Highway Insurance Share Discussion Threads

[still waiting] 28/2/2005 12:56

Can't believe we're still around these levels..

Cheap without a bid.

[warranty] 25/2/2005 17:56

TOPINFO, I do so hope you're right.

Do todays trades indicate some activity next week????

[still waiting] 25/2/2005 12:41

Some large trades changing hands again..

Can any bidder pick these up in the market?

[lbo] 25/2/2005 12:28

Good buying again today!

[topinfo] 23/2/2005 21:58

Warranty. My sentiments exactly. That is precisely the reason for me buying back into HWY today. It really doesnt matter either way if bid materialises and in some way you dont want it too as company could do and are doing well on their own. However consolidation in this sector is inevitable and I do see the higher price I quoted being more of a sensible offer to convince shareholders.

[warranty] 23/2/2005 21:55

Not sure about that TOPINFO. Whilst 60-65p would be great I think you may be being a little over optimistic. I still think the 50-55p range is most likely which still gives considerable upside from here.

Only problem then is would management sell at that price or believe they can take it higher themselves as the company seems to have turned a corner.

A take out would be nice but with the current yield I'm not really overly fussed one way or the other.

[topinfo] 23/2/2005 21:44

Got back into these today after seeing news yeterday. Limited downside even if bid does not materialise given their bullish forecast and I agree, any bidder in the running will now have to pay a premium to orginal figure discussed. Given that when the news was first released about a possible bid numerous sources in the financials were quoting 50-55p a share, they will now be loking at 60-65p at least. You then have the question of another predator and bidding wars take place...

[ursus] 23/2/2005 15:11

17 march for results

[theberg] 23/2/2005 13:33

PianoMan,

It strikes me with Lloyd's Results ie at least 9 out of the 14 or so PLC ILV's listed on FTSE reporting in March to April (I have not discovered yet HWY Reporting date any ideas?)the sector is likely to have the spotlight on it next month.

As such, given the fact that ILV's often rise between March and July each year I would have thought your move is far more likely to happen short term ie over next four months rather than take a long time to develope.

Your view?

Ice

[piano man] 23/2/2005 12:59

Just topped up. Take-out price will not be under 50p. Worst case senario is health yield on something that can't get much cheaper.

Motor insurers are lobbying for all cars to be insured whether used or not.

20% will do me fine sometime in the next year.

[still waiting] 22/2/2005 20:49

Think there'll be a few hitting the buy button in the morning.

Just hope the press don't pick up on the late announcement.

[jhan66] 22/2/2005 20:42

£19.5M PBT after worst case 30% tax means £13.65M & p/e of 6.
even without takeover (which I rate highly likely) p/e of 8 wouldn't be too far fetched. That's £109M or a 35% increase from here.

Can see this going to 50p fairly quickly, then have to sit on my hands.

[still waiting] 22/2/2005 20:38

Am I missing something here but is this way undervalued????

Already holding but am sorely tempted to wade in for more.

[thecleaner] 22/2/2005 19:15

Thats £15m in the second half alone!! Keep buying --

If this is taken over at £1.00 the buyer would still be having a bargain.

[factsonly] 22/2/2005 16:57

PBT not less than £19.5m, then PAT will be not less than circa £13.6m, therefore that's a P/E ratio of circa 6.4. Even at a takeover price of 60p that would only be a P/E of 9, darn cheap! That's why I think 65p+ is a fairer bid price.

[lbo] 22/2/2005 15:55

Excellant news

"In the absence of unforeseen circumstances, the Directors estimate that profit before taxation for the year ended 31 December 2004 will not be less than #19.5 million"

Especially when the average analyst PBT for 2005 and 2006 estimate was only £13.8m and £15m respectively!


Interesting statement also "The Directors confirm that they continue to hold detailed discussions and that the Directors remain of the opinion that these discussions could result in a formal offer being made for the Company"

but I concur that they would need to be offering well over 55p!

[factsonly] 22/2/2005 15:23

LOL, the announcement is superb! The company is way undervalued and I can't see the managment accepting any bid below 60p per share now. I'll settle for 65p (which is still too cheap).

[theberg] 22/2/2005 01:57

Warranty,

It will depend on the sector obviously, but I like HWY Chart, I think it is important to stress reality as opposed to over promote, but 62 businesses making an aggregate of £500,000,000 Profit is still a very creditable performance net of the worse catastrophe losses ever!

Most people would bite the arms off an average sector Company making £19.23m (£500m/62), and yet the great unwashed punt and invest in rubbish all day long instead of buying value and real corporate entities they can take a position in and relax whilst the relative sector value and profitabilty weighing takes place.

It annoys me, but such is life, they will get more defensive next month and real businesses like HWY will catch their interest once the fluff, promotion and missplaced euphoria of the bulk of the current big percentage risers strikes home and qualitative survival of and return on capital becomes the reality.

More fool gamblers IMHO I invest and trade for profit!

Berg

[warranty] 21/2/2005 21:04

Theberg, no I hadn't seen the article as have the telegraph on Sunday's but thanks for the post. Interesting but slightly concerning also by his last paragraph indicating reducing premiums!!!