Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 06/1/2018 22:13

NjbMarket cap post positive result = £650m+ (assuming £5+ share price).Annualised running costs circa £3m.Required dilution to meet annualised running cost = sub 0.5%.You are not making a very persuasive point, and it isn't very difficult to see why.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 22:11

spawny

It is different, in this scenario you control time. You determine when the auction ends forcing them to make their move.

Contrast this with a listing where there is no time limit, a buy it now price instead. If you are really need some money, then you will be inclined to accept a lower offer than you would have hoped.

Have a google on negotiating strategy and the role of time as a variable. Worth a read.

[runtoma] 06/1/2018 22:05

Medical Rep njb67 you have worked through all possible scenarios multiple times. Give us a break and slither off somewhere else

[spawny100] 06/1/2018 22:04

It does work. If several people on Ebay want what I have then it does not matter if they know whether I'm skint or have several million in the bank; it's an irrelevancy. If these trials are successful there will be more than one major pharma interested imo.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 22:00

wig

In commercial negotiations, time is one of the most powerful levers you can exert. In this case a suitor can take their time knowing that IMM will run out of money and as time goes on may be more prepared to lower their asks to cut the deal. The better the data, the more companies will hopefully be at the table, and this leverage is reduced or eliminated.

spawny
with respect, your example does not work. Potential suitors will know the IMM funding position, it is public knowledge. On ebay, no one knows your personal circumstances.

[spawny100] 06/1/2018 21:51

Nj if I have something in my possession that is very desirable and that a lot of people want and I put it on Ebay for auction then my financial position is of no consequence to the bidders....

[wigwammer] 06/1/2018 21:48

Njb I don't think we are saying the same thing.If the trial is successful IMM will have ample access to capital. Potential suitors will not be able to use IMM's capital position to their advantage.As a fellow shareholder I hope this prospect is of comfort to you - do not let it worry yourself or others any further.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 21:40

wig

I think we are saying much the same thing.

IMM only have cash for 2018, as per their latest accounts.
They need to do a deal in 2018 to licence/sell etc.
Else, they will need to fund raise.

Clearly good results will help with the deal, the counterparties will though know about the IMM funding position and will try and use this to their advantage. If we have multiple bidders then the leverage against IMM can be reduced or hopefully eliminated.

Will try to be more enlightening in future...

[njb67] 06/1/2018 21:35

thx spawny

I get it, I know how my posts can come across. I can only assure you my intent is good.

[wigwammer] 06/1/2018 21:35

Njb - this is what you posted:"IMM need to do a deal before the end of the year, which weakens their bargaining power."No. If the trial is successful they will have ample access to capital and their bargaining power will be in no way compromised.You now want to change the point to "if the trial is inconclusive they will have limited access to capital". Well of course - if the trial result is not positive they will have difficulty and this will likely be a poor investment.But - with all due respect - that is not a very enlightening point.

[beachbodyready] 06/1/2018 21:29

i'd get out now if I were you. the management are spivs. and we all know it. this has the classic feel of too good to be true. and it is...

back to the beach for me!

[njb67] 06/1/2018 21:26

just trying to provide some perspective spawny. nothing more nor less. is what these boards are designed for.

bought, still hold and will do so for the ride, hopefully onwards and upwards.

GL

[spawny100] 06/1/2018 21:11

I was indeed wrong nj; the IMM tip in SCSW seems to have given you increased energy to talk their prospects down.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 21:09

wig

Let’s assume that the Ph3 studies are inconclusive, that IMM need to conduct a second Ph3 study and as a result they do not get FDA approval in 2018.

Where do you think the share price will be once this is announced? IMM have traded around 50p through much of last year, before the increased interest and run up in share price toward the back of 2017. I would imagine a fair amount of this is hot PI money chasing the next big thing. If this scenario plays out (and I truly hope it does not) then IMM will be trading sub-50p imo.

They would also have no money to cover the second phase 3 trial nor salaries for the next couple of years that it would take. This is an emergency fund raise as they will otherwise be insolvent and unable to continue to do business.

So, with a MCAP closer to £65m (50p), how much of the company will they need to give away to raise the necessary £10-15m needed? With serious question marks over Lup and the whole p140 platform and no money to develop the rest of the assets?

We all also know that markets punish bad news, often over-reacting, 50p could be an optimistic outcome if Phase 3 results disappoint. Any future fund raise sub 50p share price would be even more dilutive to existing shareholders. If they can get it away at all.

I share this not because I am trying to talk IMM down or have an agenda but to instead show what could happen if the Ph3 study does not deliver. As an investor, you need to work through all the scenarios and risks rather than accept that the best case outcome is inevitable.

I genuinely hope the Ph3 results come good and that we all do well on IMM. It is though not certain.

[metis20] 06/1/2018 20:09

phase 2b - 149 patients enrolled - The patients received 200μg of the P140/Lupuzor peptide or a placebo as a subcutaneous injection once every four weeks for 24 weeks.

phase 3 - 200 patients enrolled - The patients received 200μg of the P140/Lupuzor peptide or a placebo as a subcutaneous injection once every four weeks for 48 weeks.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 20:05

So it's just if the ph3 can match (or improve on) the ph2b results.
Some will say it should be easy and some will say it will be hard.
And that's why us investors don't leave our money in the bank earning 0.1% interest and decide to place our money in various thought through investments.

[metis20] 06/1/2018 19:55

ham..it looks as if IMM would agree with you -

see

for -

“Moreover, on the basis of Lupuzor™’s Phase IIb trial data, the drug demonstrated a higher response rate and fewer side-effects to Benlysta’s Phase III trial. As such, Lupuzor™ appears to be safer and more effective and is consequently likely to see higher market uptake if approved.”

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 19:43

I think the results will be better than Benlysta.
Historically Benylsta may prove to be a bad bench mark.
But if better results and near no side affects then its all good.

[wigwammer] 06/1/2018 19:39

"Emergency fund raising.."Njb - a 5% fund raising at the current market cap would raise sufficient cash to keep them going for 2-3 years.Your point is nonsensical - stop trying so hard.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 19:32

IMM need to do a deal before the end of the year, which weakens their bargaining power. No deal would lead to an emergency fund raising, which is never good for shareholders.

That said if the results are better than Benlysta, then they will have multiple suitors, which strengthen their hand considerably.

My prediction is that they will go for a deal on Lup alone, then reinvest the monies in developing the other indications. An outright sale is possible but I think less likely.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 19:28

And that is why on good results this company will be bought out.

[njb67] 06/1/2018 19:20

ham, you can not compare a public utility company with a small biotech company, the business models are totally different.

Have a look back at some of my earlier posts on what is needed to bring a medicine to market. They do not simply sell themselves. You need to engage with national and regional pricing organisations (who decide if a medicine can be used by the system and at what price) as well as working with those who treat patients, such as hospital consultants and their teams, GPs, nurses etc. You need to have teams to answer medical enquiries from the clinical community, to track adverse events (which need to be reported to the regulators). Management, back office functions etc. You need a manufacturing plant and a distribution network. You can outsource of lot of these activities, you can not though avoid the costs.

The big pharma cos employ 50,000-100,000 folk worldwide, even mid sized pharma companies can have 20,000 employees around the globe. It is one thing having a new medicine, you then need a lot of people to turn that promise into sales. How efficiently you can do this will determine your profitability and market valuation.

[hamhamham1] 06/1/2018 19:16

Tell that to the Winvlevoss twins.
That's just my view.
I like the science.
Why treat the symptoms rather than the cause?
This hasn't been tried before in this particular field.

[cockerspaniel] 06/1/2018 19:10

ham - #8783 are for real? Immupharma are not a disruptor - they are a few guys in an office, who have managed to license a drug from the CNRS on very advantageous terms.