Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[capricious] 30/7/2013 16:03

Good post,

I suspect it probably wont be a rights issue in the end, it's expensive for the business, but they are positioning themselves to attract other large investors. If Mr Black isn't maneuvering to take control of the company, I expect he will be there to protect his stake, with further purchases at the very least.

He also loves horses, so his funds might not be just for Hydrodec, he could be to wanting to further his ambitions in that sphere.

He had a pretty stressful time when he saved the football club, now he is out of that, he must be planning his next moves.

[themariner] 30/7/2013 15:50

I have been following HYR for some time now and have become a fan of the business and the wider story. I'm now building a decent position, but quite slowly. When you can put aim stock's into isa's (next week) I may top up a fair bit more. A rights issue would be a further opportunity to top up and if there is a small discount, all the better. But I would have thought the board would wait and hope for some share price appreciation first, to avoid selling lots of shares at a historic low valuation. Debt could of course be sought but again, until the company reached profitability (v soon by the sounds of things), this might be expensive or hard to source unless of course it comes from a friend or supporter!

[capricious] 30/7/2013 15:24

Lol, yes seems like a great level, but with the Andrew Black question, the possibility of a large share offering or even rights issue, it has held me back for some while now.

[alanrussell] 30/7/2013 15:15

........... if so we should all jump in and buy a stack. Who's first?

[capricious] 30/7/2013 14:03

It drops on 1000 shares @ 9p, unless there's wind of the results being bad, which isn't being matched by share price activity, this looks like a nice slow walk down

[sueyou1] 29/7/2013 20:45

Maybe he will just loan the cash to HYR?

[capricious] 29/7/2013 20:00

By happy coincidence, the amount from the sale is very near the amount needed to push his stake past 30%.

He would then need at least another 30mil, probably nearer 40-50 to take the whole company.

[capricious] 29/7/2013 19:20

We will find out soon enough. It could be for other reasons, he spent a lot and did a lot for his football club before saying enough was enough. But I am concerned by the share price being kept at this level no matter the improvements.

Granted there are problems, but all things being equal, those problems have either reduced or stayed the same, but the health of the company and business model has improved greatly. You would expect if there wasn't a price control on the sp, for it to rise.

If the MM/broker wants to keep a lid on the share price there's not much we can do as it's not against any rules.

[mortimer7] 29/7/2013 18:48

RNS issued by Betfair at 6.11pm. Andrew Black has reduced his shareholding from
6.967 million to 4.715 million shares. A reduction of 2.252 million.
With Betfair shares worth around 900p recently, Mr Black now has an awfully large pot of cash. !!!!

[capricious] 29/7/2013 14:08

I wouldn't be surprised Sue, the window for purchases will undoubtedly be closed until results day, so we will see

[mortimer7] 29/7/2013 09:28

Interim results due for publication Wed 31st July.

[sueyou1] 28/7/2013 20:55

My eyes will be on AFC from tomorrow morning. Monday's RNS was accidentally put on their Website yesterday LOL!

[sueyou1] 27/7/2013 10:23

Being walked down for a placing to Mr Black?

[capricious] 25/7/2013 13:27

Price stable, then thur/fri, share price drops a bit... funny pattern

[capricious] 24/7/2013 13:26

Looking at the spot prices for No2 Ultra Low Sulhur Diesel oil, the trend has been slightly down from Oct/Nov 2012, but as posted above, the spot for WTI has been rising.

I could be mistaken, but that may mean better margins for Hydrodec, above and beyond current efficiency enacted by the business.

We're close to the H1 results, I'd really like to see (among other things) what PCB amounts have been processed, and what improvement (and future projections), if any, has been gained to overall margins.

[capricious] 19/7/2013 14:43

Spread 10c, for a brief time WTI exceeded Brent.

It's a major turnaround in pricing dynamics, I hope this can only prove a boost to Superfine's resale price point

[capricious] 18/7/2013 15:33

It seems Hydrodec's share price is impervious to good news... great US numbers, home building/manu is strong, which is good for power transmission requirements etc etc. A great year by all accounts and yet here we remain.

[capricious] 13/7/2013 08:43

Although not very large, the buying pattern matches previous occasions, i.e Friday buy with accumulation during the period before.

Could be Mr Black... if there are people willing (or unwilling) to sell at this level when the company is transformed, way and above where it was not too long after the collapse, then that's someone else's gain.


Spread $2

18/07
0.90c

[capricious] 10/7/2013 14:53

We saw the spread drop to around $2.4. WTI may eventually surpass Brent for the first time in a long while.

Is this good for Hydrodec, it's not a simple answer. Too high and there is a lot of competition for feedstock. With better supply channels and almost guaranteed amounts from their partnership deal, this might be mitigated. Additionally, high prices eventually knock growth, but if prices are moving due to demand then hopefully a balance is achieved.

With WTI becoming less landlocked, maybe an effect will be more stable pricing on the upside, and if Hydrodec move into Group II/III, this new supply/demand picture should provide a nice long term benefit.



This weeks Lube report - 60 pale oil continues healthy demand.

[capricious] 03/7/2013 12:19

WTI Brent spread, now around $3.8

[capricious] 03/7/2013 10:01

Latest lube report

www.imakenews.com/lng/e_article002733036.cfm?x=b11,0,w


Trading fundamentals remain good to strong.

[capricious] 03/7/2013 09:23

Completely agree with regards to the excellent team (including employees). To me a takeover doesn't mean the board has to be replaced, just means there is a new owner.

[adventurous] 02/7/2013 23:04

A takeover is not on the cards, who would Mr Black get to run it, er, perhaps the excellent team who are currently doing so.

[capricious] 02/7/2013 11:41

Hmmm, reading the takeover code again, (it's a little dry) the 10 year rule might only apply to companies (section other companies) that do not have their registered address in the UK/Channel Is/Isle Man.

The morale of the story, we need someone who is an expert in takeover and mergers, which Hydrodec has among their numbers, to discuss this very real and potentially significant situation.

www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code

[capricious] 02/7/2013 11:18

Although obviously I think Mr Black's contribution has been a life saver, picking (if) up the company on the cheap isn't the payment I would attribute to his efforts. Putting the different amounts aside, I and other holders have been supporting the company for much longer.

With effectively 25% of the share issue, I think it warrants an open discussion between the board and all shareholders.

What is their position on the possibility of such an event. Theoretically a board can either be hostile or cooperative to a takeover, and that includes a slow creeping offer.


In very crude terms, I'd say a buyer might need to come up with 50-60 million now, if I'm reading the 10 year rule correctly, then the earliest that the 30% rule can trigger a takeover, is Dec 2014. With all the potential milestones by that date, I'd think it would be impossible for the MM/broker to keep the share price at this level. If there isn't large dilution (i.e combination of funding to de-risk the balance sheet and the cul issue), 20p seems a reasonable target.

The final cost to a buyer would then be nearer 100 million. Even for Mr Black, who is a very successful man, with a recent quoted personal value at 120 million, that's a large chunk of his wealth.