Ibstock Share Discussion Threads

[mastiffish] 03/7/2020 21:28

We as a country are buying bricks from Spain Germany Ireland because we can not make enough to keep up with demand.this has being going on for the last 2 years ,ibstock can't meet demand Evey site that wants Thier bricks has a 26 week waiting list same goes for all clay bricks for that matter any many are turning to hand made and concrete bricks due to then being more accessible,ibstock needs to ramp up production.Once the covid situation is at ease ibstock should be solid and growing substantially for the next decade.

[edmundshaw] 03/6/2020 22:08

Thanks for that smicker.

[smicker] 03/6/2020 21:20

Some comment https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/02/1591102551000/Markets-Now---Wednesday-3rd-June-2020/

[erogenous jones] 03/6/2020 07:58

Muted statement. No financial guidence from company. Shares to drift until new information released IMO

[erogenous jones] 30/5/2020 09:52

In common with you, I too have a small business, but I have retained all my employees despite losing 80% of our orders. We have sufficient capital, cash and retained profits to last a year with no income and maintain expenditure. This is a prudent choice discovered from necessity, a lesson learned many years ago. Perhaps it appalls you as much as I, that the colosal companies that have relied on handouts of loans, grants and furloughed staff seem to be ill equippd to last for even a month without revenue? I hope you are correct in that any downturn is short lived. Time will provide answer. Meanwhile, I am 94% invested and am keeping powder dry for opportunities as they arise. Trying to time the market is a fools game, but time spent finding tomorrows winners is not wasted. From being 39% down (equivalent to 17 years salary) when markets fell to their low, things have recovered and I am down just 3.8%. Investments made for elder son in the week after this low have allowed him to bank profits of over 42% in a series of bargains and a further 6% could be realised if everything else cashed in. Included in the 6% figure is a loss of 50% in HUR! We have very different criteria......mine is a mature portfolio built over the last 40 years structured for capital growth at medium/high risk with a further 30 year horizon. His target is capital growth with a 3 year horizon and, including cash, comprises just 6 holdings. Ibstock featured for a short time though was cashed in in favour of EZJ. Dignity is on the radar for short term recovery, not because it is a wellrun company, but because it potentially fits this investment criteria. Any others to consider would be appreciated. Sorry to go off topic

[the runt] 29/5/2020 21:36

@erogenous Jones That's a very interesting line of thought, and was certainly well worth reading. As a small business owner, who's had to put most of my staff on furlough, I certainly harbour uncertainty about the future. But I take a slightly different view - in spite of your very reasoned post - that after an economic wobble (to put it technically) lasting a few months, we will in fact see a very significant period of growth - much of that will be restructuring. Whilst some supply chains will be re-chained, so to speak, using more local suppliers, we will see something akin to a post-war boom. I think there will be a lot of construction going on - you may put it in the category of 'enterprise', but I think it will be parcelled with an emerging cultural re-framing of how we wish to live our lives in the future. Economies often do best after a shock to their system.

[erogenous jones] 29/5/2020 21:01

I own shares on my own account, but those that I encouraged my elder son to buy were sold last week to bank a small profit. So, that is my disclosure out of the way.... I am pretty sure about the immediate term prospects for Ibstock in that they will survive for the next 9 months. After that, just not too sure at all. And, what makes me be so bold on this? Well, it is pretty clear that if the UK is not in recession, then it faces a recession, the magnitude of which we have not experienced before. Yes, there will be bricks sold to complete the projects that have been started by builder, but that is all. You see, I rather envisage the next 6 months to give the illusion that all is well, but under the surface, companies are preparing themselves for high unemployment lasting a few years - perhaps even a decade. Basically, shutting down the world for 4 months staggered over a 6 month period will c cause the larger employers to simply shut lines down and return to a core competence. That will put millions (worldwide) out of work and those spill onto the medium, small and micro enterprise that make up the heirarchy of supply be it product or service into question. There are 3 basic reasons for property to be sold and bought; death, divorce and enterprise. Supply of bricks satisfies enterprise only. My hunch is for demise of a few, followed by a rationalisation of remaining house builders and the overall impact on ibstock will be a few bad debts plus reduction in turnover by a significant amount.... my stab in the dark here is between 30% and 50% reduction in turnover. I hope I am wrong, having chucked my "normal" buy unit into these in February and am currently under water on this holding.

[gswredland] 29/5/2020 18:58

I’d love 170 again!

[the runt] 29/5/2020 15:31

It's disappointing, but should pick up significantly towards the end of the year

[lord mandelbaum] 29/5/2020 15:31

Also don't understand the extent of the last few days' drop. IBST and FORT moved with the housebuilders (RDW, PSN, etc) during the early May run-up but seem to have lagged in this one. Don't think you can go far wrong in this sector - terrific buying opp IMO.

[smcni1968] 29/5/2020 14:18

why the 4.5% drop?

[scruff1] 18/5/2020 17:13

I bought in for the first time. Putting my trust in govt backed building boom. It worked in the 60's !!

[smcni1968] 18/5/2020 14:23

Starting 1/3 of the factories back up, plenty of bricks in stock for now

[nefabeta01] 15/5/2020 20:04

This should be one of the first to fly when the economy opens up. House builders are going back to work. Government 300K pa house building plans(1). A healthy Balance sheet. Low net debt. Circa 15% post tax profit and yet currently valued at less than its IPO of 5 years ago. I've also bought some more. 1 - https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2019-0147/CDP-2019-0147.pdf

[nigelbarker] 14/5/2020 11:08

just bought some more.

[edmundshaw] 12/5/2020 11:17

LGEN CEO interviewed this morning on https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000j0vt from 30:30 Legal and General have £1 trillion in assets. One of the big things the CEO sees after this COVID is that the UK needs to invest to reboot the economy, and housing is his number one suggestion (and L&G owns three housebuilders). On top of that, planning has never been so easy to obtain... Meanwile there is 60% upside here to reach recent highs...

[husbod] 01/5/2020 12:52

Hi EJI've been in Forterra for a while and have this on my watch list. Bricks are a basic necessity it's just a question of how many.Not sure I agree with you about house price falls. I've been around possibly even longer than you and have a professional interest in properties so have seen what has happened in a series of recessions. Basically when we were not such a crowded island house prices rose and fell with the general economy but now we've got several million more people the demand for housing is massive and this will continue to underpin prices imo.Only people who have to sell will drop their prices. Everyone else will simply stay put..Travis Perkins also looks interesting imo.

[panshanger1] 17/4/2020 15:09

Good call for the long term ?Had my walk around ( with mask )Canary Wharf today surprised how much action there was around the numerous building sites Not full on obviously but things moving Still a long road back IMO

[edmundshaw] 17/4/2020 13:37

Many thanks for that Smicker! What is nice is the roundup of Ibstock, Forterra (I als own), Breedon and Breedon only has about a 30% recovery potential to reach recent February highs, while I'd estimate Marshall perhaps 35%, Volution 40% or 45%. With Forterra that would be 60% and Ibstock some 75%... Why? Well the brickmakers are a bit small to be on the horizon of large fund managers... does that have something to do with it? IDK, but I am happy with my brickmakers! :))

[smicker] 16/4/2020 17:47

Gets a mention here https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/16/1587031430000/Markets-Now---Thursday-16th-April-2020/

[lefrene] 14/4/2020 17:09

Hello there EJ, I'm quite sure Ibstock won't loot the cash for private income and then just shut up shop! Good luck if you've managed to clip this one, but bricks don't feel like a good place to hang out for very long.

[erogenous jones] 14/4/2020 16:31

carpingrtis, rest assured that as there was a lot of nudging by me, I have agreed to underwrite his losses. He is 30% up thus far..... he made his first investment 2 days into the lockdown EDIT Hi lefrene - our paths cross again - I hope it will be rather more successful than the last time. So, to partially answer your question..... the demand for bricks will remain while there are buildings in partial build. Of the homes that have been "sold off plan", these will need to be completed as a priority. I agree that the demand for property will be low on the end of lockdown, there will be thousands of persons out of work and a very good chance that a couple of housebuilders will go bust. This investment for son is not expected to be long term and in all probability will have cashed in his stake if the price rises above 225p

[lefrene] 14/4/2020 16:28

I'm expecting a building slump unless HM Gov start building social housing on a huge scale. Mortgages are being tightened and apparently 1 in 9 householders are taking a 'mortgage holiday' expected to last 3 months. Plus the economy is expected to shrink by more than 30% this year. Where is the demand for bricks going to come from?

[carpingtris] 14/4/2020 16:20

Hope you gave him the caveat 'only invest what you can afford to lose'.. unless of course you'll underwrite it for him :) I've always said to my nephew if I've pointed him in a fund/stock direction that if it didn't work out I'll help with his losses, lol

[erogenous jones] 14/4/2020 16:02

I have persuaded my elder son to bung some cash at IBST in the expectation of recovery. Bargain went through a few moments ago