Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 02/4/2021 12:46

Thanks for sharing your understanding on this .. I would be surprised if Lincoln was not included but I agree the revised CPR will be conservative ,maybe overly so, but we have seen what can happen when interpretation goes hugely the other way. Fingers crossed there are some positives from the ongoing production data.

[tournesol] 02/4/2021 10:04

PS

Hur's current reserves are limited and will be finished by year end 2022. In order for them to continmue production thereafter, they need more reserves to be on stream by that time. I can't see how that can be done anywhere except Lancaster.

[tournesol] 02/4/2021 09:36

Kooba

...The CPR is on all assets not just looking at Lancaster…

Yes, of course, but AIUI the only place that additional reserves could conceivably be booked is Lancaster.

My understanding is that to be classified as reserves (as opposed to resources) it is not enough that there is believed to be recoverable oil in the ground. It is also required that:-
1) the presence and extractability of the oil has been confirmed by appraisal drilling
2) there are firm plans to develop the resources - and that any technical or commercial obstacles to that have been surmounted.
3) development and production are planned to commence within a relatively short time.

There have been disgraceful situations in other E&P companies in the past which booked reserves without having done adequate appraisal and without having cleared away the technical and commercial obstacles and without having the financial wherewithal to proceed and without any firm plan to do any of the above. After years of carrying these dodgy reserves on their books, eventually reality sank in and the "reserves" were written off (never having existed in the first place". AIUI the rules were tightened after several of these scandals and now you can't get away with doing the same thing.

In Hur's asset portfolio the only place that any reserves can be booked is Lancaster because nowhere else has had enough appraisal drilling. At Lincoln they could perhaps try it on, but I'd think the commercial barriers test would fail because of Spirit's lack of support.

And even at Lancaster the level of understanding of the FB is clearly so limited that any claim to increase reserves there would be challenging in the extreme. Would you want to follow the path trod by Trice?

[laserdisc] 02/4/2021 09:07

Wireless telemetry basket containing measuring 1.4 m x 1.4 m and weighs 115 kg when submerged.
Locations
Hazard Location
160°07.139'N 003°54.975'W
Description
As part of the initial drilling operations in 2019, the wellhead assembly was fitted with a cap containing a transponder for the relaying of monitoring data from downhole gauges and a basket was placed on the seabed adjacent to the well containing associated wireless telemetry equipment.

It has now been observed that both the cap and the basket are no longer present.

PFML are on location conducting an ROV based visual inspection of the suspended Well 205/26b-14 in the Lincoln field west of Shetland. The Olympic Taurus arrived at the well location and deployed the ROV for inspection at the seabed. On inspection neither the cap or basket were present.

No instances of snagged fishing gear or other debris have been identified on the wellhead.

The risk is that trawled gear may snag on the basket and cause damage. It is expected that he basket is too light to trap the vessel and cause any significant threat. The cap is smaller, so there is a risk the nets may lift the cap to surface and cause a risk to personnel on the vessel. However, as the cap is now off the wellhead, it is likely to be sitting flush with the seabed and is unlikely to be picked up by gear working in this area, as it is typically designed to bounce over the top of seabed obstacles (like the many boulders in the area).

The vessel and ROV has conducted a search around the well, 250 m x 250 m grid with 20m line spacing, and not identified the objects.


PFML intend to go back to abandon the well this year, which would include an as left survey, so further efforts will be made then to locate and recover. If not found, no other action will be taken.

[laserdisc] 02/4/2021 08:08

looks like Grampian being being allocated a drydock for a repair this evg
02/04/2021 18:00:00 Estimate GRAMPIAN SOVEREIGN 9653484 2GHR4 Berth to Berth A & P Tees Frontage A & P Tees No 1 Drydock Inchcape Shipping Services (UK) Ltd Repairs

[leoneobull] 02/4/2021 07:11

Morning. Would be useful to know what options CA are thinking of taking here...Egm? Purchase bonds themselves ( recent spike?), change in FWP to Lincoln abandoning water injector?Thet are experienced activists so you would expect when they say they will take action they will be reviewing their options.

[philwalker36] 01/4/2021 22:29

Picking up a batch of Teesside 'Parmos' for the workers

[laserdisc] 01/4/2021 21:57

121264 02/04/2021 12:00:00 Estimate GRAMPIAN SOVEREIGN 9653484 2GHR4 Arrival to Berth Aberdeen A & P Tees Frontage Inchcape Shipping Services (UK) Ltd Lay-By

[dcarn] 01/4/2021 20:10

Something big that won't fit on an artic.

[laserdisc] 01/4/2021 19:00

Interesting our supply vessel left AM yesterday was bunkering this afternoon Aberdeen ,now left Aberdeen arriving TEES tomorrow mid day to collect ?

draft5
ABERDEEN (UTC +1)
2021-04-01 12:14 LT (UTC +1)
2021-04-01 18:27 LT (UTC +1) departure tees

[leoneobull] 01/4/2021 18:53

Fevertreeman , LSEFor what its worthToday 14:381. BOD totally and utterly out of their depth dealing with CA and the aggressive posse of bondholders. With Trice gone and a hopeless CFO this is hardly a surprise. Hence the heavy-lifting involved needed Evercore and Dentons - a sure sign that things are complex and tricky2. This is still a difficult call - we could end up being diluted to the wazoo given the bondholders are in driving seat -some glimmers of light only relating to POO3. Am convinced that Maris's Trappist monk routine is due to (a) finding out that the craven, useless Board had sold him a total pup (b) discovering that his room for manouvre was severely curtailed by the Board's panicked write down which triggered an aggreesive response from bondholders. Only explanation for last RNS abandoning further work ...4. It all hangs on CPR and Evercore earning their corn and agreeing a sensible arrangement with b/holders.5. I have no idea what intrinsic worth of this business is beyond fact that they could shut off operations, close down HQ, and just keep pumping 11000 barrels a day at $60 till the stuuff runs out.

[laserdisc] 01/4/2021 17:18

shipwatch : grampian dynasty back over lincoln area CLICK PAST TRACK

2016 and 2019 well results on Lincoln could provide some production upside in the future after all they have already purchased the flowlines etc they were continuing discussions with Spirit
Example
At N 60° 09' 49.58" - W 003° 53' 22.22"
2021-04-01 14:01 LT UTC
Underway

Stopped
At N 60° 09' 10.70" - W 003° 52' 31.18"
2021-04-01 14:28 LT UTC

Lincoln at Co ordinates 60°07.102’N 003°55.085ââ‚

ALERT Changed Course
New Course

[ngms27] 01/4/2021 16:54

Arh but that might change. The CPR might say they now have 30m barrels in Lancaster without additional investment.

Note it is April 1st ;)

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/4/2021 16:46

tournesol,

Indeed..& of course they have a further 2 months production data to take into account than the rest of us.

Anyone thinking this is all a bit dull should look at the going concern statement in last year's Finals.

[kooba] 01/4/2021 16:38

The CPR is on all assets not just looking at Lancaster .'Competent Person's Report covering all of its West of Shetland assets, which the Company anticipates will be released no later than the end of Q1 2021.'Why it's taking over six months when it's using existing data that Hurricane technical team has been reviewing internally for months before that who knows..do they normally take this long and why?

[jacks13] 01/4/2021 12:24

For a refresher read RNSs dated 18 Dec and 14 Jan

Lancaster Production Update

Since the Company's last update on 8 October 2020, the field has continued to produce from the 205/21a-6 well alone, except for a short period of testing the 205/21a-7z well to assist in the refinement of the reservoir simulation model.

The 205/21a-6 well is currently producing at c.12,300 bopd on artificial lift with a c.23% water cut. In early November 2020, the Company decided to limit production to approximately 12,000 bopd for reservoir evaluation and management purposes and aims to maintain production around this level in the near-term.

Since 1 September 2020, the field has averaged 12,500 bopd and as a result, the Company expects production for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 to be within the previously announced 12,000 - 14,000 bopd guidance range.

18 Dec

Lancaster EPS Production Update
 
Oil production in the fourth quarter of 2020 averaged 12,700 bopd, which was lower than the third quarter primarily due to a decision to limit production from the 205/21a-6 well to c.12,000 bopd in November 2020 for reservoir evaluation and management purposes.
 
Oil production for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 averaged 12,500 bopd, within the previously announced guidance range of 12,000 - 14,000 bopd.
 
The field continues to produce from the 205/21a-6 well alone, with current production of c.12,100 bopd on artificial lift and a water cut of c.25%.

14 Jan

[ngms27] 01/4/2021 12:03

telbap, yes the parameters are unique to these months because they are the first data points since they put Well 6 on ESP.

[fat frank] 01/4/2021 11:47

TGG: They'll probably blame the delay on Covid!!!

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/4/2021 11:42

The delay in the CPR is the intriguing point..... Can't see much to be gained by speculating on the reason for the delay, but don't recall it being that commom in the industry.......when basically they're looking at one asset...namely Lancaster - its probables & contingents...

.......Guess we'll see next weeek

[telbap] 01/4/2021 11:19

NGMS......morning......just dipping in here, are the parameters of this well production unique to these months?My point is, do we have a period of time when this well was producing under the current condition parameters so we can extrapolate a pattern. It is crazy to try and predict monthly increases/decreases based on such limited data....

[fat frank] 01/4/2021 11:10

From OGA

Nov 2020 Total Production 16.73k bbls with 29.2% Water Cut
Dec 2020 Total Production 15.98k bbls with 23.5% Water Cut
Jan 2021 Total Production 15.96k bbls with 24.6% Water Cut

Looks pretty well under control to me

Didn't HUR commission the Hamman report?? Hamman don't usually carry out studies without being paid handsomely

If it's still producing 11k per day at the end of the year, as Hamman predicted, with oil at $75 I would be happy

[ngms27] 01/4/2021 10:29

The data we have showed a water cut increase of 2% in a month. It's been 10 weeks since we were given a single data point given the OGA data is an average over the month.

Even a linear progression would suggest 30% now with production maintained at 12k bopd.

However two data points are insufficient to accurately predict, lets see what Tuesday brings but you can guess where I think water cut will be on production maintained at 12k. I suspect they have lowered production to around 11k if Hamman really are in the know.

[fat frank] 01/4/2021 10:22

The well is choked back and the FPSO can handle a lot more water.

On the face of it the data we have shows production and water cut is steady.

Surely any sudden drop in production would require an RNS?

[ngms27] 01/4/2021 10:07

So we have:
18/12/2020 12300 bopd 23% water cut
14/01/2021 12100 bopd 25% water cut

So the first month of op's on ESP saw water cut increase 2% and oil production down slightly

OGA data for January is an average of 12040 bopd 24.5% water cut which is consistent with HUR's 14/01/2021 RNS.

However water cut enjoys an R above one so it's growth will be exponential with constant oil production. The alternative is to keep water cut constant and reduce oil production exponentially.

I'm wondering whether the CPR has been held up due to actual recent production data?