Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jibba jabber] 18/11/2020 08:06

10p by xmas, watch this space now.

[sji] 18/11/2020 05:36

Navion Oceania arriving to Lancaster oil field just now. Offloading should start later on today. Let's see how long it will take and how the draught will change from the current 9.4m.

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 20:59

Might well do, but probably 180 to 200p by then ;)

[thegreatgeraldo] 17/11/2020 20:06

Closed your short?

[leoneobull] 17/11/2020 19:14

Taken touchstone off watchlist, can see it stagnating in 2021

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 17:09

I'm in Touchstone at present and enjoying the scenery

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 16:57

Ah I have two models.One pessimistic and one more optimistic.Remember no predictions just models.The optimistic one has cases, sorry barrels around 12k per day, the pessimistic one 10k

[fat frank] 17/11/2020 16:26

Exactly!!! Watching a steady stream of tankers arriving for offload is very exciting and encouraging. Trying to calculate amount of cargo onboard by simply reading their draft is unreliable (although slightly less so as this vessel has been on location before).

Once again you try and manipulate someone's honest opinion to try and prove that they know less than you.

You really are a very strange chap.

[fat frank] 17/11/2020 15:55

ngms27 11 Nov '20 - 09:39 - 21034 of 21136
"Too early. I’d be looking at some time in December if my projected model is correct"


.... any comments as to the accuracy of your 'projected model' seeing how offload is at least 14 days prior to your estimate???

[thegreatgeraldo] 17/11/2020 15:48

I've seen it posted on here, by someone who values his own opinion, that shuttle tanker watching is rather unreliable

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 15:37

36 days production @12k gives 432k barrels so above historical norms.

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 15:35

Do the maths. My model suggests production is around 12k give or take 500 barrels.This isn't a prediction it's a model but the off take data does suggest I'm in the right ball park.

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 15:32

I've used more up to date data than you so why are you being over optimistic?

[sji] 17/11/2020 15:05

NGMS27: Reference is made to HUR RNS dated 29.01.2020

QUOTE

Oil sales: 2.9 million barrels of oil across seven cargoes

UNQUOTE

So, on average, 2.9 million / 7 = c.414k

Once again, why are you always so negative?!

[sji] 17/11/2020 14:52

Ngms27: Didn't you say (just a few days ago) that according to your model, our next offload was not due before mid-December? What happened in your opinion?

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 14:03

I'd say 380k to 420k

[ngms27] 17/11/2020 14:01

Sorry but average offload in the public domain is circa 383k Why do you all think they took over 500k last time and will do this time?

[fat frank] 17/11/2020 12:17

Laser: DP Ops are always going to be weather dependant with the actual hook-up probably the most critical element.

Looking at the WoS forecast for the next few days brings back a lot of memories but also makes me happy with my desk these days!!!

[katiegos] 17/11/2020 12:05

Thinking back bountyhunter had sept 18th for "next offload" last year NGMS said NO 10 days later

guess who was right?. seems you get it wrong more than right Jonnie

[laserdisc] 17/11/2020 12:05

frank page 10 onwards . I think current and wave heights are important. This link gives some details on health and safety during offloads It is a long document but gives some pointers helicopters supply vessels fpso etc


i rember rc saying once brent exceeds 43 or thereabouts gives some manoevability on cash flows

[master rsi] 17/11/2020 11:14

Some changes at Order book for the better

the 3.446p at offer is gone with an AT and the next was 50K of WINS at 3.50 that they jump ship after that and move to 4p, they did not wait for the AT to take the 50K
now added at offer 3.498p 116,080 11:12am

4p 75,000 WINS 11:11am

[fat frank] 17/11/2020 11:01

I wish some of the depressions on this board would move thru.......