Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 10/3/2019 20:41

Buywell big oil is putting cents on the dollar into other forms of energy. That only leaves 90c in the dollar for oil. Good luck on your 30p short, you are going to need a lot of capital to cover the losses.

As for why Big Oil would invest in alternatives it’s good for PR, hedges a few bets and allows them an inside track on how to embed oil further into the future.

Hope your right Steve re future pricing, it will be nice to see Hurricane north of 100p, a place it would certainly now have been if Crystal Amber had not played short term “Silly b*ggers.”

[ltinvestor] 10/3/2019 19:26

Great summary Steve.At the last AGM RT said privately to me , when asked about the flow, that according to all their data the well would flow extremely well.With regards to oil water contact he said ask him in 4 years time!

[buywell3] 10/3/2019 19:22

I am always interested in the MACROS that are behind the SECTOR of the company I am considering making an investment in.

But number one is the CEO and his track record.

A major MACRO just now is an obvious one , the price of OIL which drives OIL stocks like POG drives mining stocks.

China is slowing and has been for around 10 years now , but it's now slowing quicker.

Global Growth is slowing and people in most countries and Governments are worried.
This is leading to protectionism and trade sanctions , stronger countries can weather a storm from within using their own consumers to maintain economic stability.

The USA being the prime example.

I don't think anyone here will argue that a slowdown is in fact taking place and that OIL demand will fall as a result.

The last quick drop in OIL triggered the last drop in the markets , which has now been partially repaired as OIL has nearly gone back to where it was before the drop.

But have things improved regarding the Global Growth story as big nations like the USA and China have gone on a debt fueled binge and printed money like confetti.
Resulting in near ZERO interest rates and property bubbles everywhere.

These property bubbles are now popping in most countries including the UK.

In the meantime the USA has used its shale oil to become the leading OIL producer in the world. It has got so much that it can now supply itself and can export the stuff. Production costs have dropped as technology used has got better. Many Shale operations are profitable at $50 a barrel.

We are entering a dodgy period where there will be an oversupply of OIL because the USA has transformed its OIL production capabilities so that it can't be got at by OPEC. The tail is now wagging the dog ... woof.

Then comes the double whammy as Global Growth is stalling and indeed starting to reverse in some EU countries now. It is assumed that this is going to get worse later this year or next year.

As all experienced investors know , Mr Market is a forward thinking animal , forward by approx 1 year IMO.

Hence IMO OIL is now about to resume its slide as of now.

I expect this time the USA DOW Industrial index will test 20,000 within 3 months, by the end of this June.

If I am right HUR will see 30p as I have stated.

I am not short HUR , but I don't like OIL stocks much or any stock that lacks green credentials. IMO there are enough green type stocks to chose from without having to pollute a dying and now over-populated world.

[the guardian] 10/3/2019 19:03

Thanks Steve. I think you have the basics correct although the level of short term trading could impact the price in either direction.

[v11slr] 10/3/2019 18:53

If you're interested in the future of energy this is worth watching.

[buywell3] 10/3/2019 18:34

You guys have noted that BIG OIL companies are investing in other Electricity Investments that tie into the EV story, as well as the MASSIVE sovereign Norway Fund(mostly OIL related).


You need to ask yourselves why this lot of OIL thought leaders are now putting their money elsewhere or taking it out of OIL .

Re Battery Power comment regarding lack of capacity

Recently TESLA installed a Battery Back up System connected directly to an Electricity Grid which can power a STATE IN AUSTRALIA in the event of an emergency.



So its already happening

Rahosi10 Mar '19 - 09:15 - 42591 of 42619

It will be a VERY long time before power storage technology will get anywhere near the power density to weight ratio of oil based fuels.

[damac] 10/3/2019 18:10

You also have to factor in HUR becoming a Ftse 250 company after 6 months analysis of Lancaster production.

[ronwilkes123] 10/3/2019 17:14

No advice intended ?

[eggbaconandbubble] 10/3/2019 16:45

Steve, NAI? Not An Investor?

[bountyhunter] 10/3/2019 16:28

Yes a good comprehensive post Steve (608), all sounding quite plausible.

[steve73] 10/3/2019 16:20

hopeful.. post 613.

If the Warwick drills proves up the oil that will give us around 3.3 Bn bbl of reserves and contingent resources, some of which will be in production.

$1/bbl would be VERY cheap for that.

Lots of "if's" in my guestimate though, but I don't think they're too unrealistic.

Thanks for the plus 1 as well, from whoever.. They might be worth something one day as well.

[hopeful holder] 10/3/2019 16:06

I think you have detailed out a nice rise with certain parameters. If they do come to be accurate I'm sure a lot of people here will be very happy, me included.Question though, a Mcap of 3.3Bn Stirling does seem high with a small-ish productionat your bottom end prediction. Whilst I hope that is true it makes for an eyewatering amount.Here's hoping we stay on track and deliver as per presentations.Cheers Steve for sharing your view.

[ronwilkes123] 10/3/2019 15:50

Excellent post Steve

[dcarn] 10/3/2019 15:47

Very well put Steve.

[soilderboy] 10/3/2019 15:32

I think you about nailed it. Could'nt have described it better.If one works to those parameters and expectations you can manage your investment accordingly. Bingo!

[steve73] 10/3/2019 14:29

I have some pretty well defined targets for the coming share price

50p is pretty much nailed on when they make the next hook-up attempt.
55p on success.. possibly a bit higher, or maybe a few traders will knock it back.
60-65p when first oil is declared, perhaps dropping back from hook-up success if it takes longer than the 3 weeks we've been "promised".

After that thing will be a little more hazy.
We know the wells will easily flow at 10,000bpd, so we don't need to see that... But what we don't know is will they keep going at that rate, and how quickly will the reservoir pressure drop... and will it fully recover on a PBU (pressure build up) test. HUR probably won't RNS any such details, at least until all the single well testing and interference tests are completed, which will probably take 2-3 months, and should be complete about the time that we're ready for the first offload - which obviously we WILL all know about... I'd expect a RNS at this point to confirm the ship-watchers.
With the share price increasing to around 70-80p at this stage.

Assuming both wells then are at 10k each, the next offload will be around 25 days later... and regularly at the same frequency thereafter. Each 1/2MM bbl load will bring in c. $30 Million of cash revenue, and that alone is worth 1.5p on the SP, although the REAL gain will be from demonstrating there are no serious reservoir problems. I'd expect the share price to rise with each confirmed offloading at this periodic frequency, maybe +5p each for the first couple and a little less on each one after that. Any delays will knock it back HARD.

Oil price will obviously have some overlying influence as well.. Over $70 and it'll probably add 5-10% to the SP, probably similar for every $5/bbl above this.. or likewise discounting if below.

And then there the GWA drilling. If the first Warwick well proves oil there's another step up. Success at Lincoln provides the next well to tie-back for the EPS. And then the last Warwick well will confirm the discovery.. I'd suggest around 10p rise with each success.

So, if all goes to plan by the end of the year I'd expect to see around 135-180p depending on oil price @ $65-80/bbl, and whether it responds 5 or 10%.

But if some of the big boys want to play with our toy.. it could be double this or more.
All IMHO, NAI, DYOR, and all the other caveats...

[davidblack] 10/3/2019 12:21

One of my geological friends on climate change talks about a spike in co2 making the climate persistently warmer then massive sequestration of carbon into the seas particularly in the North Pacific.

And then a 5c drop in temperature wiping out most of Europe, the US, Canada southern Australia and the southern part of Africa.

That version of the future is even worse as it could happen in just five to ten years!

So perhaps a little less carbon dioxide and better fuel consumption would not be a bad thing?

Plus there simply isn’t enough nice oil so Hurricane can make a lot of money especially if filthy technologies like coal, lignite and wood burning comes to an end.

[dropside] 10/3/2019 12:05

Pro_S2009 you are right that the earth's climate has changed over time for various reasons. There were at least two mass extinction events - 252 million years ago and at the end of the Cretaceous 66m years ago. Obviously these factors had nothing to do with human action!

The concern right now seems to be that we are doing this all by ourselves. We could be creating a vicious circle of climate effects (on forests reduced ability to absorb CO2, ice caps, accelerating extreme events, beneficial insect decline..)making the earth hostile to life. I don't want my grandchildren to find out whether this is the case or not- but grandad did nothing about it as he was invested in oil companies!

[pol123] 10/3/2019 11:53

55 hook up
65 FOIL

[rayrac] 10/3/2019 11:25

Climate change is normal. There was an ice age just 10 thousand years ago. But if you want to lower pollution, then have a go at the US and China with Bangkok thrown in, it’s difficult to breathe in that city!

[steve73] 10/3/2019 10:18

buywell.. post ..589

You are correct that over the new few decades Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) cars will take a massive chunck out of the ICE market.. It's expected that by 2040 around 50% of new vehicles (cars & trucks) globally are expected to be BEV, and by 2050 half the vehicles in use on the roads will be electric, and there'll be more than twice as many cars in total in 2040 as there are now, and almost 3x as many by 2050.

Now where will they get their electricity from? Thin air perhaps?

Battery storage is improving all the time, but the "energy density" of even the best battery technology is less than 10% of hydrocarbon fuel. Electric motors are much more efficient than an ICE, but overall BEV's will only ever manage about a third of the range of an equivalent BEV. Now for many (perhaps most) applications that's fine; a 50mile commute each way followed by an overnight charge is an ideal use for a BEV, but not suitable for the family holiday, or visit to the in-laws (which should always be at least 200 miles away..!!)

Fuel cells offer a much better solution for a longer range (or faster refueling, equivalent to ICEs), but current technology is still "10 years from commercialization" like it was when I studied them at university 40 years ago, although they are slowly getting closer. When you can fuel one with a liquid fuel similar to gasoline, then they may get a wider adoption. But with the current limitation of requiring Hydrogen, then they will never go mainstream.

Same limitations for HGV's, although they are usually in use for longer than most private cars, and so range or refueling are critical.

I agree that electric Trains can easily replace diesel.. The tracks can be used to continually supply the power. (Perhaps continually/occasionally supplied electricity could be built into the roads - or at least the motorways.. bit like Scaletrix, but without the slots.)

As you say aircraft are a major problem. The present generation of commercial aircraft on long haul flights need about 1/3 or their takeoff weight for fuel (another 1/3 is the dry weight, and the last 1/3 for passengers & cargo). The weight of Batteries needed would be more than the maximum allowable total takeoff weight. Battery electric aircraft could be made to work for short-haul though, but fuel cells would be needed for long haul... and we're still at least 10 years (+) away from that.

btw, just to correct you. Commercial airliners do not use jet engines. They usually use turbo-fan engines, where the "jet-turbine" drives a massive fan that blows additional air to provide the thrust, and are limited to sub-sonic speeds. True jet engines use just the high speed exhaust gas from the engines (with after-burn if required) to provide the thrust directly. These could never be replaced with a motor driven fans or propellers.

But even when we get fuel cells - where do we get the fuel from?

Solar PV or wind turbines will continue to be installed. Wave/tidal power also, but the cost of such schemes are huge... requiring massive amounts of energy, and where will that come from?

Nuclear power, fission (or fusion if we ever mange to harness it) also requires HUGE upfront costs... and that again means existing energy from oil.

We ARE starting to shift away from hydrocarbon sources, but the faster we try to replace it, the more of it we need to be able to do so.. and as the rest of the world develops, the amount of energy required keeps increasing, without even trying to replace it with non-hydrocarbon sources.

Oil demand will continue to increase by around 2-3% per year for at least the next 20 years, and gas for even longer (although coal usage should start to decline during the next decade, unless Chia & India keep growing like they have been.)

Probably the quickest/easiest way to reduce hydrocarbon consumption is the reduce the global population by around 90-95%. Those remaining should be able to manage much more sustainably. I sometimes wonder if this plan isn't already being put into action.

Sorry for the off-topic.. but it is the weekend...!

[ronwilkes123] 10/3/2019 10:03

That's not what I was asking fatnackerIt's where a successful hookup would take the price