Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thanksamillion] 12/11/2018 11:15

Marinetraffic site shows Tarik Shipping agency - Bunkering and supply near to AM, 15m off Algeciras

[tournesol] 12/11/2018 11:01

Bocase

The relationship between share prices and POO is much more nuanced than you suggest.

I think of the share price of any E&P as the intersection of two different vectors which arise from 2 different mindsets.

First there is the E&P industry mindset. When an exploration or development project is being evaluated the analysis is based not on a snapshot of POO at time of analysis but rather on the long term expectation of POO over the next 5-10-20 years. It is the expectation of POO, costs and resulting profits that determine the viability of the project. Expectations are much less volatile than the spot price of POO. A project considered economically worthwhile yesterday does not become uneconomic today on the back of a sudden, price fall that is expected to be a temporary blip.

When a predator E&P is considering bidding for a target E&P it calculates the target value on the basis of its long term expectations for POO vs the current spot price of the target. So the value of the target does not change with temporary blips in POO, although its share price (and hence its cheapness) might, because of the following.

Short term investors in E&Ps often watch the ups and downs of POO without properly considering the underlying long term trend and without forming a long term expectation. They might well trade E&P shares in response to blips in spot POO and that will of course affect the share price. So there might be some superficial correlation between share price and POO.

In the short term share prices are affected by short term trading. In the longer term they are affected much more strongly by the valuations determined by predators.

My expectation is generally for a random walk driven by short term investors which converges on a valuation based on medium term (and often too conservative) forecasts from brokers/analysts and is then sometimes boosted by predatory bids

I expect this to happen to Hurricane. A random walk up a rising trend followed by a sale of assets or the whole co. The only thing to do is to buy at the low end of the rising channel and hold on until things change. Day to day volatility in POO is just a distraction.

[steelwatch] 12/11/2018 10:47

Looks like AM is stopping off at ALG..

[gary38] 12/11/2018 10:36

This should start moving up again after taking out stop loss orders.

[davidblack] 12/11/2018 10:35

Beyond falling oil hitting all the juniors, rising interest rates are hurting the Hurricane convertibles.

That doubles the share price squeeze on Hurricane. That is until we arrive back in Scottish waters and start hooking up hopefully.

[gary38] 12/11/2018 10:32

Morgan Stanley recommends a buy .18p worst case if problems with major oil flow .

[davidblack] 12/11/2018 10:31

Oh and beyond the impact of falling oil hitting all the juniors, rising interest rates hit the convertibles which doubles the downward pressure on Hurricane until “events” take over.

[bocase] 12/11/2018 10:17

Anley:

I have to disagree with you that the oil price has nothing to do with the share price of HUR. It determines the value of it's assets at any moment in time and the potential cash flow meaning the share price is highly correlated with the oil price in the same way as the gold price determines the price of gold miners and the iron ore price determines the prices of Rio Tinto etc. If you compare the charts of the oil price and the HUR share prices, which I am not clever enough to replicate here, you will see a very high degree of correlation.

I agree though that this will become even more important once oil is flowing.

[anley] 12/11/2018 10:04

Sort of on the Home Run heading North.

The price of oil has nothing to do with the share price of HUR. The company does not pump oil and when it does that will be the time when the market may sit up and take notice provided the flows are all doing well.

In the meantime take note on what Morgan Stanley mentioned - Bear case 18p but uplift to 60p+ on good oil flows and the sky's the limit after that.

The time frame for all this is Jan 2019 onwards.

[haideralifool] 12/11/2018 09:59

I think these guys were also glad to be clearing the Straits:

[the guardian] 12/11/2018 09:15

If the AM doesn't stop off at Algeciras, it will exit the Straits of Gibralter in about four and a half hours time.

[telbap] 12/11/2018 08:17

That deserves a Monday (non gender) thumbs up:-)

[the guardian] 12/11/2018 06:56

Thanks blueclyde, the Saudis cutting back on oil is great news. I wish that Trump would get himself impeached so that the world can return to relative normality.

Edit. Crossing my fingers for a better week.

[bountyhunter] 12/11/2018 06:45

direct link to AZ location, just about to pass Gibraltar...

[lfdkmp] 12/11/2018 06:27

Always makes me smile when people (and please note I am not being gender specific) get things wrong and then magnanimously announce that they haven't taken offence.

[albi101] 11/11/2018 22:44

Jacks13, Chessman et al yes - new to this board and could have messaged Jacks13 privately which I now have and understand where he's coming from. No offence meant or taken and yes ... back to our investment!

[bocase] 11/11/2018 22:33

Chessman:

AM now offshore the Costa del Sol. Gibraltar by lunchtime Monday.



Hopefully a bounce in the oversold oil price tomorrow and 2p on HUR, not that it matters at this stage but I am sure it would offer us all a little cheer on a Monday morning.

[blueclyde] 11/11/2018 22:19

Saudi to cut 500k December exports so things will hopefully be sort by the time of first oil.

[enfranglais] 11/11/2018 22:19

gary the 80 year old child "This board is not a current affairs board,this board is to discuss issues to do with Hurricane Energy."
What a laugh, except of course, when he wants to be a pompous old fart?!!!

[davidblack] 11/11/2018 22:10

How fast might the AZ travel going from Gib to Rotterdam?

Or rather I’d she likely to travel at the current 7 or 8 knots that we have seen in what I assume are rougher waters of the Mediterranean?

[scaleyman] 11/11/2018 21:54

Will it only be fuel that took her draft from 9.8 to 10.4??

[chessnutuk3] 11/11/2018 21:52

It will be going passed my Spanish home tomorrow lunchtime. It's a shame I won't be there till Thursday eve, so I won't be able to see it.Hopefully only another few months of waiting.Best wishes to all.

[chessman2] 11/11/2018 21:36

Albi is a very recent newcomer to Advfn and I’m sure she did not mean to upset anyone by changing the discussion from HUR to PC matters which many of us are tired of reading about.

Back to HUR please. Are we through the straits yet?

[gary38] 11/11/2018 21:03

This board is not a current affairs board,this board is to discuss issues to do with Hurricane Energy.

[davidblack] 11/11/2018 20:42

A small thought on the price of crude of late.

Is it possible that Trump “agreed” to be supportive of MBS, the prince who is running Saudi Arabia after their Turkish troubles with the murdered journalist. Trump certainly might see the Republicans as benefiting at the November mid term elections if gasoline prices were lower at the pumps come voting day? Hence why the Saudis increased their output or maybe just released stock?

But then maybe “real politik” kicks in on the Iranian oil sanctions and suddenly Washington is handing out sanction exemptions “like candy” to any Asian ally or economic foe who asks.

Add in the fact that the Iran’s have not cut production at all and Saudi might feel it got screwed temporarliy. But that in the end was the price of “Fixing” the Turkish journalist issue so they will not complain too much.

So back to normal now for Saudi production and back to rising oil prices?

And if you like conspiracy politics Trump had meetings with Putin this weekend in Paris and Trump was also placed for dinner last night with the Turkish President, so maybe they have all come to an understanding. In the end the presidents of Russia, Turkey, Russia and MBS in Saudi Arabia all are there because of their populist politics and have no interest in upsetting the status quo on trifling things like “Ethics.”;

But then again I am a believer in conspiracy politics!