Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[happyman7] 04/1/2018 22:08

I see that our recent new shareholder of 12,000 share is thinking why a big pharma has not taken over IMM, i am no expert, but perhaps a) with relatively few shares in issue, it would be mighty difficult for someone to pick up enough shares to make a bid and b)probably no CEO of a big pharma is going to commit fully without 100% percent knowledge of forthcoming results, otherwise his job would be on the plate, just a thought.

[njb67] 04/1/2018 21:51

Dav

I think that it is exactly the way to play this. If it is positive, it will go up a lot, if not, then down and a long way.

I am not a fan of spread betting, I prefer to own stock outright, but for this type of situation, with guaranteed stops, I think it could be the best approach.

[njb67] 04/1/2018 21:46

Long, I am not a regulatory expert, so not able to shed any light on why they have gone down this route. Not aware that there is one on this thread, it would though be good to explore this more with folk who know this side of the business.

On your second post, I would view this as standard company speak. Given the expense and time it takes to get medicines to market, a company will take every step possible to get there as quickly as possible. Exclusive use of a patent is time limited, so the quicker you get to market the sooner and the longer you have the market to yourself. This is simply good project management and planning, I would personally not read much into this.

[davr0s] 04/1/2018 21:45

Raised my guaranteed stops - other than that not giving it much thought - you won't get any complicated analysis or predictions from me. Focusing on other new opportunities. If the news is positive here I win big and negative I win small. It's all a probability and numbers game in the end. Rinse and repeat

[l0ngterm] 04/1/2018 21:41

Combined with the below updates. I struggle to see why not?"Work is now underway on regulatory dossiers to support submissions to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA)."Robert Zimmer, Immupharma's chief scientific officer said: "We are delighted with the progress of the Lupuzor Phase III trial and are looking forward with confidence and planning for a successful outcome for the study."We are keen to ensure that there are no delays in submission to enable us to fully exploit our 'fast track' status, previously granted by the FDA, so that the company's package will be reviewed within 6 months of submission."The manufacturing process will be part of these submissions, the company said in a statement.https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/184575

[l0ngterm] 04/1/2018 21:33

I have struggled with why two x 200 trials. Other than no surrogate end points for earlier approval. It only make sense if the fda are keen to progress drugs that address lupus. Which based upon the fda lupus videos seems to be the case.Otherwise why? But we'll know soon as you say

[njb67] 04/1/2018 21:05

Not sure on that long.

If the FDA were happy enough with the Ph2 data, then could they not approve based on this alone? By asking for additional studies, I would have thought that they are looking for further data before judging the risk/benefit profile.

If this is little more than a rubber stamping exercise, then it would de-risk IMM significantly.

Two things do not quite sit well with this being the case imo. If the Ph3 study was effectively a done deal, then I would expect the share price to be much higher than it is and closer to some of the more sensible estimates. I would also have expected IMM to have been bought out by now as why would big pharma wait around to pay a much higher share price if the lupus approval is in the bag..

I also recall that FinnCap assigned only a two thirds probability that the Ph3 would lead to an FDA approval, so still a significant risk that this does not deliver.

We will all soon know.

GLA

[englishlongbow] 04/1/2018 20:57

Njb has apparently bought over 12,000 shares so he must be pretty confident as well. He also recently pointed out Gilhead were prepared to pay $11 billion to get Kite's platform not necessarily their revenues. Nice then to know IMM has two platforms and seven drugs, which could generate very high revenues if another pharma were ever interested. Anyway, get an early night njb because you have to go to work tomorrow.

[l0ngterm] 04/1/2018 20:56

Fda could of stated two trials, to provide the company an avenue for early approval via fast track, if the 1st trial results are solid.

[englishlongbow] 04/1/2018 20:44

I am 100% confident lupuzor will get FDA approval. That's my view.

[englishlongbow] 04/1/2018 20:39

I would say the Phase III lupuzor results will probably be successful.

[top tips] 04/1/2018 20:29

Njb no one here has said the Phase 3 lupuzor results are a guaranteed outcome but have said quite clearly their valuations are based on a Phase 3 success. That should be obvious because they are certainly not based on a Phase 3 failure. Some have also said they think it will succeed and given reasons which no one has managed to counter including you. hottingup uses the phrase that he thinks it will 'get to market' and money maker talks about multiple indications. On balance the evidence so far plus the SPA supports hottingup's and others view. You in contrast are a self important wind bag. Step back for a moment and look at yourself. Just ask yourself why you are still having to go to work for a living instead of having become financially independent years ago like the rest of us.

[njb67] 04/1/2018 20:08

Sorry long, not sure I follow the point(s) you are trying to make. What am I missing?

[l0ngterm] 04/1/2018 19:41

I agree with that one waterloo. But the below would be roughly the business process so a lot could be going on in advance. NDA signed and agreed with potential suitors.Electronic Deal room setup to share data and due diligence between parties ( possible CNRS, imm, and acquiring company) possible multiple partners so multiple rooms.Due diligence:Publish all previous results and findings.Release existing data and respond to further details requested by partners.Including scientific data/previous results. Legal documentation ( CNRS and imm contracts etc) Patent informationManufacturing details and patents Repeat this for all drugs in pipeline if a purchasing the whole entity. Possible acquiring company may wish to repeat prior lab tests, or engage development team. Imm: may well or most likely will setup its own deal room. For internal discussions on market size, recent publications. Responses to queries, and discuss tactics in negotiations. This willl be a centralised room where data can be shared to other deal rooms. All this could well be ongoing just now with partners prior to results and is easily setup online.

[lukead] 04/1/2018 19:12

njb67 - 02 Jan 2018 - 20:36:51 - 8444 of 8640

OK, one last post as you raise an important question and deserve an answer

.............................

I may post again once the result are released, this will be determine where the share price goes, up (which I hope) but possibly down too.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


And so the question has to be asked, why are you posting, when you clearly said you would not?

PS This is a rhetorical question, i really am not seeking a reply and would appreciate if you did not. My deduction from you is, "can not be trusted" I will not commemt about you in the future and unlike you i will keep my word.

[hamhamham1] 04/1/2018 19:08

my guess is thursday 15th feb.
8 weeks after last dose.

[njb67] 04/1/2018 19:01

Doh! My bad. It would need to be published before potential suitors can scrutinise as part of any due diligence process.

My understanding is that it can take a few weeks post database lockdown to conduct analyses, internal control processes and make announcement. Would be surprised if these are out in mid Jan. We will know soon enough.

[ihavenoclue] 04/1/2018 18:51

njb67
4 Jan '18 - 18:32 - 8635 of 8636
0 0 0
Should have added, we also do not know if there is an agreement in place to share the results with potential suitors prior to these made public.

====================

An agreement that would be to allow insider trading ? Errrrr ....

[113mike] 04/1/2018 18:48

ok thanks WL01!

[waterloo01] 04/1/2018 18:46

That would be against market rules as all companies have to release price sensitive information with 24hrs in most cases. That's reinforced by the recent market reforms MIFID.

113mike, you are referring to batches they are producing to go alongside any potential application. The trial results will be earlier. Anytime from late January

[njb67] 04/1/2018 18:32

Should have added, we also do not know if there is an agreement in place to share the results with potential suitors prior to these made public.