Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[1tx] 12/1/2023 10:57

Very good points My Retirement Fund!HFD have paid a great deal of money mostly for intangible assets for its new purchases.The "New" Halfords was meant to be about Tyre depots & repairs.I have sold my holding,thankfully with a sliver of profit but I admit I "bought" into the managements story.

[pojscott] 12/1/2023 10:33

Recovering a little, big drop overdone?

[netcurtains] 12/1/2023 10:06

I've noticed with big falls there tends to be a smaller fall that carries over to the next day (not always). So I am tempted to buy but I think I'll take the risk and buy tomorrow (or next week), not today.

Good luck all.

[yump] 12/1/2023 09:48

Looks like people have been buying budget tyres not Michelins.

At £50mln pbt earnings would be about 23p. At this share price £40mln for next year is a p/e about 10 (earnings about 18p.)

The key is whether the gloom and a continuing recession with the same continuing problems is priced in or not.

[my retirement fund] 12/1/2023 09:38

Warning of more to come me thinks, hard to believe they could just go on a monumental buying spree, scoop up all those tyre centres at the multiples of premiums and then everything is going to be bright and rosy.

I bet there will be years of skeletons in the cupboards to emerge, could be very painful for share price imo

Anyone can buy profits (1), just like anyone can buy losses (2)! "Skilled" business men can buy profits (but at a premium) (3), but only true entrepreneurs can buy profits at a discount (4)!

Which one of the four did Halfords gold plated salary and pension protected "circuit style" CEO and board choose for you ?

answ: 1, 2, 3, 4

(please circle your answer using black ink only).

[kendonagasaki] 12/1/2023 09:31

50-75 million?That is some movement?

[debsdowner] 12/1/2023 09:26

Previous guidance was £65 to £75 so quite a fall and worrying at that

[...]

[debsdowner] 12/1/2023 09:07

tongosti, what was previous guidance prior to these results share price down circa 22% ?

[tongostl] 12/1/2023 08:34

Wait till Q4 results come in. They're gonna be even worse. Sub £40m pbt for the year imo.

[spob] 12/1/2023 07:59

Longer-term outlook

As we look to FY24, it remains particularly difficult forecasting with any certainty.

We expect the resilience and strength of our growing services and needs-based products business to continue, underpinned by the success of our Motoring Loyalty Club, Avayler and B2B business. We also expect the consumer tyre market to recover through the course of the year, and our actions taken on recruitment of skilled labour to unlock the capacity constraints on higher margin revenue opportunities. Consumers will, however, continue to face inflation, and we therefore do not expect a significant short-term recovery in high ticket, discretionary spending.

As indicated at our Interim results in November, we anticipate year-on-year cost inflation in wages, energy and currency, however we will partially offset these pressures through realising reductions in freight and product costs, whilst simultaneously continuing to reduce our cost base.

We remain confident in the longer-term outlook and believe the business is well positioned to capitalise on the strong platform we have built as market conditions improve.

At a Capital Markets Day on 30 March 2023 we will outline in more detail our expectations for FY24 and beyond.

Graham Stapleton, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"We have seen strong revenue growth in what are exceptionally challenging circumstances, and we have continued to grow our market share whilst also tightly managing our costs, inventories and cashflows. Consumer demand for our services and needs-based categories, which now account for the majority of our revenue, continues to grow, and our Motoring Loyalty Club is exceeding expectations as customers recognise the value of its unrivalled discounts and offers.

With unprecedented demand in our Motoring Services business, we are particularly impacted by the nationwide skills shortage, with recruitment proving to be extremely challenging in the current labour market. We are continuing to take a range of actions in order to fill 1,000 new automotive technician roles, which include our new Later Life Apprenticeship programme, as well as a focus on attracting more women and young people from disadvantaged backgrounds into automotive apprenticeships. We are confident that we can offer unrivalled career progression for automotive technicians, and that this will allow us to attract and retain talented individuals, thereby enabling us to better service the demand through FY24."

[spob] 12/1/2023 07:46

FY23 outlook

The Group continues to deliver strong revenue growth against prior year and three-year comparisons, demonstrating the resilience of our strategically important Services and B2B businesses, and the growth in market share achieved across both Retail Motoring and Cycling.

However, as mentioned above, the labour market remains very challenging, and we have been unable to recruit enough skilled technicians in our Autocentres business which we now expect will limit growth of higher margin sales during the important upcoming Q4 MOT peak. In addition, we have also seen weakness in the consumer tyre market continue for longer than initially anticipated and expect a deeper decline in demand for more discretionary high-ticket items in Retail than previously forecast.

As a result of these revisions to our forecast, we are reducing our FY23 underlying profit before tax ("PBT") guidance to GBP50m to GBP60m.

[kendonagasaki] 12/1/2023 07:20

Sales up but downgrading profit forecasts by 10 million pounds!!!! But looks like some elements of the garage business is in disarray?Growing pains?Trying to expand too far and too fast in a recessionary environment has bit them on the behind.Someone needs to be held responsible for those failures?City should use it as a punch bag this morning.

[21ant] 12/1/2023 07:13

Oh dear they don’t look good!!

[yump] 05/1/2023 11:56

Well there will have been a lot more cars on the road over the last month or so than normal, because of the rail strikes, so that should be a positive.

I imagine bike sales down yoy - everyone’s got them during covid and they’re discretionary.

However, discretionary is now a smallish fraction of the business.

Also despite the cost of living crisis obsessession, a large number of people are not hard up or struggling and are not facing eye-watering (in relation to their income) increases in energy costs.

[kendonagasaki] 05/1/2023 11:06

Well next have just announced better than expected sales.Can HFD also?

[darrin1471] 04/1/2023 10:06

12 January 2023 FY23 Q3 Trading Update

[darrin1471] 04/1/2023 10:05

12 January 2023 FY23 Q3 Trading Update

[kendonagasaki] 28/12/2022 16:59

Given the general news around the retail sector so far I am going to assume sales in the retail arm were not as devastating as they could have been.Let's see... if they are steady we could see a nice bump up into the new year?

[kendonagasaki] 07/12/2022 21:30

This will float at around 2.00 - 1.80 till next results.Stores will obviously miss the big ticket items and Black Friday has been a non starter for all retailers too!Best to watch how the service side is expanding and that will be the growth trajectory into 2023.

[aringadingding] 23/11/2022 15:46

Share price has had a very good run in the last few weeks. I think there was a sense with these results that a certain amount of good news was anticipated... then the news was ok, so in the end people took profits. I just think that is something that can happen. For me there is scope for combination of profits growth and re-rating in next few years. This is one among several shares that are simply good value for me. I don't have much of a view of the competitive dynamics of the sectors they are in - maybe I should.

[1tx] 23/11/2022 12:55

Reasonable results it is going to be hard work maintaining margins,bike sales could be slow & lots of cost increases that will be hard to pass on,hopefully new businesses bought will prove worthwhile but need to show their worth.Happy to have bought here a few months ago but share price now "about right level".

[schofi2] 23/11/2022 12:14

Halfords are brilliantly placed for some big future profits. Even on todays lowest projections for this year they are trading on a p/e of less than 7.
With money making schemes in the pipeline they are certainly a share to pack away in your portfolio.

The future for Halfords is services more than sales and there's lot of growth potential there

I'm fully invested and making some good profits now.

[maximus57] 23/11/2022 11:32

Such a negative price reaction, to a very good set of results. "This has been a period of strong strategic progress and resilient financial performance for Halfords."Disappointing, but maybe expected in the current climate.You'd expect price to move north from this, but you never know

[blackbear] 22/11/2022 15:21

540p could take a year but I bet it does