Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 10/11/2018 14:27

Anyone valuing HUR for FO/offer or whatever will be looking at their best guess of the price that will be obtained for production over the next 10-20 years.

They're not going to be very influenced by short terms moves in the PoO.

[fireplace22] 10/11/2018 13:49

robbiekeane I answered the question, Is HUR more likely to be taken over in a low oil price, less investment environment and the obvious answer is no. Why should anyone spend billions developing the field under that scenario. It's obviously more likely with a rising oil price, that seems logical.

[gary38] 10/11/2018 13:26

RB of CA wanted HUR sold cheaply but the management stayed strong,got the funds they needed, which were the biggest ever for a AIM company and here we are ,stronger than ever.

[gary38] 10/11/2018 12:38

I dont think soThe GWA farm-in significantly accelerates the development of the GWA, providing a clear path to its phased development and bringing forward a potential initial stage of a full field development final investment decision (FID) by a number of years. Notwithstanding the significant cash flow that the Lancaster EPS will deliver, Hurricane would not have otherwise been able to undertake such a development on a standalone basis, without impacting its ability to continue progressing its GLA licences. The GWA farm-in provides Hurricane with a new leg to its business, with a large portion of the up-front capital expenditure funded, whilst freeing up cash flow from the Lancaster EPS for appraisal and development of the rest of its portfolio.

[robbiekeane] 10/11/2018 12:37

I'm sure Centrica did their due diligence when gobbling up a slice of HUR's assets. They obviously believe - unlike some of the ahem "holders" on here.

[fireplace22] 10/11/2018 11:50

I can't see how the low oil price/low investment makes HUR more of a target, it's going to take billions to get this to FFD.

[badday] 10/11/2018 11:42

Lower oil price, less investment, increases likleyhood if opportunistic bid, and more likelyhood of major shareholders accepting.
I'd say very vulnerable now barring OPEC agreeing to scale back production next week

[gary38] 10/11/2018 11:07

Plenty of water under AM, all the way to WoS.We are possibility a couple of months away from turning potential reserves to actual reserves,the biggest Northsea oil find for a very long time. 2019 is going to see Hurricane Energy becoming an oil producer,drilling more wells and possible a war by majors fighting to buy all or parts of HUR.Those that are not invested here at these very very unbelievable low HUR share price will kick themselves later, so those waiting to jump in here ,get on board now as this train is bound for black gold city , this train is leaving now, last call.DYOR.

[jacks13] 10/11/2018 10:41

Has this issue of water ingress become the lazy man’s go to explanation for absence of a partner?
Water ingress is certainly one concern but it is not the full story by any means. Turn the clock back eighteen months and most people were aghast, I know I was, when it became clear that they intended to go it alone. The share price action since then confirms that the market has been far from sanguine about their chances of success.
The rate of extraction from the EPS will be a flea bite on an elephant and furthermore be controlled to such a degree that water ingress will almost certainly not occur; Dr Trice is clearly very confident in this. However, because of this the EPS will not entirely satisfy the doubters even over an extensive timescale.
Isn’t it far more likely that the catalogue of hurdles and potential trip wires that Hurricane have now successfully navigated and in some aspects have still to navigate are the reason for a reluctance to partner? Any problems that might have arisen (or might yet arise) that resulted in significant delays to first oil would potentially tip the asking price in the majors’ favour.
Provided the EPS meets all of its objectives and that water does not present as a problem within the operating parameters of the EPS then the EPS will have passed its test. The issue then for potential partners is to evaluate the price they are prepared to pay for the assets. Within that calculation will be the residual risk of water management; but crucially that issue will not have been entirely removed because it is in the nature of the business that water coning will have to be managed as part of operations. It is the scale and cost of that management that the EPS data and subsequent production data will fully reveal. The EPS cannot fully paint the picture.

[gibso6767] 10/11/2018 10:32

Produced Water is always a given figure

[greyingsurfer] 10/11/2018 09:45

The obsession with water ingress is just that when you consider water injection is a method of enhanced oil production

Quite a difference between using water injection to drive oil out of a conventional reservoir, under controlled conditions and water breakthrough limiting production and recovery - in particular in a fractured reservoir where the risk is greatest.

Trice is no doubt being accurate when he says he says he doesn't see a likely problem with water breakthrough. But that neither means there is no risk, nor that big O&P investors may not be concerned about it. That's one of the key issues that the EPS will have to prove up, over time, as it will with regard to possible compartmentalisation.

[telbap] 10/11/2018 09:02

Ok got your point.

[fatnacker] 10/11/2018 07:33

The obsession with water ingress is just that when you consider water injection is a method of enhanced oil production, it is not a poison pill.

[ltinvestor] 10/11/2018 07:19

Tournesol.I spoke directly with Robert Trice regarding water ingress.He laughed and said let’s speak 4 years into production...Said it wasn’t a problem at all.Hope this gives you some comfort..

[realalemadrid] 10/11/2018 05:13

Given that Hurricane and Bluewater have two core teams of incredibly talented and experienced people working on this Lancaster project it is obvious that the venture has a long term outlook, for instance an ideal scenario would be for the field to settle down after a period of perhaps 18-24 months and the money made from the oil would the be re-invested into developing other fields and further enhancing Hurticanes portfolio ! Therefore I see absolutely no value in selling part or farming out the company further until this has been realised! Exciting times for all of us indeed...

[steve73] 10/11/2018 02:44

We already have more oil, proven by well tests, than we know what to do with.
The EPS is targeting around just 2% of this.... but the EPS will prove the long term viability of the concept (as tournesol defines in the previous post).

Once proven, we (or more likely our new owners or partners) will need to make some substantial investments to fully realize the bigger value, although it's unlikely that this would occur in a single step.

As an example BP's original Scheihallion development was initially producing at 180,000 bpd, yet took almost 20 years to produce just 500MM bbls.... And there is still sufficient oil remaining to justify a complete redevelopment (as Quad 204) targeting a similar quantity over the next 20 or so years. The problem is the way long term projects are valued using the NPV method, any revenue more than 10+ years out are discounted to an almost negligible value.

That said, I estimate that a "FFD" on either GLA or GWA targeting similar rates & oil volumes as this would each deliver around $5Bn in NPV. And the structures we have could probably justify a couple of such FFD's on each.

So huge potential...but we must walk before we can run, or perhaps a better analogy is that we must crawl before we can even get up and walk.

btw, AM is just passing Algiers, and now around 13 days sailing from the Lancaster field (plus the time at R'dam). I'm still predicting hook-up on the 1st Dec..... Which is probably when we'll next get an RNS (3rd Dec, 07:00).

[tournesol] 10/11/2018 01:16

No telbap, we've been through this

concept being production which is sustainable without the reservoir watering out - without the water cut increasing rapidly - without the rate of production declining too fast

that's the investment proposition

[chopsy] 10/11/2018 01:06

2P is producible. PS love from HK.

[tournesol] 10/11/2018 00:06

No not at all

Doesn't matter how much oil there is, what matters is how much is producible without the risk of failure and that depends on proof of concept

[blueclyde] 09/11/2018 19:09

But the 12 to 18 month view does not appear to take into account the at least three wells that will be drilled. If those prove successful and production remains steady you can start pricing in perhaps 500 million barrels of oil between the two fields net to HUR.

[tournesol] 09/11/2018 18:43

It's not just 3 months of production we need - it's evidence that longer term production can be sustained without excessive water ingress

That means we need long term production records AND continuous analysis AND confirmatory positive evidence.

All of which is 12-18 months away. i do not think the share price will stay flat until then. I expect it to edge slowly higher but following an unsteady trajectory. And at some point when all the stars are aligned and the risk/reward balance has optimised we will see a predator enter stage left. Then there will be a significant uptick before we hand our golden goose to an intensive poultry farmer. Who,sad to say, will make a bigger return than we who take the early stage risks.

That's the way the cookie crumbles.

[hopeful holder] 09/11/2018 18:29

So I now have a core holding and added some to take advantage of what I see as an opportunity to mKe some money in the shorter term.

[telbap] 09/11/2018 18:20

I hope I am wrong.....as written, I loath to write it......