It's a long hold for me still, but it looks a long way back up to £3 again. But simplistically , there is going to be a long term demand for the products and no particular reason why other competitors have an advantage, so will keep ticking along unless someone makes a bad management decision .Or conversely a good one . |
Ibstock plc issued a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2022 this morning. The Group enjoyed resilient performance in final quarter of the year driven by a continued focus on price and margin management and good operational execution. Full year revenues are expected to increase by 25% to approximately £510 million, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be modestly ahead of previous expectations. Looking forward, higher interest rates, inflation and heightened market uncertainty are expected to impact the demand picture in 2023, but management remain confident in their ability to deliver against ambitious medium-term financial targets. Valuation is a little rich for the sector, the share price also lacks near term momentum. There is no particular rush to buy here, but IBST is well worth monitoring for the medium run...
...from WealthOracle |
As an example, I believe the market is pretty much ignoring the huge acquisition that Norcros made last year, so not factoring that in means the balance sheet may look worse and earnings projections look less exciting. |
I gave up using anything other than reported and RNS-ed results long ago, GH. Everything else is subject to distortions and downright incompetence. Also you get to see the reasons for the earnings, adjustments (for good or ill), debt, pension issues, balance sheet adjustments, distortions from recent disposals or acquisitions, etc. (apart from the corporate activity a lot of it doesn't change much from year to year so it is only a big job in the first year). It takes more time, but it is the only way to get accuarate reported information (which mostly is either correct or massaged in a pretty predictable way). |
I looked under the financials within ADVFN where they have Eps of 7.8 and pe of 21I didn't cross check it reported numbers Stupid me, for some reason I thought it might be vaguely accurate. So thanks for pointing that out |
An historic PE of 21??? How do you arrive at that?
Adjusted EPS for the first HALF of this year was 11.3p. Adjusted EPS for the still COVID-impacted 2021 was 13.9p, and 2019 (the closest pre-COVID comparable since when we have had 15% inflation) was 18.3p. The likely forward PE is under 10 even without the growth I expect from long term housing shortage and new production capacity and efficiencies. |
It has historic p/e of 21 so probably reasonably full value as it is I would guess |
Very happy on the trading update to have added already in the 150s here, but also not motivated to go overweight right now as fully invested here; though I would add on any price weakening.
Not sure why the market is valuing Ibstock under £2 at the moment. With the buybacks, a decent dividend, the new facilities (£35m worth this year), a solid balance sheet and reasonable outlook both short and long term, what exactly is the market discounting?? |
407k buy after close of trading yesterday posted this morning . Personally, I think we have another good year ahead of us with Ibstock. |
I note reference to significant cost inflation but I was interested to note nothing specific on energy costs. I guess they feel they have nothing to add over Q3 TU.
This TU has made me more comfortable with my current holding but not sure if it is motivating me to buy more. |
Excellent trading update today |
Good results.
Interested to read this in Bellway 's Prelims announcement today quote
There continue to be extended lead times and shortages of certain products, such as roof tiles and clay bricks.
Unquote |
On the bright side, those buybacks are getting cheaper... |
Looks like 150 or even below again! |
Presumably this is down to the withdrawal of mortgages |
SOMEONE has to own those houses, and people need them to live in. House prices will have to take the hit if the current prices are unaffordable.
I don't personally think price changes is going to stop housebuilding or extensions, just lower the margins on the newbuilds and the value of building land. |
fair comment edmund. The fear though will be that no one will be able to afford a new house |
Fundamentals not changed, but importing bricks just got even more expensive, so home-made brick prices are not going to be an issue IMO. Gas prices currently coming down, and forward energy contracts already doing their job.
Today I felt like adding to my holding as we approach the fear driven lows around 150p of March 2022 and March 2020. |
And that was when bricks were £300/1000 not the current £600-800/1000. There was still a housing shortage back then too. |
There is currently a supply shortage but for how long? Today I cancelled an order with Ibstock for 10 loads due to their impending 28.5% increase. These will be replaced by imports. It feels as though other industries are sharing the pain whereas the big brick boys are passing it all on. What happens when, and it will, supply is no longer the issue? It's not so long ago Forterra needed farmers fields to store excess Desford stock. |
hxxps://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/07/28/forterra-brick-prices-rise-30-in-six-months/
No doubt further price rises to come there too. |
What rival producers? There is a supply shortage, only two serious rivals for some of their products, and imports are significantly more expensive because of the transport costs (not even factoring in the weak pound). Forterra and Wienerberger will have very similar price pressures on them. |
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