Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[sueyou1] 16/8/2013 10:03

Yep, that is why they are called HEDGE fund managers ;-)

[adventurous] 16/8/2013 10:00

"The very mention of the word Shorting should have you all very very scared."

Utter rubbish! All hedge fund managers do it.

[sueyou1] 16/8/2013 09:52

boondocks, if the shares are in their own fund or nominee accounts they can use them for shorting, nobody needs to lend them stock to do it. Alternatively they can short with CFD.

[boondocks] 16/8/2013 09:49

When the extremely corpulent Mr Simon Cawkwell, aka Evil Knievil shorted this stock some time ago (you can find out exactly when by looking at the chart and seeing when the last ever time 30p was seen) the share price went from about 30p dow to 5p bid before the closers bought it back up to 10p ish. The very mention of the word Shorting should have you all very very scared. 8p will seem like a fortune if a similar scenario plays out this time. It may even suit your friend Andrew Black. I wonder who has lent SVM the shares to allow them to short ?

[adventurous] 16/8/2013 07:50

It is normally the action of a hedge fund, when they are long, they often take a short position to de-risk, with the expectation that the share price will eventually climb back up.

Not so many will short naked, but I'm not sure about SVM

[sueyou1] 15/8/2013 21:40

adventurous, thanks for that ;-)

The only reason I would think of an asset manager going short on a penny stock was if they were offered a placing and wanted it cheaper. Maybe the drop is just an MM walk down to help their mates get cheaper stock in such a placing.

[adventurous] 15/8/2013 21:29

SVM Asset Management Ltd - appear to have resumed shorting:-

02.08.13 - 253k

Total in all shorted 3.6m

from:

[sueyou1] 15/8/2013 20:52

capricious, "But we haven't had any real selling"

Add these up:

02/08
300,000

05/08
1,000,000

06/08
250,000
285,000
4 x (circa)56,0000
100,000
2 x 300,000

07/08
250,000

12/08
500,000

13/08
2 x 100,000
200,000

[capricious] 15/8/2013 10:40

But we haven't had any real selling, there was one a while back of 1 million, in the scheme of things, pretty small. As a ratio there has been much more buying than selling. The price drops on the smallest sell, but makes no move on significant buying.

To a point the weakness is reflected by the slow going and the eventual debt raising measures. But that doesn't justify the drop so far in comparison to previous years and how much stronger the company is to those same years. It's either part of a long term plan to hoover up any sells that come through, or simple market dynamics, who knows.

[sueyou1] 14/8/2013 20:40

I guess Mr Black, being on the BoD and all that, would know if there was a distresses seller and how much stock was being dumped. He could just buy the stock and support the price, or he could wait for the seller to be squeezed out at lower and lower prices, then he could buy up all the loose stock at the cheapest price. That is what I would do.

[dirty75] 14/8/2013 11:40

good point. Why are they not coming in at this level? As you say the usual support around 9p. Seems cheap on face value. Volume traded is pretty poor for the last 6 months.

[boondocks] 14/8/2013 09:35

I wonder how Mr Black is feeling this morning. The last time these shares hit 8.5 bid they bounced to 13p bid in pretty quick time as if memory serves one of the new directors bought a couple of million shares for about 9p ? I wonder if the same will happen this time or whether they wait for 7.5p.

[capricious] 09/8/2013 10:48

Hi Alan,

I posted before but the oil recycling industry is now very competitive, companies are scrambling to put down plans to build refining capacity in the best location, i.e near ready feedstock supplies. Even for suppliers there are issues with profitability, each needing to scale up and finding the lowest cost recycling channels.


From my reading in the US there's a big shift towards consolidation, i.e suppliers and refiners creating joint ventures or through the buyout route. I don't know who approached who and if G&S wasn't already supplying Hydrodec, but I think in the longer term that this latest deal is of mutual interest, Hydrodec gains sorely needed funds to expand, guarantees future utilisation, whereas G&S gain a foothold into refining. I see no reason why they can't build on this relationship with further joint expansion.

I hope unlike the Japanese heads of agreement deal, there will be some form of penalty redress or other protection, if one side plays foul like Kobe

[alanrussell] 08/8/2013 20:24

Any views on this?
I had previous concerns about the slow takeup of capacity at Canton (post 2267 19-3-13). The recent RNS confirms that capacity is stuck at just over 70%, so why the talk of two additional trains and possible second US plant? It seems that G&S will be supplying much of the additional feedstock to justify the expansion. Presumably that means that they weren't doing so up to the joint deal. So G&S hold off supplying Canton, capacity doesn't grow, profitability in doubt, HYR end up doing a deal with G&S to get their feedstock. Now just who would have got the better part of that deal?

[alanrussell] 08/8/2013 08:27

No need for that K

[kendonagasaki] 07/8/2013 20:48

I'm sure you can do simple. As most big boys such as your self hide from this most basic form of communication??

[kendonagasaki] 07/8/2013 20:47

Capricious old chap.If you posted in simple terminology rather than swallowing a dictionary before post I feel one would have a better understanding of ones investment in this company.You see the more waffle will always equate to less understanding of what HYDRODEC actually do and where they are now IMO.Your posts and view points just seem to could the scenario and they don't really make any sense. More of a me me me look how clever I am approach? Leave the playground at the lass room and common sense shall prevail old bean!?

[capricious] 07/8/2013 15:45

This in part explains the margin compression

www.imakenews.com/lng/e_article002757173.cfm?x=b11,0,w

"Posted naphthenic prices had not undergone any revisions for almost eight months, and healthy market conditions, together with the most recent increases in crude oil prices, was the push producers needed to pursue a margin improvement."


So although orders for all that time have been strong, as evidence by Hydrodec's performance, the price didn't rise in line with costs.


Another interesting snippet

"Activity in the API Group III segment was said to be surprisingly steady, considering that summer is usually the time when requirements decline.

On the naphthenic front, suppliers also expect strong demand in coming weeks, with a couple of suppliers reporting sold-out conditions for pale 60 and transformer oil through August. There have also been export inquiries noted, but no fresh transactions were heard as concluded, possibly due to the gap between buying and selling indications."

[themariner] 07/8/2013 14:12

I too have been accumulating at sub 9p, having first invested at around 10p. I think the management will pull the company through and that this is an attractive, though risky, entry valuation, with decent upside. I hope to continue to accumulate in the coming months. The issues the company faces are surmountable and the top team are highly capable. I don't believe Mr Black wants to "take control on the cheap", he's a supporter with a keen eye for a calculated risk, like many people on this thread. He also happens to have lot of money!

[kendonagasaki] 07/8/2013 13:12

Well I just have acquired some stock not a large amount 5k worth today. I like the increase in stake from old Bertie Black and he seems happy to hold 20% plus. For its about the Japanese deal that will be emerging very soon.This share price is vastly undervalued at today's price and a great entry point as I see a year end finish at between 14-16p.

[capricious] 07/8/2013 11:47

To be fair I think the statement about the management is totally wrong. Even before Ian and the new appointees came on board, they already knew that a lot of effort was being wasted on simply treading water. This was almost entirely due to the period proceeding the recession. Once they successfully kept the company afloat, the board started looking towards the future.

Since the new board structure has taken the reigns, growth, with inevitable upfront costs, became the key driving force. Some promising deals have not come about, but others have, it's part and parcel of a company trying to push beyond their confines.

I stand to be corrected, but the increasing costs are being used to expand the business and the future revenue base, it's a good thing huh?

I am concerned about the margin compression, the efforts to improve efficiency are being somewhat lost by feedstock/resale fundamentals. I don't know enough about the relationship (lack of day to day data) between WTI/No2 Diesel oil/Superfine to understand what is happening, but the higher throughput in PCB and the increasing amounts supplied by G&S, will have a positive effect. The greater plant utilisation means a proportionately larger impact when (if) margins improve.


We don't have much in the immediate future, but I'm hoping they announce an industrial oils pilot program by Q4. Heck maybe even Lord Moynihan with his government connections, might be able to help get some real activity around a deal in the UK. Be nice if some of the announced milestones were in place before the fund raising is triggered. It's possible that this is the plan as they have mentioned a new marketing strategy for new investors.

[3dwd] 07/8/2013 10:15

i know this company quite well.. on one hand the BB who is a buyer ,,long and wrong ,,on the other hand there is the mngment who believe in the business but are failing to control costs .. then there is Aviva ,,they are supportive ,,but for how long?? .. then there is the CUL ,,, needs to be sorted by Nov next year , so a company with a great product but underfunded ,,and certain directors on the wrong salary ,, BB wont allow his own personal wealth to be destroyed .. that I know ,, I think we will see some very big changes soon.. IMHO

[sueyou1] 06/8/2013 21:41

Someone sold 1m at 8.25p so we do have a big seller by the looks of it. Maybe a big holder that is getting impatient. I doubt it is Mr B, more likely he will wait for the seller to be cleared/squeezed out, then Mr B will hoover up the cheap stock.

[capricious] 06/8/2013 21:25

Well at 6p, and his latest reduction in Betfair stake, which gave him around £18 million, is probably enough to purchase the remaining shares.

I'm not saying this is happening, just that your 6p and 18 million tickled my imagination. The amount would be higher and the risks would be great.

In all honesty, although 6p isn't far from here, there would be something pretty wrong if we did drop that far. We got to 5p in the worst of the recession and the company was close to going the way of the doodo, there's no comparison.