Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 11:36

Management might have only a small shareholding in terms of shares they have actually bought and paid for with their own money but they might well have share options both vested and pending as part of their incentive package and of course they also have their salary and benefits package. This does not mean that their interests are perfectly aligned with shareholders: options provide a heads I win, tails I do not lose kind of exposure; but their exposure is certainly not measured simply by the shares they have bought.

That being said there is no doubt that Director purchases provide strong indications of management confidence. Director sales are much less easy to interpret - there are all kinds of explanations. And the absence of Director purchases is even harder to interpret.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 10:49

Well when you owned lots and lots i suppose the company was run by a guy that did have a meaningful holding. I'm not sure that did a whole lot of good in terms of creating value.But why are the new guys etc not buying..well there is a thing called the close period and also there are times when directors are restricted by other inside information such as engaging in refinancing talks with their CB holders. In the case of Hurricane then both these situations are currently occurring. I imagine there are very few windows of "opportunity" for the directors to buy and quite likely none since they last purchased.The directors did buy disappointingly small holdings when they were able in Sept i think and it would be encouraging when they are clean if they purchased more but i am unaware of their personal financial situations.I would much prefer that senior management were more aligned to their shareholders yes.

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 10:39

Sure why do the BoD have so little skin in the game?

I had much more than that at one point.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 10:34

Ngms27..happy to answer if i know what you want me to comment on..why do they not have more stock?kooba, the BoD have ?60k skin in the game and they have all the data. What's your thoughts on that?

[kooba] 10/3/2021 09:39

Not getting the point there..please clarify.

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 09:37

tournesol, I concur and have stated that I'm open to re-entry upon a verifiable change of facts.

[tournesol] 10/3/2021 09:30

Hi Kooba

Someone who is a shareholder - like you I guess - has skin in the game and that has a direct influence on their objectivity. They want to be right, they want to make money and they certainly do not want to lose any money. There is a strong tendency for them to be over-optimistic in their assessment of the facts.

Someone who was a shareholder but became disillusioned and sold after losses - like both NGMS and me - and then watched the share price crater - has no skin in the game so they are insulated from that source of bias. They will however still want to be proved right (about their decision to sell) and will still feel some negativity from their own prior loss. There is a strong tendency for them to be over-pessimistic in their assessment of the facts. This may be exacerbated by their sense of having been right to exit before the most recent price weakness.

Some - like me and possibly NGMS, Steve73, TGG and a few others will have an interest/readiness to re-enter in the event that things change for the better. Those people may well express negativity up to the point when things change. However they retain an ability to change their minds when they see the facts change.

I would say that you should really be interested in the thinking of those people who are NOT shareholders but remain open to buying shares if the circumstances look propitious. A recovery in the share price needs an influx of share buyers. Anybody who a) knows a lot about the co, b) has already shown some savvy by dodging the last share price collapse and c) is prepared to think again should actually be appreciated/valued by shareholders as a potential source of the funds required to support the share price and help it recover.

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 09:02

kooba, the BoD have £60k skin in the game and they have all the data. What's your thoughts on that?

[kooba] 10/3/2021 08:06

The psychology of people who are no longer invested and how they now perceive the situation is indeed fascinating especially as they have no skin in the game..and those that remain are looking to be optimistic. Hardly an intellectual revelation..but as long as you're enjoying yourself thats the main thing.You'd love to see Hurricane succeed...no.

[kooba] 10/3/2021 07:59

Ngms27 might be of interest to you?https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/touchstone-exploration-a-busy-year-with-plenty-of-upside-interview/412966908

[ngms27] 10/3/2021 07:36

No he's not. I'd love to see HUR pull a billion barrels out of the hat.This is an intellectual play to me, following the psychology of bulletin boards, following the technical aspects of this business and how the BoD operate and align with equity who own the business.At the moment I can say it's been Comedy.

[ctc1] 10/3/2021 07:00

comedy: you are right

[comedy] 09/3/2021 22:07

Looks like non holders want Hur to fall over?
What angst lifes they must lead?
Are we in an oil boom phase?
Discuss

[kooba] 09/3/2021 21:37

But you are not suggesting where it is now you are suggesting an average over a period since last offload when we have been informed that at the very minimum production was at 12000+ for the first month, so to bring the average down as you suggest it must be far lower now. If it was now 11000bopd the average over the production period would be say 11500bopd. If average 10000 bopd as you imho'd then you are suggesting current production must be down to 8000bopd..is that what you are saying in your humble opinion ? Because I guess the board must be looking at a legal case if they're sitting on that information.

[sloppyg] 09/3/2021 21:27

Fully loaded opex is currently around $300k per day based on interims.

At current OP this is still commercial at 5-6k BOPD so there is still plenty of headroom.

[fat frank] 09/3/2021 21:18

ngms27: I am pinning my hopes on the Hannam note which stated production was 12,100 bopd and water cut of 25% and steady. Whilst I am fully aware that the water cut will only go one way I am hoping it will still be sub 30% at this stage.

Don't forget that the FPSO had choked back the well to 12,000 bopd and can handle a lot more water and I would estimate, that at current prices, the well will be commercial at levels considerably less than 10,000 per day.

With the precarious position that HUR is in I think that any large drop in production over the past few weeks would have been relayed to the market.

One thing for sure... we will find out soon.

[ngms27] 09/3/2021 20:41

Given the production profile seen to date I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest something along the lines of 10 to 11k bopd with water cut close to 30% now.

[kooba] 09/3/2021 18:06

Very interesting and leaves them hugely liquid as Hurricanes largest equity holder will they want a say in events now they have full pockets?

[btvitexcoinvxcryptowhale] 09/3/2021 18:04

Clov 13 per cent up today boomHold it long Blue chip US stock tip from BT

[kooba] 09/3/2021 17:53

But by saying they are averaging 11000 you are still intimating that there has been a very large fall in production since last offload and the stable production figure given mid Jan must be down to below 10000 bopd if your guess is close. I cannot imagine the board would not have been informed that such a change in the only price sensitive kpi would not have to be announced to the market as soon as it strayed well off previous release without delay. So i think i will wait and get some facts rather than pontificate on unknowns...bullish or bearish. In terms of BP contract though we are likely to be getting $63-64 as they can take prevalent price in first week of the delivery month.

[laserdisc] 09/3/2021 17:09

Kerogen Capital (Kerogen) is to sell Zennor Petroleum Limited (Zennor) to NEO Energy Upstream UK Limited (NEO) and HitecVision for a total consideration of up to USD625 million, including deferred and contingent payments.

Zennor’s portfolio of c.40 mmboe of net 2P reserves and more than 90 mmboe of net 2C resources is comprised of non-operated interests in the Mungo & Monan, Britannia, Bacchus and Cormorant East producing fields, a 100% operated interest in its flagship Finlaggan development project and interests in several near-field discoveries. Zennor’s net production is expected to exceed 20,000 boepd in Q4 2021, once Finlaggan is onstream.

[ngms27] 09/3/2021 16:51

kooba, show a list of previous offloads and sizes then we can compare notes...I don't believe there have been any nearly 500k barrels but I'd like to be shown I'm wrong.

There could of course have been maintenance, but wasn't the last offload after 35 days?

The last update stated: Oil sales: 5.1 MMbbls across 12 cargoes.

That's an average of 425k. Lets go with 450k then, that's about 11k per day but it's my personal opinion that the days of 12k bopd are over.

[kooba] 09/3/2021 16:44

So production has fallen massively since the stable 12100 in January and they're keeping it quiet then. If the offload averages 10000 as you suggest that would indicate we are currently at about 8000 bopd. I think the directors are being maybe overly cautious in their approach to the CB holders but you are suggesting they are happily in breech of SE rules on informing the market on price sensitive information without delay.Imho BS.

[leoneobull] 09/3/2021 16:08

IMHO! Biased.