the management at length and must be suitably impressed to make this call.

[che7win] 06/1/2018 11:04

Ham, Once this is a nap, it sticks, many will want in on any dip.Think we will go over £2 soon and upward projectory continues IMHO.

[happyman7] 06/1/2018 10:53

Well, thanks miavoce. I think we can look forward to a good start on Monday, possibly getting near to the £2 mark, after the nap tip from SCSW, there being an initial mark up and pi's wanting to buy, adding to the pressure. And of course, anyone who sold on Friday, like perhaps the poster, bookbroker, will be cursing their misfortune in bad timing and looking to buy back in again. And thereafter, it depends .... It is an intereting share to know what is the best way to play things.

PS bookbroker does not think much of our boy in Thailand after looking at his posting history.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 10:49

Cool. Will look forward to Monday opening :)
The thing is any scsw nap tip rises may usually fade but with the short timeframes of 2 weeks until end of trial and then unknown timeframe after then for results, it would be hard maybe to time any sell and buy back?

[miavoce] 06/1/2018 10:38

I've subscribed to SCSW for many years. I won't repeat what SCSW says about IMM as that wouldn't be fair to subscribers, but I will say:-

- it doesn't say anything that hasn't been said many times on this board
- it is very unusual for SCSW to recommend a biotech
- it is even more unusual for SCSW to recommend a company that is in the pre-sales phase
- SCSW NAP's typically rise strongly on the Monday following publication, although the rises aren't necessarily sustained thereafter

[flavio_monteiro] 06/1/2018 10:33

Nice Deramp bookbroker.....have you got your limit buy order in as I don’t believe it will be filled..

[bookbroker] 06/1/2018 10:31

Yeah, they are about six months behind the curve, and that is why it fell 4% yesterday, peeps knew about this article a few days ago!

[che7win] 06/1/2018 10:27

Bookbroken,
It would be ahead of itself at £5, not at this silly valuation.

Do you realise you have made that comment on the weekend when one of the most influential and successful tip sheets in the country have just made this their tip of the year?!?

[bookbroker] 06/1/2018 10:20

I could see this running back to £1.50, it’s had a great run to get this far, Lupozor is heading in the right direction, along with other potentially exciting discoveries within the IMM. stable. Concerns me that small investors seem to be getting ahead of themselves with valuations here, there is no such thing as a sure-fire certainty in this world, let alone breakthroughs in drug discoverery. Keep calm and carry on ramping, at your own peril! Good luck for 2018! - T. McCarffy.