Hargreaves Services Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 18/12/2020 15:36

No dont play golf but have lots of relatives live around Silverknowes. Bus service OK to edinburgh and nice walks along estuary.... and cheap houses.

[smithie6] 18/12/2020 14:46

netc

btw
are you a golfer ?
I don't know if that was why you looked at moving to the Edinburgh area. Shed loads of golf courses along that Edinburgh/Lothian coastline !

....& looks like there are even some within Edinburgh city limits !

[smithie6] 18/12/2020 13:38

just been looking

Silverknowes, no train station. ;-)
whereas Blindwells is ~1.1 miles from a station. :-)

from Blindwells one can go to/from the ctr of Edinburgh very easily &/or to England since that train line is the main east coast train line (yes, you probably/surely have to go to a bigger train station to get on/off the high speed long distance trains)

to Edinburgh airport is just 55 minutes from Prestonpans train station, (+ a taxi for 1.1 miles to/from Blindwells or get dropped off by family ?)

train to Edinburgh Park & change to get the tram to the airport

55 minutes, pretty good

[netcurtains] 17/12/2020 22:10

No I've not been to Haddington - I'll get it checked out - thanks!
Currently I think Silverknowes is the best value in Edinburgh.

[smithie6] 17/12/2020 22:07

netcurtains

I think you mentioned the beach at Portabello.
Haddington is a nice local town, with various stone buildings in the centre.
Have you been there ?

(Wiki says that the name is Anglo Saxon from the 7th-8th century !
....& was part of England (Northumberland region, which was quite big) until ceded to Scotland in 10th-11th century !)

[smithie6] 17/12/2020 19:57

ah ha

copied from that article

"House prices have risen by six per cent across Scotland in the past year, with the biggest increases in the South Ayrshire region and for larger homes outside city centres"

+6%

(with a big variation in prices depending on the area, which I assume is driven by economics (unemployment %, incomes in different wage brackets, etc)....west of Glasgow having low prices (Inverclyde, Greenock area), while Edinburgh region has the highest prices (2.8x Inverclyde) (high employment, higher average income, more ppl in higher wage bracket etc)

(data is from property/home sales (flats, semis, detached), so the different types of properties in different regions can also affect the numerical result)

(so, if the Blindwells project was in Inverclyde & not 12 miles from Edinburgh (with a major'ish road link & a train line) it would be worth much less; & selling 11 acres for £9 million to Bellway (subject to completion conditions) wouldn't have happened)

[netcurtains] 17/12/2020 15:41

I bought a few more (2.48).
I think the Scotsman article on Scottish house prices is actually relevant.

[smithie6] 15/12/2020 13:58

+ve related news today from a Scottish house builder
Springfield
lse:spr

(which hopefully helps reinforce the value of the HSP land plots/project at Blindwells about 12 miles east of Edinburgh)

including :-

" Since the initial lockdown ended in June 2020, the Group experienced strong sales activity both as a result of pent-up demand as well as an increasing desirability for the type of private housing Springfield offers with larger homes, gardens and access to plenty of green space, particularly at its Village developments. "

"This demand has been underpinned by Scottish Government initiatives including the First Home Fund, Help to Buy and the Land and Buildings Transactions Tax holiday."

"This is further supported by the Scottish Government announcing, on 30 November 2020, an additional GBP200m in funding for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme in 2021-22."

& the following is good
(HSP need the housebuilders to be able to work, so they can build & sell houses, make a profit & then need to buy more land with construction permission, such as from HSP)

"Operations have continued without disruption since re-opening in June and the Scottish Government has provided certainty that housebuilding and supporting activities can continue in all tiers of the local restrictions that have been in place in Scotland since October. As a result, the Group remains on track to report significant growth for full year 2020/21."

"housebuilding and supporting activities can continue in all tiers of the local restrictions " ( for Covid)
& clearly the Scottish Govt. is fully behind having a busy housing construction sector in Scotland.

a good environment for HSP's housing land at Blindwells :-)

[smithie6] 14/12/2020 11:23

Your post is not the full truth.

The cash income from a divi from the German JV will be included in the HSP accounts
& will show up in various parts of the HSP accounts, including

- cashflow
- cash held
- nett cash
- shareholder assets
- profit made
etc

(same accounting treatment as before
but
now it is expected that the JV moves to reporting the generation of profits
whereas in previous accounts money was going out to fund the development of the 'carbon pulverisation plant').

------

& 49% of the JV shareholder assets will/is be used (which should have gone up since a profit is expected), I believe, in the HSP accounts for the value of the HSP investment

[harrogate] 14/12/2020 11:04

Just so you are aware the German company is treated as an associate as while they have an economic interest of 85% they only have 49% voting share. So it is not consolidated and none of its sales / profits appear in HSP accounts.

[smithie6] 14/12/2020 10:53

well, at least 5 positives for the coming 12 months imo

- new land sales likely at Blindwells & Hatfield sites

- cash jump of £35 million from land sales awaiting completion

- share of profit from German JV (85% of the profit to HSP)

- cash generation as existing stocks of coal are reduced, by selling

- 20p divi promised for 2021
a yield of about 8%

:-)

[muckshifter] 14/12/2020 10:11

You'll have to push harder Smithie! I think quite a few people found the update very disappointing in several aspects, I certainly did.

[smithie6] 14/12/2020 08:38

btw

many housebuilders are on this mornings top % risers, including Bellway

(housebuilders being 1 of the 2 main the buyers of HSP's land; the other main client being for warehouse/commercial use land)

[smithie6] 10/12/2020 11:09

'if' the money from one of the existing 2 land sales (£10 or £25 million) has arrived (subject to completion, which I think includes building the access road to the relevant plots) before the interim divi is paid (normally at the start of April)...could the interim not be increased to ~7p (a typical past final divi)
& then the ~ 12p (from the German JV) as the final divi ?

to try to balance out the size of the 2 divis rather than 1 very big final divi

[harrogate] 09/12/2020 17:50

No. The 12p cannot be paid before next November so it will be a large final

[smithie6] 09/12/2020 16:32

divis

20p has been promised for 2021, including ~ 12p from the German business.

I don't know if this could be split up & the interim increased from 2.7p to 10p ?
(usually paid in April)

[smithie6] 09/12/2020 09:05

...I agree

(personally, happy to see the net bank debt down to £8million
& with some land payments expected in H2 (10+ 25 million, =£35 million) the net bank debt surely moves to at least 35-8
= +ve £27 million !!

& with some sales/rundown of existing stocks of coal the cash position should be even better. :-)

& all wrt a cap value of ~£70 million

& of course a/the big jump in the cash situation makes it much easier to pay the promised 20p dividend.
:-)

=======

it also states

"and includes the Group's share of the post-tax profits of its German joint venture"

( the carbon pulverisation plant)

ie. the JV is profitable

:-)

[harrogate] 09/12/2020 08:55

Think you guys are being a little harsh here. Trading in line to do 20p EPS this year with 20p dividend and net debt coming down fast as expected. New contract wins and getting themselves out of British ( Chinese ) Steel with no cost. All that was missing was detail on a sale of land at Blindwells. 6 weeks ago at the AGM they said that they hoped to announce that in the near future so shouldn't be longStory remains in tact here a

[muckshifter] 09/12/2020 08:50

A disappointing update, imo.

[ayl30] 09/12/2020 08:46

10p spread looks overdone

[simon gordon] 09/12/2020 08:40

Yes, it was like oats and water porridge, no creamy milk or sweet honey. The day Mr Banham is retired/fired you'll know real change and value is being unlocked.

[terry236] 09/12/2020 08:35

Think it was a poor update tbf, was expecting more of an update on the Land side - which IMO is where the bull case for this share lies. Expecting the share to drift downwards until the Interims late Jan.

[solarno lopez] 09/12/2020 08:10

Triple bottom just formed

[value hound] 09/12/2020 08:02

Castleford Tiger; whereabouts in the IC? I can't see anything

[beeks of arabia] 09/12/2020 07:54

Are we all reading the same announcement?!