Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[professor_az] 04/12/2020 15:44

Placing Monday. Looking bad

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/12/2020 15:41

That's very interesting....I'd have thought OPEC would get a few clues if/when the market was returning to balance by keeping half on eye on global inventory levels. So no need to suddenly turm on the taps....

& upping production by 7mmbblsd with an OP around $50 would maybe merit some time & effott....

[sji] 04/12/2020 15:27

ngms27: Good, so you too expect us to have another offload before year end! At least, we agree on something here!

Still, I cannot figure out from where you got your previous prediction/suggestion (or whatever you call it) that our last offload was to occur in mid-December when that would have meant more than 55 days after the previous offload! I'm convinced that then you got too excited with your negativity on HUR, more than your usual dose!!!

[bearnecessities33] 04/12/2020 15:26

Yes, that’s what I said 7.7 so far:

“Ahead of the meeting, the oil-producing cartel was widely expected to extend production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day through at least March.”

[bearnecessities33] 04/12/2020 15:18

Circa 7.7 million barrel per day in total, which takes into account some (not all) of the non compliance by member states, predominantly, Nigeria and Iraq.

[tcarter66208] 04/12/2020 15:16

Being held still. Bleurgh.

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/12/2020 15:11

bearnecessities33
4 Dec '20 - 14:35 - 21756 of 21759
0 6 0
Energy sector today is still the most undervalued sector in the stock market, crude supply is tightening

...How much supply, to the nearest million bbls/day, have OPEC & Russia removed from the market? Thanks.

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 15:07

My model suggests approximately 36 days since the last off take assuming a 400k off take so 11k bopd average over the period.

Remember this is a model not a prediction.

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 14:58

When was the last one? 26th November?

[sji] 04/12/2020 14:54

ngms27: so, according to your models, when we should expect our next offload please? TIA

[bearnecessities33] 04/12/2020 14:35

Energy sector today is still the most undervalued sector in the stock market, crude supply is tightening while demand is slowly but surely picking up with no viable alternatives to O&G around at present, HUR is decently producing with a brutally kitchen sinked share price that must surely only go upward from these nonsense extremely oversold levels IMHO.

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 14:35

sji, no only my ICL worse case model was wrong. Do the maths for my normal model and if anything it seems optimistic based on the last two offloads and empirical offload data.

[agnabeya] 04/12/2020 14:09

“Buy Oil..we’re going to be reliant on it yet”.....

[sji] 04/12/2020 14:04

Well then, your models were wrong predicting that HUR would have to wait for mid-December for their next offload when in fact it happened in MID-November. So, according to your models, HUR was producing much less than it actually was producing during October/November 2020!

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 14:01

I haven't made any predictions, just given what my models suggest.

[sji] 04/12/2020 13:59

Sorry, I didn't ask you about your models. I specifically asked you about your prediction that HUR was not producing enough to have an offload in November. We actually had one in MID-November. In fact, at the time, you told Laserdisc not to track the movement of tankers in mid-November because it was too early! Facts showed otherwise.

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 13:54

sji, I think you missed a post or two. I have two models, one borrowed from Imperial College London used to model Covid-19 deaths, that suggests they should now be producing very little and my own that reckons < 10k bopd by the end of January. Probably around 12k per day now if I'm being optimistic with regards my model. They are literally based on different assumptions for R given decline will be exponential in my opinion.

Remember a model isn't a prediction or investment advice.

[sji] 04/12/2020 13:50

Ngms27: Leonebull, rubbish and you know it. At least I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong.

But you told everyone that according to your model, our offload should have been in mid-December, right? Actually, it was mid-November and hopefully, we'll get another offload by end of year!

I didn't see you admitting that your model might be wrong!

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 11:18

Leonebull, rubbish and you know it. At least I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong.

[tomboyb] 04/12/2020 11:15

Lets hope so -

oil almost 50 bucks now -

[deltalo] 04/12/2020 10:06

Sellers being left behind and replaced with bigger buyers. This'll be over 10p soon.

[deltalo] 04/12/2020 09:51

Buy and hold.

[tcarter66208] 04/12/2020 09:48

Finally popped.