Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mhin2] 01/12/2020 18:38

I await the update and analysis... the sp, I presume, rose from 2.2p for a reason....Lets see if well 6 can continue to produce 14,500 bopd...as we have found out FB's are far from an exact science...more like a case of throwing their particular analysis on data that they gather but based on interpretation and theoretical/conceptual bias.....but hey lets see....if anybody thinks geology/geologists are scientists after this debacle...time to get real!

There are/were Dr Trice University positions and also the peer reviewed and co-authored papers...well what does all that tell you

NGMS, works on probability, s/he has not said that there is no future path (after all who could deny the success at Lancaster, Lincoln, and oil at Warwick West, the historical testing etc.). There is plenty more to explore, and if the oil can be found to date, it can also be found elsewhere on license. The issue is the path ahead and finance/belief/commitment (all affected by POO, performance at Lancaster, and decisions on Lincoln)

NG...what about the BOD saying they could bring 7z on stream again, are still discussing with Spirit etc....could you please try and provide a more rounded depiction (Ps did you buy some at 2.2p/2.3p?)

[cobra kai] 01/12/2020 17:45

what to do guys? shall I get out for some fist fight with the mms? I will sure lose against these giants.


Where's JohnCraven? Is he compiling some fake rumour bid :)

CK

[ngms27] 01/12/2020 17:27

deltalo, but what about the September 11th RNS where they shut in well 7z due to instability and are only producing from well 6.

Then September production averaged less than 12k bopd.

October 8th production was 14.5k bopd.

I think you are somewhat mistaken or alternatively deliberately misleading.

[deltalo] 01/12/2020 17:02

No not 20 but 17,000 bopd. That's the reason for ongoing maintenance. All being well we'll achieve that and more soon enough. .........................................................................Operational UpdateOn 2 August 2020, the Aoka Mizu FPSO underwent a controlled shutdown to undertake an inspection. The inspection identified necessary repairs which have been ongoing in recent days, with production expected to restart imminently. Immediately prior to the shutdown, the field was producing at a gross rate of c.17,000 bopd.

[ngms27] 01/12/2020 16:28

deltalo, can you please advise this uninformed investor how they will ramp up the production now maintenance is complete?

What will they ramp up production to given it was 14500 bopd after maintenance? 20,000bopd?

[whitedukejay] 01/12/2020 16:16

"So, the long awaited HUR update....

You obviously meant much awaited update ,getting a bit ahead of yourself, calm down FGS

[bearnecessities33] 01/12/2020 16:14

HUR dumping all predominantly occurred via the mysteriously brutal kitchen sink episode back in September, hence, now way too oversold & undervalued here in HUR based on fundamentals in my opinion, and pending updates (whenever they are released during during this month) are much more likely to start a major breakout rally from these levels than anything else, DYOR.

[deltalo] 01/12/2020 16:13

Makes no difference when any news is released, it's the same as it has to be anytime of the year, transparency is good so I expect them to ramp up production now maitanance is complete.

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/12/2020 16:11

keepitsimple5
1 Dec '20 - 15:33 - 21656 of 21658
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HUR Assets/Licenses lie in one of the richest north sea regions and thereby, provide immense Exploration & Development potential for the company going forward which together with it's present production levels


....Plenty of opps to pepper the sandstones with Explo wells & try to figure them out....& Lancs & Lincs are solid Dev options..... You've hit the nail on the head though, when you mention "present production levels".... Given present production levels & the booked (P1) Reserves, it won't last.

Which rather begs the question.......... as to how you'll fund the Explo & Dev.....always assuming you can kick the convertibles down the road....

Your mate Onlylongterm9 (post 21645) was eqally bullish this morning. You may have seen his post ;-#)))

[pro_s2009] 01/12/2020 16:00

Getting interesting.

We all know........companies hold back the very worst most dire news and dump it into the Christmas/New Year holidays.

So, the long awaited HUR update.......is it going to be held up for a special release during the holiday period ?

We are into December, nerves will become very frayed if we get to say 18th December and no HUR update.......because then we are into the 2 week period of "bad news dumping".

[deltalo] 01/12/2020 15:52

Some will look back here in a few months and think, why the hell did I sell so cheap.Just buy as much as you can and leave it. it's only a matter of when this multibags not if. I'm very excited about this I must say. Dyor .

[keepitsimple5] 01/12/2020 15:33

HUR Assets/Licenses lie in one of the richest north sea regions and thereby, provide immense Exploration & Development potential for the company going forward which together with it's present production levels/overall company potential (with POO on the rise), make HUR share price a steal at these crazy low valuations, IMHO, and not long now to find out lot more detail on this outlook.

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/12/2020 13:17

jacks....average WC for Sept was 16%.....the update gives the WC at 19% as at 8th Oct.

So maybe a combination of a tighter choke early in Sept & the gradual increase in the WC ?

[ngms27] 01/12/2020 13:14

Well we know they had 5 days of shut in in September as per the 11th September RNS so likely 25 days of production. This would have come out at closer to 14K per day if it weren't for the shut in.

What this infers is one or both of the following:
1) When they open the choke to maintain production the water cut starts to materially increase
2) Water cut is increasing materially with production

Like Steve73 says, next months data will be revealing.

[steve73] 01/12/2020 13:00

jacks.. Thanks for posting the production figures..

The harder they pull the well, the more the water "cones" up. So a lower production rate is consistent with a lower water cut.. They could have choked it back a little, or perhaps the FBHP is still dropping steadily.

Pity that the oil rate is below their stated target though, albeit only marginally.. but they should be able to make up the average.. The next full month (Oct) will be telling.

[laserdisc] 01/12/2020 12:48

my notes i had 480,000 offload for that 17th offload on 8th October co advised mid october but tanker arrived early on 8th October.
If the well is shut off for a period of time i believe it settles down pressure regulates so when it comes back on they can see an improvement you are probably correct re the chokes

[jacks13] 01/12/2020 12:36

A question for those with knowledge of these matters. Well 205/21a-6 produced at c.14,500 bopd on natural flow when the well was actually flowed; but it was flowed for only part of the month. Hence the average daily oil production for September, as would be expected, came in lower than the live rate at only 11,641 bopd. But why would the average water cut be lower than the live water cut (16% v 19%)? Is it likely to be a result of their tinkering with chokes or pumps and such?

[jacks13] 01/12/2020 12:06

For those interested in such things, the field production data for September is now released.*

Daily Average Production (bbl/d)
Oil 11,641
Water 2,223
Water Cut 16%

*

And, from the Q3 Update (8 Oct):
'Oil production in the third quarter of 2020 was at an average rate of 13,600 bopd, which was lower than the 14,300 bopd average rate in the second quarter. This was as a result of the shut in of the 205/21a-7z well from early August, a controlled shutdown of the FPSO for repairs in August 2020, scheduled annual FPSO maintenance in early September 2020 and a short shut in of the 205/21a-6 well for data gathering purposes towards the end of the period.
Since the Company's interim results announcement on 11 September 2020, the field has been producing from the 205/21a-6 well alone. Current production is c.14,500 bopd on natural flow with a water cut of c.19%. In line with the Company's expectations, the 205/21a-6 well is exhibiting a limited decline in oil production rate accompanied by a limited increase in water cut.
Average production guidance of 12,000 - 14,000 bopd for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 remains unchanged.'

[porky8] 01/12/2020 11:37

Double Bottom in.

[kaos3] 01/12/2020 11:24

ngms - fair and correct answer regarding OWC that I agree with
i only have one personal preference - jellyfish model - as it resonates with my reasoning. thnx

always appreciate your technical input

[whitedukejay] 01/12/2020 11:07

Stay where you are grasshopper, its a war out here.

[cobra kai] 01/12/2020 10:13

Guys

I am still hiding in my dojo. Shall I come out or mms still sweeping the legs?


CK

[ngms27] 01/12/2020 09:57

Well over the years Dr T has proposed various options around the OWC:
1) Jellyfish model where OWC changes depending on fracture connectivity to aquifer. I've never seen another reference to such a beast
2) Slanted OWC, which does occur in some reservoirs
3) Standard OWC which is what Dr T and the CPR settled for

Most technical article's I've read on FB and I've read a lot tend to support the standard OWC model in the absence of fault blocks with sealing faults. They also suggest that water breakthrough via coning from an aquifer is related to:
a) Distance of well bore from aquifer
b) Viscosity difference between oil and water. i.e. Breakthrough takes longer with heavier oil than it does with lighter oil
c) Production rates. You suck too hard early doors trying to produce over a shorter time frame rather than less hard over a longer timeframe which ultimately produces more oil

It's my opinion that HUR have been affected by all of these points.

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/12/2020 09:42

kaos3
1 Dec '20 - 09:21 - 21641 of 21642
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and you are completely avoiding my point - is there only one OWC over the whole field?

..That would be a complete nightmare for Lancs.......it would suggest numerous, small & unconnected pockets of "resevoir". If the good doctor (& seismic!) are correct, there's a pretty extenive, connected network of fractures, so a comon OWC