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[excellance] 15/3/2021 10:10

The UK never had a zero covid policy, nobody said we did.

NZ Oz and much of SE do.

Brazil has a covid denial policy, but vast sections of the populations don't qualify for hospital care anyway.

[stansmith3] 15/3/2021 10:09

minus batwell said, it is the most basic common sense, something that right wing conspiracy theorists are sadly short of

[minusbat] 15/3/2021 09:39

But "delaying the inevitable" is the whole point though. My mortgage is also "delaying the inevitable" - I am going to have to pay it all back in the end, and pay more than if I had just taken the hit upfront - but, you know, its more manageable to do that over 20 years than trying to find the money Right Now. The strain on the health system is similar, we may well get more cases, and over a longer timeframe, but at a rate that lets us treat these people, and gives us time to develop vaccines and tests. I don't think anyone claimed lockdowns would make it go away.

[stansmith3] 15/3/2021 07:15

cases spiking in europe, hospitals in some areas overwhelmedif only there was some way human interaction could be reduced...

[backinblack80] 15/3/2021 00:53

lol stansmith3, has just confirmed that he's a total moron. Thanks for filtering me you idiot. Why did he do that?...He's got no argument that's why!! Lockdowns don't work! They just delay the inevitable. Hence we are now in the 3rd or 4th lockdown..Peeps have given up their freedoms so easily based on a virus that kills very few. You can thank MSM for that and the way they have been reporting it. Lockdowns simply delay the inevitable. I'm not at all surprised that stansmith3 has filtered me because he obvs can't justify his stance. Stansmith3, are you an I'm all right jack who hasn't been seriously affected by these lockdowns? Peeps should look at Whitty's and Vallance's response a year ago. They were all for herd immunity...and totally recognised the detrimental effects of lockdowns..

[backinblack80] 14/3/2021 00:45

excellence, fireplace isn't a covid denier. Stop relying on the meaningless buzzwords to try and mask that you're an ignorant and arrogant idiot.
Lockdowns do not work.If you try to surppress a virus it causes it to mutate and become more transmittable, albeit ,perhaps, less lethal. This virus is not considered to be that bad. Obvs MSM have created massive fear amongst the uneducated public and also those who are sitting pretty due to furlough..those who are, apparently, incapable of imagining others situation...Do some research on the average age of death and the actual risk. If you look into the real detail both Chris Whitty and Patrick Valance were originally both supportive of no lockdowns, the strategy, then, was protect the vulnerable and build up herd immunity.What changed?
It's all a massive con imho.
It's been promoted as save the NHS. Well, they built the Nightingale hospitals for circa 500 million and had circa 30000 ex NHS staff on standby. Yet these were barely used and have now been decommissioned?
As I understand it, the majority of peeps caught Covid in hospital and nursing homes so that is deeply concerning when they were not using the Nightingale hospitals.
Anyone applauding the Govt response must be a pure idiot and love having their freedoms removed. Meanwhile, the police are acting like the stasi and we are still in lockdown. WTF is going on??

[swanvesta] 13/3/2021 23:36

fireplace does make a point that should be addressed though. He says that half of the population have had the virus, which is either true or false. I've certainly heard some respectable, pro lockdown commentators say that at least a third have had it. It does beg the question of whether lockdown was particularly effective.

[excellance] 13/3/2021 20:37

No point trying to explain to the likes of fireplace, covid denial is akin to lunacy, and he's too arrogant to listen to reason, he thinks he knows it all.

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 19:48

the shrinkage in gdp is there to see, the worst recession has not happened yet because the govt is giving money away at level not seen in our lifetimes...

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 19:16

the majority of the scientific community is strongly behind lockdowns, so excuse me if i dismiss your views on thatdont know how many times i can say comparing countries on a like for like basis is not easyeveryone thought it would run riot through mexico and india, but mexico was much worse for example...

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 18:40

And far more unable to accept the inevitable, the average age of a Covid victim in the UK is about the same as our current age expectancy 81-82.

The Govt came up with an impact statement after the first lockdown, (you remember it will result in the worst recession for 300 years, a saying subsequently forgotten) with that they reckoned a death toll of 200,000 as a result. Bristol Uni came up with another study in October it stated the death toll from the coming recession would be 560,000. Yes lockdowns are expensive.

[swanvesta] 13/3/2021 18:12

fireplace, it's an unfortunate fact of life that the more developed societies have a much higher burden of co-morbidity and old age. It's because we have the resources to overcome natural selection, and that sets up ever increasing burdens down the generations. I can't think of a more pleasant way of putting it, nor can I think of a way out.

[swanvesta] 13/3/2021 18:05

Refusing to entertain counterarguments because they haven't been tested is also unscientific. Except there are countries that have had no lockdowns, or where populations are largely unable to afford or accommodate them. Poorer asian and african countries for example, that pundits were once extremely worried about due to lack of healthcare, and then started worrying even more about due to pandemic-created food shortages. Many of those places seem to be doing remarkably well, comparatively speaking?

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 18:01

Net result of the last 12 months is that half the population has been infected with this disease, on that alone the (very costly) actions have failed.

Of the economically active (those below the age of 60) there has been only 400 deaths among those with no existing conditions.

60% of Covid deaths were among the disabled. Average age of the deceased is 81.
So why has the economy been put on hold? Protect the old and sick and carry on.

Its no good saying lockdowns are the answer when plainly they haven't been.

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 16:22

But the facts also are that the disease has followed exactly the same pattern in a country without lockdown.

With 50% of the population infected in what way has lockdown been successful?

If 50% of the population has been infected with 125,000 deaths, supposing the remaining 50% became infected however implausible that is.
Will a corresponding 125,000 further people die, no because many of the most vulnerable have already died at an average age of 82. So say 50,000 have been saved by the measures. The cost of managing the epidemic was quoted at £370B in the autumn. So what will it be come July ? Say £600B that's £12M for every life possibly saved by the lock down plus all the consequences to come of unemployment, mental illness, lost businesses, higher taxes etc. Worth it? would NICE spend £12M per patient (and that's a minimum) by introducing some life saving treatment especially as nearly all those would be over 70 already?

Lockdown - the roads have been as busy as ever since Christmas, they aren't just doing a round trip back home. No one believes it ever worked now.

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 15:51

ok, well i think we have found where we differsome facts..its a virus spread by close contactcutting down contact cuts down spreadlockdowns cut down close contact...

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 15:38

The fall off in UK cases in April was not a result of the lockdown though, infections peaked in March evidenced by the high hospitalisations in early April and were on the way down before lockdown. Our case pattern follows exactly that of Sweden with no lockdown, the cases peaked in April and fell quickly over the Summer to pick up again in September exactly as Sweden. The infection curve was nothing to do with lockdown that's been totally ineffective as shown by the high, 50% infection rate. The panic over hospitalisations was a scam, the £200m worth of Nightingale wards were virtually unused and sent back pre/during the second wave.
Protect the vulnerable, inform people properly and leave the u 65's to get on with their lives should have been the message, they (Govt)had enough warnings and information before this started it made a balls of it for which we will pay a heavy price in lives, health and wealth in the months, years and possibly decades ahead.

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 15:06

what can the govt really do?they ordered a lock down, deaths went to zero, economy frozenthey relaxed, we all welcomed it, and you saw what happened, so its reasonable to assume that unchecked it would have been much worse and possibly overwhelmed the nhs, then we would have the problems brazil is heading for...they managed it for what the nhs could handle, history can decide if that was good or badbest

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 14:57

From what I see of the Brazilian stats its following the UK trend but about 2 months behind. I've no doubt that the mortality in Brazil will end up higher for some of the reasons you mentioned but it will also be brought lower because of the demographics, this is very much a danger to old people and relatively harmless to the young, that will weigh in Brazils favour. A 0.1% death rate for the u 60's in the UK is quite low.

I personally believe that little of the UK Govt response has been beneficial health wise and in some cases harmful (sending old people from hospital to infect whole nursing homes. And its been economically disastrous.

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 14:39

no need to apologisebut trying to compare the uk govts response (science and action, not always correct) to the brazilian one (denial of its existence) is non sensical to mecomparing the virus spread/population effort and habits/mortality/cases/deaths/medical treatment quality and availability/climate etc in radically different countries doesnt really make too much sense eithershortly we will see the effects of a poor govt response in brazil as the health system is overwhelmedbest

[fireplace22] 13/3/2021 13:15

Unchecked? If you work out the 'tested positive' cases here of the last 6-7 months (about 6m). Assume that due to people being asymptomatic, minor symptoms, and just not wanting to get into the Govts test and trace scheme that figure is very easily doubled to say 12m maybe a lot more.

Given that the Govt said back during Aprils first wave that 20% of Londoners had the virus and that spread nationally very shorty afterwards to a similar level then that's another 12m.
About 20% of the population don't get this disease to any extent ie children. Tot those figures up and you get 12m +12m +20m children.

So at this point 44m people have had or wont get CV out of a population of what 65-70M? And you say here it's been checked? And that doesn't include the cases from April through to September.

Even if my figures are only half right it can't be described as ever been checked. And it's only cost £5B so far, Are you aware that only 4% of CV deaths in the UK were due to CV only, all the others had more conditions quoted on their death certificates. That's NHS figures.

The accepted mortality rate of CV victims in the general population is about 0.35%, for the u 60's it's 0.1%. So if 125,000 have died that's equivalent to 35M people having the disease over half of the population. Very contagious and very nasty for some individuals but not the lethal disease the propaganda has lead us to believe. But it's been an abject failure in disease control at an enormous cost yet to come.
Apologies for the rant.

[stansmith3] 13/3/2021 11:16

fireplacei think you will find brazil will turn out to show what happens if the virus is allowed to run unchecked, deaths per million is not a good comparator, the virus is at a different stage there and the country is very different in more ways than we can mentionbrits were generally given good advice, although the govt made some mistakesbrazil/usa had messages along the lines that the virus is a hoax or it will just disappear and in the case of the usa red necks etc. just decided to pretend it didnt exist brazil about to get much worse, america getting it right in the end as usual