Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 03/1/2018 10:48

"It is the 63% success rate that I would encourage folk not to lose sight of in this piece.."It is more than a little patronising to suggest folks are not aware of this.Do you have any new information or insight, otherwise the self evident points become about as drab as the ramptastic equivalent.

[money maker1] 03/1/2018 10:45

Its true that IMM hold the double ACE of two high value platforms plus high value drugs including Lupuzor. Once you are talking multi-billion sales, the valuations rightly become very high.

[fidra] 03/1/2018 10:42

only Yesterday he was saying not posting till the results!

[top tips] 03/1/2018 10:37

"The valuation needs to be anchored more closely to 2019 sales than where it will be in eight years time."

More tripe!!!!

Only a few days ago njb was saying platforms were what big pharmas wanted rather than sales, and Gilhead took over Kite for $11 billion in 2017 to get their platform not the predicted $billion+ sales within 5 years. OK then, IMM have two high value platforms that could generate high value revenues (someone today said $5 billion+ pa). IMM must be looking very attractive to big pharmas right now.

Additionally, Benlysta is predicted to have Yr 2020 sales of $1 billion pa. Lupuzor could take all that if it is better, safer and cheaper to make, and grow the market even more.

[top tips] 03/1/2018 10:33

Like hottingup said ages ago, Lupuzor probably has a 95% chance of reaching the market. All it need to do is beat Benlysta.

[top tips] 03/1/2018 10:31

njb talking tripe as usual.

[money maker1] 03/1/2018 10:30

stealth wealth
3 Jan '18 - 07:24 - 8465 of 8498

If Imm have a drug that can generate multi billion pound sales the value of the company is a multiple of those sales, and even more if they have an entire platform applicable to multiple diseases.


money maker1
3 Jan '18 - 07:44 - 8466 of 8498 Edit

IMM have two platforms. Gilhead just paid over $11 billion to get Kite's platform.

[money maker1] 03/1/2018 10:29

englishlongbow
3 Jan '18 - 09:11 - 8484 of 8497

$2 billion sales is worth $14 billion market capitalisation at least.


englishlongbow
3 Jan '18 - 09:14 - 8485 of 8497

They could be looking at $5 billion+ sales from the whole lupuzor P140 platform.

[herschel k] 03/1/2018 10:22

njb673 Jan '18 - 09:55 - 8490 of 8492
0 1 0
HK

Thanks - I stand corrected.

So a 63% chance of being worth an estimated £8.79 and a 37% chance of being not worth much at all.

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njb,

but all Fincap have done is take the historical (Cephalon) milestone payment that had been agreed before IMM took back all of the rights to Lupuzor, when they didn't have Phase III results or FDA fast track status.

A very lazy valuation methodology IMO.

Particularly when their target of £8.79 would value IMM at just over £1bn, yet in the sentence prior to that Fincap state "Blockbuster status (sales >$1bn) could be achieved within 8 years".

Doesn't add up, does it.........no-one with half an ounce of sense would give a potential value of a company at just over £1bn based on potential sales per annum of £666m.

H

[top tips] 03/1/2018 10:22

topped up. thanks.

[hottingup] 03/1/2018 10:20

Shares Magazine
Small caps poised for big news in 2018:
We look at 19 stocks primed to deliver major events in their career
21/12/2017



"Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators."


This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.


Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman)
14/3/2017
"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.

[ny boy] 03/1/2018 10:05

Oh no, I can’t cope with this 2.5p drop this morning!

[hamhamham1] 03/1/2018 09:56

HerschelK. Hobsons Choice :)
I am going to let them ride as the upside could be very high.
I know the downside, if the results are not great but may require more testing then I am happy to sit on them. At that point I know some have said the share value will go to near zero but I think a big pharma would still think £200-250m buy out(150-188p per share) is still a low price to acquire all the work to date, current patents and any future CNRS pipeline drugs. And might even get a bargain bucket bidding war, so up it a bit maybe?

[njb67] 03/1/2018 09:55

HK

Thanks - I stand corrected.

So a 63% chance of being worth an estimated £8.79 and a 37% chance of being not worth much at all.

[hottingup] 03/1/2018 09:49

Hamham I think there is potential for a takeover to give £40+ and possibly £80+ as others have said, so no objection from me. A good outlicensing deal on Phase 3 results would presumably better the original Cephalon deal and its £535 payments and high royalties. Thing is IMM will get good terms on either route, if the Phase 3 results improve on Benlysta.

[herschel k] 03/1/2018 09:43

I see a lot of references to the Fincap valuation and the fact that they are way below estimates from posters on here.

However, the people referencing the Fincap valuation should really give it the context it deserves:

"Immupharma (IMM) is a drug discovery company whose lead product Lupuzor, is in Phase III trials for the treatment of Systemic Lupus Erythematous (SLE). Previous IIb trial demonstrated both efficacy and safety through novel immune system modulation that offers benefits to the only approved treatment, a monoclonal antibody (mAb) called Benlysta with £400m annual sales. Phase III pivotal study readout (n=200) expected Q1-18 (finnCap est. approval of 63%) follows on from Lupuzor being given Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) status by the FDA with existing global patent protection until 2032. Blockbuster status (sales >$1bn) could be achieved within 8 years and historical licence deal (Cephalon, 2009) suggestive of licence/partner agreement potential. Unusual upside potential from binary readout leads us to initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and 237p price target (increasing 87% on +ve Phase III, which excludes the value of potential upfront (c.50p) and milestone payments that could amount to c£500m or 386p per share)."

It QUITE CLEARLY states that the initial 237p target goes up 87% on a positive Phase III outcome, and EXCLUDES the value of potential upfront payment (50p) and milestone payments (386p).

So, yes their INITIAL target is 237p.
But their target soon after positive Phase III results is (237p x 1.87) + 50p + 386p = £8.79 per share.

H

[husbod] 03/1/2018 09:41

So the big decision on or around the 16th is whether to lock in profits or at least top slice or just go for it all guns blazing.I suppose the sensible course would be to take profits and be ready to buy back albeit at a higher, probably much higher, price if phase 3 results are as expected.Anyone feeling sensible?

[hamhamham1] 03/1/2018 09:34

I would prefer a buy out to partnering or licencing.
This would put a nice instant surprise fixed price to the shares.
Saves the grief of having to try and call the top.

[englishlongbow] 03/1/2018 09:14

They could be looking at $5 billion+ sales from the whole lupuzor P140 platform.

[englishlongbow] 03/1/2018 09:11

$2 billion sales is worth $14 billion market capitalisation at least.

[ny boy] 03/1/2018 09:11

If it’s anything over £40 a share I will keep travelling, so I dont have to experience cold temperatures or early sunsets.