Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[canetois] 10/3/2021 16:29

Not been an AT BUY since 11.26 hrs. Lets hope they pile them all in just before the UT.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 14:31

Bullish or bearish they are an equal opportunity down ticker ..very inclusive.

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 14:20

Hi Kooba

I think I've had a red downtick on every single post I've ever made. Welcome to the club.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 14:07

I worry now more their work is done.must be so proud.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:58

Starting to worry about the phantom down ticker..hope they're ok!

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:55

Doesn't tend to be much trade in these counters and a number of holders are presumably wall crossed.Still don't believe there is any equity holder engagement rather feels there will be a fait a compli presented to shareholders. If its too onerous might need to be voted down.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:50

Fair dos think i through in the towel on my last holding at a similar level .....you do give investing a David Attenborough kind of feel. Only after production update ,CPR and a restructuring will it be safe to swim in these waters i guess..but in the meantime its option money on these things having a positive outcome. Happy hunting.

[thegreatgeraldo] 10/3/2021 13:48

kooba
10 Mar '21 - 13:37 - 24471 of 24473
0 0 0
Understand about 4m through last week unsure this week but short term moved have 43-5 to 45-7 basis of 4m trade and now 48-51

....That would be $4 million? Which would be nudging a couple of percent of the bonds in issue. Surprised it's that busy

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 13:40

Kooba


Depends what you mean by recently.

I've previously posted a lot of detail about my prior buys/sells here, I'm not going to burden the board with a repetition, it's all there if you look.

From memory, (and without checking, so possibly wrong) I bought 15 times between 20 something and 59. I sold at an average of 18-19p (I think).

I exited when the steady accumulation of things that had gone wrong piled up to form an insurmountable barrier to success. That included the failure of the exploration/appraisal drilling in Lincoln and Warwick; the cooling off of Spirit and the announcement that they were to be sold off by their parent; the persistence of water cut problems at Lancaster which was incompatible with the perched water thesis; the decision not to connect a Lincoln well to the Aoka Mizu; the disappointing performance of the CFO; etc etc etc. All of that made it absolutely and abundantly clear that the reserves and resources previoously stated would have to be massively reduced. For this vigilant wildebeest it was more than enough. The lions were roaring, there was blood and guts on the ground and I scooted before the slaughter got into full spate. My continuing interest is simply because I would like to profit from this situation by completing the cycle of learning from experience/disaster. And in the IMHO unlikely situation that things do turn round I'm quite prepared to re-enter.

[ctc1] 10/3/2021 13:39

This was widely accepted from the beginning as an ultra big gamble. They always said it would be years before the EPS could demonstrate longevity in the wells. Some people were prepared to take the risk on and others were more circumspect. It is ironically more likely to succeed now, under more judicious governance and less irascible mgt, but at a much more modest scale.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:37

Understand about 4m through last week unsure this week but short term moved have 43-5 to 45-7 basis of 4m trade and now 48-51 so definitely on the ascendance. But the Ad Hoc group I'm sure would have had to wall cross to engage so who could the mystery buyer be?

[thegreatgeraldo] 10/3/2021 13:19

kooba
10 Mar '21 - 13:16 - 24469 of 24469
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For those interested i understand the CBs are trading over 50 and well bid

....Much trade going thru with the CBs? What's the volume like? Cheers.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:16

For those interested i understand the CBs are trading over 50 and well bid , as against 45 a week ago now I'm sure this is all down to the oil price and not that anything is leaking from the ongoing "engagement" with an Ad Hoc group of bondholders ..but to interpret such a move might indicate that someone thinks that production is steady and the bonds hold value. It could also mean that the buyers are confident they can benefit from restructuring either way suddenly keen on buying them up so might be a positive? To discuss.

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 13:04

GKP now those were the days. My personal trading was bought at 9p, sold at 12p, bought back at 9p and sold at 90p from recollection.

Certainly I sold too early which was something I didn't intent to get wrong with HUR when I like the good Doctor thought we had several billion barrels recoverable until there was water, water everywhere.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 13:03

Yeah thanks for that..if you noticed i am relatively new to the board from around 2.5p and if you read my early posts i was previously a holder that jumped some time ago but did take the top off several times on the way up having got involved in the low mis teens (early 2016) before funding and drilling when the company couldn't raise a smile having had a disastrous IPO. But really appreciate all the lessons and wise words its like being at school again !Where did you jump as i thought it was quite recently no judgement but what exactly prompted your exit stage right?

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 12:43

Kooba

the point is not who is better informed - we all have exactly the same information available to us

the point is who makes the best use of that information. the only tangible evidence to be considered is the buying and selling of the shares (and the bonds too).

Somebody who uses newly available information to change direction is providing proof of their ability to correct previously wrong analysis. Somebody who does not change direction - despite new information arising that provides a contra-indication - is providing proof of their inability/unwillingness to re-evaluate and re-orientate.

I'd make an analogy with a herd of wildebeest constantly exposed to predation by lions. Those who react and flee at the first hint of danger will surely do better than those who fail to react. When a herd completes a hazardous migration across grasslands and rivers full of predators they might be forgiven for thinking that good days are ahead and letting their guard down. If an attack comes at that precise moment, then those who react decisively will have a better chance than those who stick rigidly to the idea that they are in a good place and simply refuse to reconsider their previous beliefs.

I'd much rather be a sad loser who exited early rather than a brave and determined refusenik who ends up being somebody else's lunch.

[steve73] 10/3/2021 12:36

Well I sold all of mine at around 2.5p; most in Oct, and the last few in Jan... Definitely a case of hanging on for grim death.... but at least I got more back than I managed from XEL.

[comedy] 10/3/2021 12:25

ngms27
10 Mar '21 - 11:41 - 24458 of 24462
0 1 1
Actually when I worked for the Fool


oh dear...i remember like yesterday when gkp hit oil in kurdistan and price was 9p
the vitriolic posts from well known writer for the above organisation saying it was rubbish...the price then only went on to £1 and then £4...

doesnt inspire confidence.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 12:16

Don't disagree but making out people who sold after it was all going wrong but before the last crash are somehow better informed doesn't hold water either! Unlike the wells!

[comedy] 10/3/2021 12:13

lol tournesol...good post

only problem is if proven wrong and share price has already moved up...then having to pay more to get back in?
and if up significantly higher then human nature "of missing the bottom?"

not suggesting those who have sold...and also if proven wrong and will want to buy back in...are wanting share price not to move off base????


having cake and wanting to eat it comes to mind

[kooba] 10/3/2021 12:12

Director sales and purchases across the board can be a good measure for markets generally and often is a reliable signal to share price movement depends on the quantum but surprised at that result.Looking at outstanding options not sure there really is much there , no new options seem to have been granted and historic ones are with the fairies so not sure any options provide alignment. Don't think Mr Maris has any options may be wrong but cant see reference . Suppose reputation and getting paid are factors but that does not necessarily align with ordinary holders.

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 12:12

Kooba

...Cant believe you all didn’t get out at the top you’re all so clever ..but i guess you were positively biased then ?
As I've admitted many times before, I did not realise that 60p was the top. I thought that the majority of the risk had been mitigated by that time and I expected the share price to rise strongly from there to a multiple of that figure. Which is why my last share purchase was at 59p.

The fact that I did not anticipate the problems that subsequently arose and the precipitous share price collapse that ensued has absolutely no bearing on whether or not Hur is presently a good or bad investment. Like the Spanish Inquisition in Monty Python, nobody expected those things. If you think that people who made mistakes and called it wrong then should be excluded from discussions here, then you'll have a very quiet discussion. There might be a few geniuses here who bought in at 2p and are now sitting on a multi-bag investment, but they are few and far between.

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 12:03

NGMS

I remember a study conducted by somebody - the FT? the IC? Sharescope? Stockopedia? - that found that director purchases were correlated with subsequent over-performance by the share price but that director sales weren't.

Strangely enough they drew no conclusions about the correlation between an absence of director purchases and subsequent share price performance.

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 11:41

Actually when I worked for the Fool I did an analysis going back over a year or two on the affect of Director's purchasing meaningful shares.

The data I had showed they underperformed the market at that time!

Make of that what you will.