Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[tongosti] 02/7/2013 09:41

we need to counterbalance to andrew black. hopefully an institutional investor will come in and start buying significantly.

[tr1] 02/7/2013 07:26

Yes his confident he can pick up the rest on the cheap!!

[euclid5] 01/7/2013 21:16

Mr Black has recently bought 1.9m shares at nearly 10p each - he must be very confident indeed

[tongosti] 01/7/2013 15:17

yep, should have considered a career in fortune telling!

andrew black now holds 20% of the company + rights for a further 5% should he decide to convert his warrants. let's hope some other heavtyweight gets interested in HYR in due course now

[capricious] 01/7/2013 14:09

Well we were right about the movement on the share price

[tongosti] 30/6/2013 08:41

Also on the more positive side our new chairman has bought more than £300k worth of stock since he got appointed last year. Hopefully, his stake is a good omen for the rest of us ...

[capricious] 30/6/2013 07:50

I think the 10 year rule if I'm reading correctly, means the earliest time that the 30% rule can be applied, is 20/12/2014.

Hydrodec were listed on the aim in 21/12/2004.

[capricious] 28/6/2013 19:53

He has over 10 million warrants to redeem as he wishes. The board would obviously be aware that he is building up his stake since it's a legal requirement for a director to inform each and all dealings. In the past when funding options were limited, then offering large numbers of new warrants was a valid and necessary choice. I'd think anymore, when other sources of funding seem to be now available, might not be in the best interests* of the smaller holders.


*At this stage we are only speculating, we don't know Mr Blacks intentions, or the boards. To date he's made a valuable and indispensable contribution. At some point the board may have a discussion (rns) with shareholders, generally if rumours spread or it starts to impact the business.



In a recent rns, they were making a drive to attract other investors, so lets see.

[tongosti] 28/6/2013 19:00

I agres ...

[capricious] 28/6/2013 17:33

If it is a slow creeping offer, then it could go a long way to explain the tight control put on the sp, even considering things like culs etc.

[capricious] 28/6/2013 17:13

I had the number of treasury shares wrong, so making the previous text incorrect

[adventurous] 28/6/2013 17:02

The price offered has to be at the value of the company to those who hold the shares, otherwise it would be a failed bid.

[capricious] 28/6/2013 16:57

The 30 rule

Read somewhere that the price offered only has to be at the highest price in the last 12 months.

[capricious] 28/6/2013 16:40

It's either to protect his stake or as tongosti suggest, something else. The deal would still need to be done in the best interests of the company, so a full take over would require a significant amount.

I don't know what is in the articles of association/memorandum, so don't know what the clauses are in the event of an all encompassing offer.

[tongosti] 28/6/2013 16:35

The only thing concerning me is andrew black reaching his 30% quota after which he may take the company over on the very cheap ...

[capricious] 28/6/2013 16:35

The WTI Brent spread has continued to narrow all these months since last posting the trend, it stands at just over $5

[capricious] 28/6/2013 16:26

Well considering we've seen this pattern before... the share price drops to 'buyers' target price, price reached, purchase made, job done, it's a good bet.

[tongosti] 28/6/2013 16:22

you have one batch of 750k and 2x250k. about £125k worth of trades is def somebody with very big pockets!

[tongosti] 28/6/2013 16:20

andrew black i would think...

[capricious] 28/6/2013 16:12

Was that another top up?

[capricious] 26/6/2013 12:34

Latest lube report.

www.imakenews.com/lng/e_article002727757.cfm?x=b11,0,w


Fundamentals remain strong, with good pricing for pale 60 oils. I reiterate my previous comments, that 2013, unless something dramatic happens, will be a strong year, providing a good earn out for the US JV.


I don't particularly understand the share price level at the moment, although there are funding requirements, the company's balance sheet is strong. In comparison to the recessional years, it's excellent, and yet the share price is near the levels seen at that time. I imagine that funding for the Culs could be found, at no more detrimental cost than they already pay.

All I can think is that the share price still remains under tight control, to match future stake building by whatever institutional.

[sueyou1] 12/6/2013 21:17

capricious, I think it also depends how quickly HYR moves with the motor oils. Next year commercial start up would set the share price alight.

[capricious] 12/6/2013 12:24

Edison note is brief, but reiterates the strong steady progress.

Positive EDITDA in 2014, but operating/final profit positive by 2015.


Fair value is 12.5p, rising to 16.4p. With a second US plant and pilot in Austalia, with clear plans for full capacity plant and partner, I'm conservatively expecting the share price north of 50p.

A previous note by another research arm loosely mentioned 84p. No timeframe was given, but can't see it before 5-10 year range.

Of course, if the share base is significantly enlarged, then we might not see anything like the same.

[capricious] 12/6/2013 12:18

I think, apart from the obvious support a large investor brings, his stake probably protects the smaller holder.

Lower dilution options are more likely to be pushed, it's also likely that any takeover bids would need to be backed by Mr Black. I hope it prevents any early attempts to take private or similar.