Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[boondocks] 06/8/2013 17:50

At what price per share could he raise new money at ? A 30% discount to the market ?ie 6p (maybe if you are lucky) when his own average must be at least 12p ? His highly rated (highly salaried) team might be very happy to be gifted shares in a private company in return for their old shares and loyalty. We will see.

[themariner] 06/8/2013 17:29

I think this is somewhat far fetched. Companies are on public capital markets to use them to raise capital and to provide a market for their shares. I know Mr Black is extremely wealthy but I can't see him attempting "to go it alone" with Hydrodec, and I can't see the (highly rated) management going along with that either.

[boondocks] 06/8/2013 17:13

Could it be possible that our white knight, mr black, has decided that as buying 20% or more of the equity in this money pit has failed to boost the share price, he may as well let the price sink to 1 or 2p then buy the rest of the company on the cheap and simply use his own considerable funds to support it through to profitability ? And save the considerable costs of maintaining the Listed status into the bargain. Having held the shares myself for many years I reached this conclusion recently but wished I had done so sooner. I hope for the sake of all you fine earnest chaps that I am wrong, but as they say on that TV program Im OUT

[sueyou1] 05/8/2013 21:02

Indicates either a big overhang, a big seller at higher prices, or a significant weight of shorting on the share price

[capricious] 05/8/2013 16:41

So we get drops of more than 1p on sell trades of no more than 1000, but unrelenting buys sees almost no movement... hmmmm

[pr100] 03/8/2013 10:20

Don't know where I got the "almost 50%" NAV drop from. Should have said almost 30%.

[capricious] 02/8/2013 14:43

Thanks pr100

[pr100] 02/8/2013 14:35

Hi capricious: good to see you still doing sterling work here.

Warrants are dilutive in that the issuing company must issue new shares for them when they are exercised.

Under Consolidated Condensed Statement of Financial Position: Net Assets = $21,576,000 vs $30,319,000 12 months ago.

Agree there are some bright spots - just not enough. Biggest worry for me is the new licensing strategy without demonstrable profits yet.

[capricious] 02/8/2013 10:43

Hi pr100,

I couldn't find the 50% drop in net assets?

Agree things aren't wonderful, with some serious balance sheet problems, but you can argue that we were in a much worse position a year ago so on a like for like basis, the share price should be a little higher. Anyway we are where we are, some cash injection is needed.

The measures to increase margins may only have started to filter through. I also think the level loading system (brought in when Ian joined) means you get more throughput, and less constraint on feedstock, but costs can be inevitably higher. PCB amounts looks encouraging, this will definitely reduce feedstock risk and healthier margins.

The guaranteed supply from G&S, if I read correctly will begin to flow in H2, and as the relationship grows so should the supply.

Depending on the success of the joint relationship, I see no reason that jointly they may look to expand, and therefore share costs. It still fits in with the owner operator of the tech.


Does anyone know that if Mr Black exercises his warrants the proceeds go to Hydrodec?

[pr100] 02/8/2013 09:52

For sure some investors have grown weary of the wait for profitability. And I still don't see how they can successfully license the process without being able to demonstrate profitability. With losses of $7m in H1, we're a country mile away - and we need to raise more cash.

Hydrodec has become too synonymous with non-delivery, e.g. of Japan JV, of Mexico feedstock, of profits, etc.

I'm still waiting for an explanation of the Kobe and Mexico debacles. It isn't good enough to say, without explanation, we're going to have to remain patient to access the Japanese market..

Meanwhile, revenues are barely up but prices are significantly down, net assets have fallen by almost 50% and borrowings are up to a whopping $22.5m, with little or no prospect of repaying any of it.

Progress is slow, debt is becoming alarming and I'm not at all surprised that the share price has fallen.

[capricious] 01/8/2013 17:01

Yes with the longer time putting the first two new trains into operation (summer 2014), and the rest by end 2015, effectively means we wont see us crossing the breakeven mark for at least that long.

The hope is further deals, pilot scheme etc to boost share price and in the very short term, the guaranteed feedstock from G&S

[the shuffle man] 01/8/2013 16:39

When are they going to make a profit. Even if t/o grows to 57.5m in 2015 they are still loss making. They must be carrying a lot of costs.

[capricious] 01/8/2013 15:35

The report from edison may have played a part. Although they have increased their base case valuation to 13.8p from 12.5, they are factoring a delay of 6 months for the new trains coming on line.

There is always the unknown around what they will do with fund raising to clear some of the risk around the balance sheet and the CULS.

[mortimer7] 01/8/2013 15:30

Agree, ridiculous drop. Really don't understand what is going on. Steady capitulation over recent months , yet on the face of it the investment case has improved.

[themariner] 01/8/2013 15:24

I have just topped up, and will be doing so again on Monday. This is a good entry price.

Patience will be required, possibly in spades, with this. Next major hurdles are balance sheet clear out, and ebitda profitability. Wait for these to happen and you will be too late, but that's not to say that getting in now is not still risky. I think one needs to invest in the coming 6-9 months.

[capricious] 01/8/2013 15:07

Drop in share price is ridiculous, but if there are people who want to sell at the levels being set, then that's where we are going. Can't help think that this is by design, either to collect shares for an investor, or simply keep the price low for a large purchase down the line.

[bam bam rubble] 01/8/2013 14:26

An interesting 'tell' 40s into this video just after the CEO says "platform for growth" suggesting something along the lines of 'I don't really believe what I'm saying there',

Where'd they go? Full vs Disappearing lips
When we are confident and content our lips are full, normal and in full view; not tightly compressed one against the other and concealed. But when we lack confidence our lips tend to disappear. When a poker player looks at his hole cards his lips may be full on seeing a pair then their lips disappear on the flop. The player has gone from comfort to discomfort with his lips telling his entire story. Watch people when they deliver news; If there's an immediate reduction from full lips to disappearing compressed lips, things are really bad.
hxxp://www.bluff.com/magazine/tells-of-the-mouth-7622/

[capricious] 01/8/2013 13:32

now that's just silly, sell @ 9.000003p

[mortimer7] 31/7/2013 09:26

An excellent and comprehensive update this morning. Good progress and a very solid statement of intent to achieve positive EBITDA for 2013 year end.
As yet there has been negligible market reaction in terms of trading. Let's hope the analysts presentation at 9.30am stimulates some +ve transactional activity.

[dirty75] 31/7/2013 08:59

Great work . Along with Eddison it could be benefical to hear a positive note from Peel Hunt.

[capricious] 31/7/2013 08:52

On the surface progress seems slow, there has been a lot of change that we don't see, that has already started to bare fruit. It's not been long that Hydrodec have actually started spending for growth, rather than simply survival.

At least now they have released a timeline (see website) so we can gauge progress against.

Be interesting to see if edisonresearch give an update, with more than just a small note.


It probably wont be until construction commences on new loading bays and real movement on a second US plant, that the share price will see some good gains.

[alanrussell] 31/7/2013 08:28

Painfully slow progress.

[capricious] 31/7/2013 07:57

Another great trading update, by the good people at Hydrodec, well done all.


The headline reading is brilliant, we should see a positive EBITDA, just in time for the earn out clause.


PCB processing is gathering pace.


No mention of mexico, which probably means that has been dropped with no carrier able to, or willing to take the cargo at reasonable.

[capricious] 30/7/2013 19:35

At this rate he's going to owns most of the aim. Be nice if his buying pushed the price up, but it has the completely opposite effect.

[vitamal] 30/7/2013 18:23

Mr black has put more money into litebulb llb Shares not doing too well there either