Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[investor73] 27/1/2021 13:40

Hargreaves Services says it could sell its German business.

hxxps://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/hargreaves-services-sell-german-business-19708118

[muckshifter] 27/1/2021 13:29

Yes Smithie6, still room for improvement, but better.

The post period cash receipt for the Bellway sale completion announcement looks like a little bit of use of "weasel words", but it may not be intended.

In January 2021 Bellway paid £4.2m, and will eventually pay over the next two years an unknown amount which will bring the total payment to between £7.7m and the amount originally announced of "more than £9m". The potential reduction relates, I believe, to things I've occasionally posted about here before over recent years, as possible difficulties associated with old opencast and old workings. It is likely that similar potential sale value reductions will apply to other plots, imo.

The fact that the rate of house building on the whole project is restricted to rates which mean that at most 1503 dwellings can be built by end March 2037, explains, imo, why HSP have failed to prepare new plots, or sell the one that they prepared last year (2019 that is), as quickly as they had predicted in the past. The Crudens and Bellway sales already account for the allowed build total to mid 2023, so unless both companies are going to build slowly, there wouldn't be any capacity for another builder before then. But I know very little about house builders so perhaps 146 Bellway houses in 2.5 years would be unrealistic?

So, as I've posted over the last few years, I see Blindwells site as profitable but not ending up as a bonanza.

Interesting to see the Blackwells related stuff in the announcement, which more or less confirms the point I made yesterday - work on HS2 will probably just be bridge excavation until Spring, and it looks like their underemployed staff have been working on claims settlement.

Lots of other interesting stuff in the interims, but I'll leave it at that.

[investor73] 27/1/2021 13:07

Land prices for house building have risen considerably in the last six months and are still rising. This company should be able to make big profits from their land portfolio.

[smithie6] 27/1/2021 09:00

btw

super quick production of the accounts imo, while noting that interims are normally not audited so that helps a lot

interim period was to the end of Nov. & results issued <2 months later & that period included the Xmas period.

[smithie6] 27/1/2021 08:22

I think he still has room for improvement phps :-)

eg. the number for the Blindwells cash receipt upon completion (£9-10 million) for past conditional land sales is not mentioned in the text mentioning that payment was made post period. A potential share buyer needs to see the basic info. (& existing shareholders), without having to link together accounts & "also" RNSs, like a detective !

[muckshifter] 27/1/2021 08:14

Although I haven't had time to go through the numbers yet, today's interim results have what appears to me to be a more honest open dialogue in the CEO's statement, which I'm pleased to see! Don't know how the share price will react though.

[smithie6] 27/1/2021 08:13

...interims look ok imo

and an interim divi of 2.7p
& the 12.x p divi from the German venture is confirmed.

Blindwells land sale has completed post period.
~£10 million.

& conditional sale of 23 acres at Hatfield, for 200 homes. first land sale for homes at the Hatfield site

Seems a bit strange that no RNS was issued for these last 2 items of news, since imo they are material to the company.

The cash & NAV numbers are clearly improving, as was expected, while the reported profit is down. The share price is down due imo to the fall in reported profit. However I think the improving cash, NAV & debt numbers wrt the cap. value are important ,& attractive.

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 15:57

good info
thanks

----

Hatfield site
there looks to be an existing industrial area, & a road but it runs in a valley & has a tight bend (not ideal for artics imo) ( as one comes off the motorway to this area that road is down on the right) (based on the video from Balfour Beatty, or the JV, video was taken from a drone)

...my guess is that there will be a new road avoiding that one & avoiding the tight bend
...& avoiding the valley & running above it, & using the empty spur/entry to the new roundabout

unless someone wants to look into planning applications (or asking the company ??) I guess we will have to wait to find out.
or/but the company should be happy to answer a question about progress for providing that supply road & the JV obtaining its 25 million.

[muckshifter] 26/1/2021 14:59

OK Smithie, I'm not too busy so a couple of answers:

Firstly, doing the roads, balancing ponds, etc during bad Winter weather is more difficult and expensive, but doable, and I would expect that Hargreaves would have kept a temporary stockpile of rock on site which could be crushed and used below road formation or for haul roads. Major muckshift with technical requirements is a different matter in most soils and is more often seasonal - our season on the M6 in Cumbria was for example Paddy's day to bonfire night ie 17th March to 5th November. One of the things that annoyed me in the HSP RNS of 9th December 20 was the bit about expectations for Blackwell's second half on HS2, for that reason. My expectation would be that excavation for bridge building would be done asap, but that is a tiny proportion of the job.

The outline planning permission for the whole Hatfield project will have a road layout and intended construction criteria, but the detailed planning applications will be more specific. It is very much a question of how far from the cross site road the warehouse stands, imo. If the warehouse is adjacent to the main road I would have thought that the access road would be part of the warehouse planning application. If not, you have a chicken and egg game with the separate applications. That was the point I was making asking if anyone had seen application for either or both together.

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 13:52

Hatfield warehouse

personally I'm convinced that HSP has to provide road access to the land for the warehouse plot of land

since anyone buying a plot of land for a massive warehouse development next to s motorway junction would not pay £25 million while accepting the risk themselves of

- getting, or not, permission for road access to the plot

- whether or not the cross site road would be built, or not, to which an access road could connect to

- getting the access road built

(if a buyer had to take on those risks then the sale price would be much much lower...
it is/was logical that the site developer takes on the task, & gets a much higher land price as a result)

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 13:40

ah ha

interesting.
you have done some good digging.

-----

'if' what you say is correct,
19th May 2020 received planning permission, "&" HSP gave end of May 2020 as expected completion date including building roads & drains
with payment being triggered

then I would agree with you in deciding that HSP intentionally told porky pies.
(but at this moment I haven't checked, having a coffee right now :-) )

------

I assume that now is not a very good time to be building roads & drains at Blindwells
due to the normal weather meaning frost, ice, wet ground....but I don't know, perhaps frozen ground helps big machines to move around since better than deep muddy ground.
What is your view since it sounds like you have experience in the sector ?

[muckshifter] 26/1/2021 13:20

A few more points, Smithie6,

As previously posted, I'm not at all sure that the HSP JV have a road to build as part of the "completion" conditions, but I don't trust HSP RNSs. The bit of the RNS you quote in 2216 talks of a new road which provides direct access to Jn 5 of the M18, which sounds like the road Balfours have just opened - ie. an access road directly to the future warehouse would not connect to a motorway junction, it would connect to the road which Balfours have recently opened. So it is far from clear, reading that RNS that the HSP JV has to build the connection, but far from clear and perhaps "economical with the truth" seems common in HSP RNSs, imo.

If you want the real picture in terms of Blindwells, I suggest you go to East Lothian Council site where there are literally hundreds of Blindwells related planning documents which tell the story. For example, iirc, planning permission for the roads and drainage needed as a precursor, I believe, to the two completions was granted subject to just a few preconditions 19th May 2020, which didn't leave much time to fulfil the preconditions and then do the work before the predicted end of May "completion" did it.

Some of the documents appear contradictory, such as the need to prove that the site is environmentally clean which occurs in the Hargreaves application and the two joint applications between HSP & Crudens or Bellway - joint applications being indicative that HSP still have responsibility for some aspects of the housing site application. The HSP one for the roads and drainage etc, appears to have got over that hurdle but the others don't, because, imho, the criteria for acceptable levels of contamination are more rigorous for housing areas than under roads.

Try this and then poke about if you have hours and hours to spare:

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 11:57

muckshifter
you are not impressed with the past record of the bod
& perhaps with due reason

I'm hoping that the new chairman & the new director for land development will improve performance for the land division, they have records as being dynamic/active & quite successful.

And the company is controlled by big external shareholders who will be (are) monitoring & won't be too tolerant imo if the land division were to fall asleep with its projects. So, I'm fairly confident they will be working away. While sure, any delays within councils for construction approval, is outside of their hands.

[meijiman] 26/1/2021 11:55

That's right muckshifter. Think Harworth had a trading statement today..worth a read through. Some of their land will be very similar to that owned by HSP.

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 11:51

from the RNS of 20 May 2020 about the sale of the land for warehouse at Hatfield project

"The joint venture has exchanged conditional contracts for the sale of a 32 hectare (79 acre) plot to a national retailer for the development of a 75,000 sq metre (800,000 sq ft) national distribution centre and training facility. The sale, which will realise approximately GBP25m of revenue for the joint venture on legal completion, is conditional upon the grant of planning permission and construction of a new access road which will provide direct access to junction 5 of the M18. Legal completion is currently expected around the middle of 2021."

50:50 joint venture, so £12.5million for HSP.

so, an access road to the warehouse plot linking it to the motorway has to be provided by the JV of the seller. The cross site road is now open so the access road can link to that (looks like there is a spur at the roundabout on the site so perhaps the warehouse road will connect to there (??).

[smithie6] 26/1/2021 11:24

good info

I assume that the paperwork part shouldn't be so difficult since there is, I think, an "approved plan" for development of the whole site/area which includes routes for intended roads inside the site. But I have no experience at all of these things.

The local & regional councils are also fully behind the development of this area, to provide jobs etc, so I can't see them delaying anything, as long as it is not a major change from the existing approved plan.

----

You say the cross site public road is open (which included building a bridge).

Good news.
& something completed roughly to schedule :-)

-------

If my memory is correct the payment for the land for the warehouse at Hatfield was much higher than the 12.5million that you wrote, I will go to check what the RNS said.

[muckshifter] 26/1/2021 11:09

Smithie6,
I would think that the reference to Harworth has to do with them being, iirc, the property company that got out of UK Coal by the skin of its teeth before UKC went bang. They have been developing / selling old coal sites ever since, I would imagine, and although I haven't been interested enough in them to follow their progress, I doubt if they consistently make positive sale predictions and then fail to achieve them, as HSP do.

The cross site road at Hatfield was built by Balfour Beatty and has been open for a month or so. If HSP have to provide a road to the intended warehouse, which I'm not sure about, it obviously would have made sense to do it at the same time as the cross site road. But, have you seen anything about a detailed planning application for either that spur road, or for that matter the warehouse? Bearing in mind the time taken to achieve planning permission from application, and then, usually the fulfilment of pre-construction conditions attached to the planning approval, and the time then taken to mobilise and build the spur road (if there is one) when the conditional planning approval for the warehouse makes it feasible, I very much doubt if the £12.5m for the Hatfield sale will be paid this calender year.

[smithie6] 25/1/2021 15:17

is Harworth doing the work :-

- at Blindwells ?
or
- Hatfield ?

(Hatfield I think I recall, ??)

at Hatfield, the cross site road between the motorway junction & the nearest town (partly funded with public money), & due to be completed about now, but winter weather (cold & wet) may have slowed it down I guess

or do you mean the road to the big bit of land HSP is selling for a warehouse ?
...be logical that whoever makes the cross site road will get the contract from HSP to make the road to the land for the warehouse....if the same workers & machines are going to be used then does it have to wait until the cross site road is complete ??

[meijiman] 25/1/2021 14:31

Perhaps they could ring Harworth and ask them to show them how to do it?

[smithie6] 25/1/2021 13:40

I think you are right.

but many development projects end up seeing delays in reality, no ?

one assumes that progress is being made to satisfy the completion conditions for the 3 sale contracts at the Blindwells & Hatfield sites
and I'm hoping/expecting that payment is made in 2021, hopefully in the current financial year.

I'm sure the land division director is under some pressure to get it done, & consequently the relevant managers as well.

[muckshifter] 25/1/2021 12:21

Morning Smithie6,

My "guesstimated" completion date would be approximately a year late compared to the original predictions HSP gave - by end of May 2020.

The RNS claiming delays caused by covid was, imo, at best, a case of "being economical with the truth".

[smithie6] 24/1/2021 11:22

do we know a guestimated date for HSP satisfying the conditions of the existing 2 land sales at Blindwells ?

What have they got to do ?

Is building an access road to the plots (adjacent ?) a condition, main condition ?

[muckshifter] 23/1/2021 12:14

News next week iirc. Hope it's good as the last two RNSs have not been good, imho, and the lack of confirmation of completions at Blindwells, or even submission of detailed planning application for the Hatfield sale by the "buyer", after a long wait, has been frustrating.

[smithie6] 11/1/2021 11:47

sector news today

"Grainger Buys 231-Home Build To Rent Site In Bristol For GBP63 Million"

the sector of providing houses for rent, rather than for sale, seems to be seeing increasing activity

(& some the houses for the land already sold at the Blindwells site are for rental I understand; so perhaps more HSP land might be sold for use by that sector)