Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 28/2/2024 13:41

...once upon time I guess that Halfords car service places didn't exist (not owned by Halfords anyway)

& many of the other service chains also didn't exist.

Nowadays there are various chains & people are tight for money so many will ring round to get prices for getting new tyres fitted & then go the cheapest place. That surely puts pressure on margins, increase your margin very much & see your turnover fall hard.

[finkie] 28/2/2024 13:22

Covid took it down to 80p there now feels more tangible reasons for it to revisit those levels. No visibility at all here you are punting/averaging down if you play thats all.

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 13:20

sooty. I have watched TND for a while. It's easy to move the price on low volume. In February just over 200,000 shares traded and the share price jumps more than 60%.
MCB is my largest holding. I bought at the low and added up to 50p with an average of 29p. I still hold in full. Half year is in the bag. FY is a p/e of 5.3 on record profits. A p/e of 8 on the forecast is a 50% upside from todays price. Happy to discuss on the MCB thread.

[creditcrunchies] 28/2/2024 12:49

Anybody would think this is going bust dropping to 130p from 200+

[owenski] 28/2/2024 12:38

That was not a good read. Avoid

[my retirement fund] 28/2/2024 12:17

Does anyone think they may be hiding that most extraordinary expensive takeover of National Tires lock stock and barrel by accounting trickery? Could this be the reason for never-ending profit warnings?

[sooty snipes] 28/2/2024 11:40

Darrin1471 I recently bought TND at 180p. Value half NAV. What's not to like. Two very savvy investors recently bought in. I was humming and hawing about buying some MCB before the update..... Thought I'd wait Doh

[s34icknote] 28/2/2024 11:29

They keep buying companies to stand still !They have bought 100 million of tyre , service companies and profits go down !!

[skinny] 28/2/2024 10:59

The wettest February in 250 years can't have helped.

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 10:54

Cycle industry is imploding. Covid boom and bust. Lots of closures and bankruptcies. Stock being cleared at low prices for survival and by those in insolvency. Lots of examples on the TND tread. Worldwide phenonium, not just a UK thing.

IMO the EV industry will shake up the car service sector and maybe the car dealerships. HFD have the scale to be a long term beneficiary.

[bond99] 28/2/2024 10:51

"The other thing I don't understand is they are saying margins are compressed because cycle purchasers are using credit."

I think the sentence got jumbled up as you suspect, much like the finance director dept's understanding of how the business is doing. In just four weeks from the last update we get this today!

[prokartace] 28/2/2024 10:50

Just bought some for my sins

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:34

I would suspect many owners will be holding onto their cars for longer and hence cancelling or not renewing their expensive service agreements with the main dealers. PCP APRs have also gone much higher. This has to work into the hands of Halfords surely, but to what percentage of the business will it promote????

The other thing I don't understand is they are saying margins are compressed because cycle purchasers are using credit. Surely selling the prospective buyer credit will increase margin so what they should be saying is pricing competition on the cycles themselves is reducing the margins. Or have I missed something? Got out of the bed on the wrong side??????

[edit] Maybe just a badly-worded sentence looking at the trading update.

[21ant] 28/2/2024 10:32

Regardless of all the numbers, there's a massive trust issue here now. How can they miscalculate so badly at the last update? Then to 'lets face it' try and lie to investors and blame it on the current quarter trading is beyond me. Heads must roll and that's for the lies, not the mistake!

This went below £1 during Covid and the numbers are worse now so we may see a dead cat bounce but likely to drift down. Maybe worth a look as it gets under £1.20 but I'll see. It's a good business so a real shame it's being mismanaged.
I don't hold any currently - thankfully!

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:28

privileged

Yes, you are right. Just looking now. Not much left after intangibles. :(

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:26

"A PE of 10 still seems high for a retailer in Brexit Britain when you can buy shares on a PE of 5?"

That all depends on the company's prospects of course. Lower PE does not mean better value. The 3 Yr forward PE for Halfords is showing 8.8 (SharePad).

[privileged] 28/2/2024 10:25

Louis take out intangibles and there isn't really anything on balance sheetCould go lower. I think I'll buy around 120-125pEven on a p/e or fcf multiple that still doesn't look overtly cheap

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:22

Porsche

There is value in UK shares Porsche. You just have to be VERY careful what and when you buy. Some companies might be moving their listing to the US but their customers are not moving too. This is all down to the current view and predicament of the UK economy. Things will improve but it's going to take time.

[spob] 28/2/2024 10:22

What is betaville saying now lol

[blueclyde] 28/2/2024 10:20

A PE of 10 still seems high for a retailer in Brexit Britain when you can buy shares on a PE of 5?

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:16

Company now showing worth less than its net assets at 0.8 multiple.

[porsche1945] 28/2/2024 10:16

U.K. shares are now known in the city as “ the bug zapper trade “, if you are daft enough to buy brexit basket case U.K. shares you just get zapped and your capital vaporised. No wonder they are all trying to relist their companies elsewhere.

[louis brandeis] 28/2/2024 10:14

buoycat


Earnings approximately forecast to reduce by £10M so Halfords, which is approximately valued on a PE of 10, loses you the £100M in market cap. The £100M is essentially loss of value due to projected all future earnings being seen as less.

[blueball] 28/2/2024 09:56

Negative bowl on the chart 130p is possible.