Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 05/1/2018 11:28

Like watching paint dry today, consolidation repeating itself on each eventual leg higher.

Right the time I get back to blighty in the spring I reckon these willl be a lot higher than 175p, if very high, I won’t bother coming back for a few years.

[top tips] 05/1/2018 10:53

"P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well."

(Vadim Alexandre [Northland Capital] IMM Presentation, 4/7/2017)


So we could be looking at a takeover to get the whole platform and it won't be cheap.

[englishlongbow] 05/1/2018 10:40

1) Lupuzor produced the best ever efficacy and safety for a Phase 2b lupus drug (easily beating Benlysta) and feedback so far from Phase 3 suggests ongoing good safety (unlike Benlysta).

2) Lupuzor is also faster acting, cheaper to make and sell and has a higher profit margin than Benlysta.

3) Feedback from people who have taken Lupuzor has been amazing, e.g. Barbie Manchester and Melanie Regnaud. Barbie Manchester said she tried several Lupus drugs and for her Lupuzor was the best, and when she was taking it it was as if she did not have lupus.

4) Lupuzor targets the exact optimal point in the immune cellular chain to get a good result, unlike Benlysta.

"P140 peptide takes action further upstream in the immune response. It specifically shuts down so-called CD4 T-cells before they can aggravate the B-cells that cause Lupus." (IMM's website)

5) Lupuzor is a selective immuno-modulator, rather than a general immuno-suppressant like Benlysta, so Lupuzor has a key advantage and will automatically produce better efficacy and safety.

"This targeted approach marks a paradigm shift in treating autoimmune disease. Instead of shutting down otherwise healthy immune responses the T-cells are suppressed leaving the immune system modified but intact."(IMM's website)

6) They have perfected a way to extend the active life of the drug in the bloodstream.

7) Lupuzor has performed well preclinical in several other indications, supporting wider efficacy in multiple high value indications, so giving it multiple "bites at the cherry".

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Jan 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

8) IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

9) Lupuzor has a the 'gold standard' SPA and Fast Track status from the US FDA, putting it in an exceptionally strong regulatory position and guaranteeing approval within 6 months if it does OK, and market launch in 2018.

10) IMM raised sufficient cash in early 2017 to last to the end of 2018, allowing them to negotiate a Lupuzor deal or takeover of the company from a position of financial strength.

Basically Lupuzor is more efficaceous, safer, faster acting, and cheaper to make and sell than Benlysta, the platform is applicable to multiple high value indications, it will get to market to in 2018, they have a long and broad patent, a strong regulatory position, and sufficient cash to see them through a Lupuzor deal or takeover and market launch.

[englishlongbow] 05/1/2018 10:40

1) Lupuzor produced the best ever efficacy and safety for a Phase 2b lupus drug (easily beating Benlysta) and feedback so far from Phase 3 suggests ongoing good safety (unlike Benlysta).

2) Lupuzor is also faster acting, cheaper to make and sell and has a higher profit margin than Benlysta.

3) Feedback from people who have taken Lupuzor has been amazing, e.g. Barbie Manchester and Melanie Regnaud. Barbie Manchester said she tried several Lupus drugs and for her Lupuzor was the best, and when she was taking it it was as if she did not have lupus.

4) Lupuzor targets the exact optimal point in the immune cellular chain to get a good result, unlike Benlysta.

"P140 peptide takes action further upstream in the immune response. It specifically shuts down so-called CD4 T-cells before they can aggravate the B-cells that cause Lupus." (IMM's website)

5) Lupuzor is a selective immuno-modulator, rather than a general immuno-suppressant like Benlysta, so Lupuzor has a key advantage and will automatically produce better efficacy and safety.

"This targeted approach marks a paradigm shift in treating autoimmune disease. Instead of shutting down otherwise healthy immune responses the T-cells are suppressed leaving the immune system modified but intact."(IMM's website)

6) They have perfected a way to extend the active life of the drug in the bloodstream.

7) Lupuzor has performed well preclinical in several other indications, supporting wider efficacy in multiple high value indications, so giving it multiple "bites at the cherry".

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Jan 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

8) IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

9) Lupuzor has a the 'gold standard' SPA and Fast Track status from the US FDA, putting it in an exceptionally strong regulatory position and guaranteeing approval within 6 months if it does OK, and market launch in 2018.

10) IMM raised sufficient cash in early 2017 to last to the end of 2018, allowing them to negotiate a Lupuzor deal or takeover of the company from a position of financial strength.

Basically Lupuzor is more efficaceous, safer, faster acting, and cheaper to make and sell than Benlysta, the platform is applicable to multiple high value indications, it will get to market to in 2018, they have a long and broad patent, a strong regulatory position, and sufficient cash to see them through a Lupuzor deal or takeover and market launch.

[plain sailing] 05/1/2018 10:34

Could be a big pharma is prepared to $10 billion but due diligence for that amount requires them to wait for the Phase 3 results. If they were spending their own money they might buy it now, but its different with companies that are accountable to shareholders.

[cockerspaniel] 05/1/2018 10:19

njb67

You raised the question of why big pharma has not acquired Immupharma and what that means for the Phase III trials.

I don't think it means anything, unless the management had tried unsuccessfully to sell the company (which they have not).

There are number of practial reasons why it would be difficult for a drug company to acquire Immupharma at this stage.

1 Any acquiror would have to do an enormous amount of research on Lupizor (or any other drug in development) before acquiring it. For comparison, a licensing deal takes around a year.

2 They could not do so without the cooperation of the management.

3 Immupharma has discussed licensing Lupizor with many drug companies over the years. These companies will have signed NDAs and (I am guessing, but strongly suspect) will have signed legal agreements not to make an unsolicited bid for the company.


4 So, if I am right, the only possible acquirors would be companies that have no prior relationship with Immupharma.

So, I don't think an acquisition would be at all likely, unless the management solicited it.

[aussieb3] 05/1/2018 10:14

152 u having a laugh ,unless we had bad news

[hottingup] 05/1/2018 10:13

Vadim Alexandre (Northland Capital)
IMM Presentation
4/7/2017

34 min 45 sec:


"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20k per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient per year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals...you could expect an upfront payment to dwarf the market capitalisation of the company...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."

Q&A
Q: What value do analysts apply to Nucant and Urelix?

A: "Zero, because...the valution for Lupus (Lupuzor) is so high, so its almost pointless to talk about it...If they were to be seperated in a sum of parts, they do have value but the lead asset is worth so much more... But you are right, the Urelix platform is very interesting a company like Novo would be very interested in that. Nucant...very good data...if it were to be valued standalone, would be worth a substantial amount of the currrent market capitalisation".

[ny boy] 05/1/2018 10:12

Oh no, this pull back is worrying me, right getting ready for beach sun downers, hew it’s been a hard day today 28c clear, no wind.

Left a buy order in @ 152p just in case short termers panic sell

[longshanks] 05/1/2018 10:05

I see: "could", "could", "could" and "potentially will" (ie "could").Snake oil talk if you ask me

[aussieb3] 05/1/2018 10:05

Always a small drop before another rise up . Don't understand why people would sell now other then to top slice. as the real gains are in next few months

[hottingup] 05/1/2018 09:56

Vadim Alexandre (Northland Capital)
IMM Presentation
4/7/2017

34 min 45 sec:


"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20 per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals...you could expect an upfront payment to dwarf the market capitalisation of the company...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."

Q&A
Q: What value do analysts apply to Nucant and Urelix?

A: "Zero, because...the valution for Lupus (Lupuzor) is so high, so its almost pointless to talk about it...If they were to be seperated in a sum of parts, they do have value but the lead asset is worth so much more... But you are right, the Urelix platform is very interesting a company like Novo would be very interested in that. Nucant...very good data...if it were to be valued standalone, would be worth a substantial amount of the currrent market capitalisation".

[hamhamham1] 05/1/2018 09:51

HerschalK. People are suggesting £40 on ph3 results daty:
money maker - £60 to £100 on successful Phase 3.
kensington court - If the results are positive IMM shares could easily open at£40 on the day given the size of the market and number of autoimmune diseases Lupuzor
englishlongbow - Could be £40+ in a few weeks. This will be worth a fortune.
plus more - life's too short to search through though ;)

[dontshoutatonce] 05/1/2018 09:48

I believe Professor Sylviane Muller was going to be asked to London this month for what I understood to be a celebration or at the least, a 'thank you' for her work. Thoughts?

[longshanks] 05/1/2018 09:39

The argument presented is that because company A paid X for company B it follows that company C will pay X+ for IMM because IMM is the same if not better than company B.Such syllogism is illogical.Time has moved on, GSK may/probably regrets paying so much; at the time there was no drug available for the treatment of lupus - now there could be two with others arriving in the near future. The market for Benlysta just never turned up as expected. Is that because the drug was too expensive or just not effective enough. These questions and the position that we are in of a far more conservative business era mean a strong likelihood that until we have the NDA approved, there will be little if any likelihood of a company making a bid for IMM.Furthermore, it is very unlikely that the company can be sold. The company's largest shareholder wants a statue larger than Kim Il Sungs to be elevated in Zurich to celebrate his achievements. He won't get that if he sells up.Sorry to break it to the glitterati adorning this B.B., but unfortunately this share will see steady, not immediate, appreciation towards their price goal.We may reach £40/share but it will take 15 years.

[herschel k] 05/1/2018 09:38

It won't reach 40 quid on results dayI don't think that's what people are suggesting either For me.....what happens in the 6 to 12 months after the results is critical.

[hamhamham1] 05/1/2018 09:03

Well in about 6 weeks we will have the results and we can look at the share price.
I would be over the moon with such high share price outcomes on that day but personally I think it will be a lot less. As I think W1ndjammer once said here "First world problems, eh"

[kensingtoncourt] 05/1/2018 08:55

I don't have any problem valuing IMM well above £40 its so obvious.

[kensingtoncourt] 05/1/2018 08:53

Its just common sense that a platform that can treat 12 diseases is worth a lot more than any of the single drugs within that platform. It was said in the summer presentation that other pharmas will not just be looking at lupuzor for lupus but also the other diseases it could treat, and thus by implication adjusting their terms accordingly, i.e. placing an even higher value on it.

[hamhamham1] 05/1/2018 08:39

Yep cool.
I just get frustrated with some posters 'It's my way or the hi-way' approach.
Discussion boards are not just there for debating which mega high level of share price is correct?

[money maker1] 05/1/2018 08:38

GSK paid $3.6 billion to get HGSi's 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta, effectively valuing 100% at $7 billion, which equates to around £40 a share for IMM, and IMM's lupuzor looks better, safer, faster acting and cheaper to make than Benlysta, and is part of a platform that could be used in 12+ high value indications, whereas Benlysta was only for lupus.

[happyman7] 05/1/2018 08:36

ham, i thnk you have to be a paid up member to 'thumbs down' a post and runt is just a free.
njb67, i'm not sure that we agree on too much, but i am right, i think, that we both want to see our investment go up and it is obviously dependant on good results. Why not lets leave it at that. GL