Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[raggedtp] 06/12/2020 18:46

Hell ngms27 and tournesol. Do you have any holdings in Hurricane currently? I notice you are not keen on multibagger 2022's valuation.

Thank you
A long-term and rather tired holder

[laserdisc] 06/12/2020 14:02

Shipwatch update Grampian Sovereign , supplies presently unloading at AM as i post ,so ongoing operations as norm.

Another webcam for those who follow at Scrabster the 2 Siem vessels in port came across from Norway on Thursday and are now in the Jubilee quay, plenty still going on in sector of oil and gas in general. Link is at hxxp://www.scrabster.co.uk/about-us/live-webcams/ its not a secure link
Scrabster has warehousing facilities understand vessels had a bundle tow, tug was around earlier yesterday

edit for grampian 4hrs for that offload and they are away
2020-12-06 13:29 LT (UTC)
2020-12-06 17:24 LT (UTC)

[leoneobull] 06/12/2020 13:50

Trust me Tournesol, I cant stand Donald Trump or his ilk.

[whitedukejay] 06/12/2020 13:21

Elvis is dead too BTW

[tournesol] 06/12/2020 13:01

Just found a very interesting article in Energy Voice, dated 24/11/20, but don't think it's been mentioned here before.

Full text is at:


It's about a geologist who used to work at the OGA who now says he was sceptical about HUR's plans and resource/reserve estimates when the EPS was first approved by the OGA. He says he tried to push back against HUR but the article says that Dr T complained about him and got him taken off the review team which seems to have led to his subsequent dismissal from the OGA.

As the article points out, under Trice, Hur put forward a thesis which has been subsequently discredited and the resources/reserves have been massively reduced.

Floats the idea that the OGA effectively endorsed Hur's figues which effectively led investors up the garden path.

If this were the US we'd now be in a class action against the OGA as well as Dr T.

[tournesol] 06/12/2020 12:43

evilb

your friends are people who tell you the truth

not people who encourage delusional and uncritical thinking

[evilblues] 06/12/2020 08:59

I see the school bullies are up early for a Sunday morning.

[tournesol] 06/12/2020 08:33

In fact it's so disingenuous that I can't imagine for one second that you are taken in by it. Surely you still have some tenuous hold on reality.

[tournesol] 06/12/2020 08:31

Leo You are using a technique favoured by Donald Trump. You find nonsense written by somebody else and repost/retweet it. Then you hide behind the fact that somebody else said it. If you really think that valuation is reasonable then own it. Don't hide behind it being written by somebody else.

[ngms27] 06/12/2020 08:10

Preposterous valuation based on nothing factual

[leoneobull] 06/12/2020 06:07

Post by multibagger 2022 on LSEDisclaimer. DYORHur ValuationsSat 14:39My previous forward valuations:- DCF valuation 24p to 30p, re my post 19 Oct @08.35- Asset valuation 26.8p, re my post dated 21 Oct @08.34Assumptions: successful WI (20k bopd), brent $52, Lincoln tie back for 30p valuationNow for a takeover valuation:- $459M on balance sheet- $80M cash at year end - $22M paid for long lead time Lincoln tie back and gas export items- Less $230M debt=$331M (£252M) on 1992m shares = 12.7pOr enterprise value £231m = 11.6p (was £1.5B Jun 2019........gulp)Can't see Kerogen and Crystal Amber accepting this, hence 50% ish premium for me I.e. 18 to 20p bid.Timing for bid, post forward works plan (de-risking) and prior to works starting (Spring 2021) I reckon I.e. before too much recovery in share price but after all the really hard work is done.Watch this space I guess, I think Hur could be attractive to mid tier company with strong balance sheet I.e. ability to refinance bond at low rate and fund exploration/remediation.Why 4p now, uncertainty, sentiment, shorts (unwinding now), high frequency trading (appears to be reducing now).Why gone from 2.5p to 4p (5p peak) recently, AM modification contract awarded by Bluewater to Global E&C on 2 Nov (source: Energy Voice) meaning plans progressing; removing some uncertainty.As always DYOR.

[soilderboy] 05/12/2020 12:30

Meant reading.

[htrocka2] 04/12/2020 19:33

Cheers laserdisc...got it.....I wonder how it will effect the share price Monday morning?


'..in discussions with “a number of parties” regarding a sale of its controlling stake in Spirit Energy Ltd.'

[laserdisc] 04/12/2020 19:01

re centrica some news on bloomberg regarding possible sale of its controlling stake in Spirit Energy Ltd. not got paid access so cannot post link

[leoneobull] 04/12/2020 18:59

Has anybody noticed the share price performs significantly better when HUR don't say anything. Just goes to show the mantra less is more works wonders, esp. for those non holders who don't own a share who have promised not to post.

[thegreatgeraldo] 04/12/2020 18:58

Leoneobull
4 Dec '20 - 18:41 - 21776 of 21776
0 0 1
Major Boy LSE

RE: Hurricane or Jadestone Energy04 Dec 2020 07:40
JSE have an operations update out this AM. I knew it was coming ;) Interesting to read and compare with HUR. They averaged 11,356 bbls/d from 1 January to end November and have net cash $82.6M. Their MCAP is £254M.

Of course , I'd caution I don't know what their debt is but point made

..That's just a rubbish "analysis" from the LSE poster..... might be worth as a starting point to compare EVs.....then the fact that JSE aren't solely reliant for survival on one producing well.....& see what level of reserves you get for your money from the HUR & JSE.....then factor in the impending corporate action @ JSE. As it happens, JSE issued a trading & ops update this morning....

[leoneobull] 04/12/2020 18:41

Major Boy LSE RE: Hurricane or Jadestone Energy04 Dec 2020 07:40JSE have an operations update out this AM. I knew it was coming ;) Interesting to read and compare with HUR. They averaged 11,356 bbls/d from 1 January to end November and have net cash $82.6M. Their MCAP is £254M.Of course , I'd caution I don't know what their debt is but point made

[leoneobull] 04/12/2020 18:20

And Brent is close to 50 or 25 per cent in excess of your model.

[leoneobull] 04/12/2020 18:17

I had distinct impression more shorters were closing today....big trades ...full ask paid etc.

[leoneobull] 04/12/2020 18:15

Dear all,Please not another fri night when NGMS triumphantly announces his "the WI won't work, if the WC is above 20% " theory. The WI was the only remediation measure mentioned on Sept11 but they said they were exploring a number of options. We all said at the time that we hoped there was more remediation than a WI alone ideally a side track or new producers. We couldn't say more than that as HUR gave no info...

[tournesol] 04/12/2020 17:44

Back2basics

Simplywallst does not do any actual investment analysis and does not even look at the fundamentals of this or any other co.

It's basically a robot site for generating content automatically. It typically uses things like P/E ratio and PEG ratio - which as it says are not germane in Hur's case. It references H's Price to Book ratio which even a moment's thought will tell you is meaningless for a co like Hur whose booked assets are not things that can readily be sold. Because its "analysis" is not based on any meaningful understanding of the operational realities at Hur, the limited life of its reserves and the EPS by which those reserves can be monetised, its model of H's future is fatally and massively flawed. Its conclusions are not worth the paper they are printed on.

In saying this I'm not singling out Simplywallst. There are many similar websites that pretend to offer stock analysis by providing machine generated pap which is of no use whatsoever. Any Google search for analysis of any share will come back with all manner of sites like this.

[laserdisc] 04/12/2020 16:17

large trade showing

16:10:56 4.19p 1,967,399 82.44k

[back2basics1] 04/12/2020 16:03

Interestingly, analysts at "Simply Wall Street" have just upped their HUR "Fair Value" now set at £0.13, while keeping the TLW "Fair Value" at £0.22 (relating links provided here below FYI), which represents massive upside potential here at present in the HUR SP, DYOR:

hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/aim-hur/hurricane-energy-shares#valuation

hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-tlw/tullow-oil-shares#valuation

[ngms27] 04/12/2020 15:47

sji, if you look back at my posts you will see that my main model suggests that @ $40 oil HUR will be loss making by the end of January. This is the model that 99% of my posts refer to. To date I don't have the latest two offloads to correlate how close to reality the model is tracking, but making the assumption that the two recent offloads have been close to historical average of 380k then it looks too optimistic!

Along side that I have a worse case model just like ICL's Covid-19 model was much more pessimistic and that suggested the much longer time between offloads.

Please remember these are models and not predictions though my personal opinion is likely more pessimistic than your own.