Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[laserdisc] 21/11/2020 08:59

Thankyou Porohmahnn for your analysis. Also thanks to all posters who have given me tick ups on the shipwatching this week and past. The q88 site i have used before its a useful guide. As you say it can't necessarily be relied upon, thats the thing with ship watching its a guide of events happening the conclusions gathered can be compared to what the co is saying.
I had possibly avail on 12th of 400000 that was at 13,100bopd, add say another 6 days production to 18th presume flare was still glowing on going production that gives around 480,000. Notice there is a difference between winter / summer on draft capacity on Navion of .32.for comparison with prev offloads
we know the AM pumps AT 20,000 although someone mentioned 25,000 i go for lower @20,000 x 21hrs after checks would give 420,000 so my conclusion between 420,000 to 480,000 compared to q88 527,347bbls of 38.2 API oil.

[tournesol] 21/11/2020 07:14

HyperAl

.. large turbines use electric power to supply inertia to…..

No. That's wrong. It's over 50 years since I did A level Physics but I can still remember that:-

Inertia is an intrinsic quality of matter, akin to mass. It's not something that can be "supplied". It refers to the way a body at rest "resists" being moved or a moving body "resists" being deflected/slowed/accelerated.

I'm guessing you meant to say …to overcome inertia….

[porrohmahnn] 21/11/2020 03:45

According to the Marine Traffic website, the draft of Navion Oceania, the shuttle tanker that recently uplifted a cargo from Aoka Mizu, is 10.5m;

hxxps://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:372801/mmsi:311020200/imo:9168946/vessel:NAVION_OCEANIA?fbclid=IwAR10uZhDWd0vWmRxCNrwzZD4aluXhc_DulrJPwYlrMMkRQ5LP_2YgrTwQjM

According to the website below, that draft, in winter, translates to 527,347bbls of 38.2 API oil.

hxxps://www.q88.com/viewship.aspx?id=9531F29D76ECB8F2C84151D6B544A910&vessel=Navion+Oceania&tab=dwt

That equates to about 13,200 bopd versus the average production guidance of 12,000 – 14,000 bopd for the period 1 September 2020 to 31 December 2020 stated in the Operational and Corporate Update issued on 8th October.

These figures can't necessarily be relied upon but it's the best information I have. The tanker is expected to reach Rotterdam on Sunday at 23:00.

[fat frank] 20/11/2020 20:48

My bet is on $55 bbl Q2 2021

[encarter] 20/11/2020 20:12

Edge your bets. For oil HUR for wind WPHO.

[thanksamillion] 20/11/2020 20:11

Non the less Brent rises through $45 tonight.

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/11/2020 17:37

Thanks - he's talking about demand being back at pre-pandemic levels in Asia...... not the US. Europe doesn't get mentioned, but safe bet demand is still to recover.

From last week's IEA report (which covers the US),

"Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.4 million barrels a day, down by 9.1% from the same period last year. "

That's off the bottom of earlier this year, but still a way to go. Also,

"U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 13, 2020 which was 395,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 77.4% of their operable capacity last week"

Pre-Covid, refineries were running at around 90% capacity (give or take)

[ctc1] 20/11/2020 17:19

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Demand-Is-Primed-For-A-Major-Recovery.html

[scaleyman] 20/11/2020 17:14

Cheers laser.

[pcok] 20/11/2020 17:14

New draught 10.5m.

[laserdisc] 20/11/2020 16:42

Tanker now leaving was in port for 24hrs the 18th offload now completed .DUE Shell terminal in Rotterdam dMONDAY 23-NOV-2020 02:30

Timings AM
2020-11-19 15:38 LT (UTC) Arr
2020-11-20 15:34 LT Departure

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/11/2020 16:39

Got a link for that Bloomberg piece? Sounds dubious to me, demand still well off in the US (see latest IEA report), US refineries running well below capacity & OPEC still has several million bbls of capacity shut in

[thanksamillion] 20/11/2020 16:00

Oil futures curve signals strength, oil demand back to pre pandemic level. Bloomberg

[thanksamillion] 20/11/2020 11:45

21187, gets my vote for laugh of the day.

[jibba jabber] 20/11/2020 11:43

Too many traders in this halting any decent rise.

[cinoib] 20/11/2020 11:40

Hyper al, In most part I agree and have already diversified some of my portfolio into renewable, but not wind. Wind energy is a waist of space as it requires a minimum wind speed of 15 knotts to turn those blades and according a friend who works in wind energy. When the wind drops they use electric power to turn the blades to make people think they are doing a good job. When in reality they use as much electric as they produce when the wind is above required speed.

[laserdisc] 20/11/2020 10:49

tanker still unloading
flight just left dyce for AM lots of cancelled flights yesterday with the bad weather , its catch up today for most of north sea ops

[ngms27] 20/11/2020 10:46

I think the point is it is always impossible if not difficult to value any oil company.Brokers tend to be over optimistic. It's a case of personal opinion if there is or isn't any value

[keepitsimple5] 20/11/2020 09:45

IF HUR ends up having exploration success within their prolific assets/licensed areas (likely IMO), then the "Bull Case" here will be a lot higher than 20p, IMOO.

[pro_s2009] 20/11/2020 09:10

That sums it up very well ghhghh. Nobody knows.

[ghhghh] 20/11/2020 09:04

Morgan Stanley updated. They are discontinuing coverage but closed off with range of valuations

Bull case 20p. $55 oil, 8% cost of capital, no value GWA

Base case 2p. $45 oil, 10% cost of capital, no further activity eg 9.5 mmbbl of 2C.

Bear case 0p. $35 oil, 11% cost of capital etc

Bottom line - impossible to value right now! Need more info from HUR. Hence no price target