Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[argylerich] 12/7/2024 10:03

Reduced further to 0.85%. A little singed.

[argylerich] 08/7/2024 11:08

JP Morgan starting to concede defeat and reducing their short?

[bookbroker] 03/7/2024 09:27

As every hardware shop, B & M, The Range, etc sell it for much less I’m surprised they even sell it!

[itisonlymoney] 02/7/2024 11:21

a misguided short imv and i think we'll see it being reduced soon. the trading update was solid. earnings in line with the recent forecast with overall revenue up, and a good business strategy focusing on a shift to services that have consistent demand, ie the autocentres. divi at 6% is a good return for any buyers at this level so i reckon we should see a strong rise back to 160+ this month. from there, the overall economy and consumer spending dictates the direction of the shares and with any luck, new govt will create a feelgood atmosphere and labour will redistribute wealth back to 'hard working families' with their many cars in the driveway and up and down the street.

[argylerich] 01/7/2024 18:06

JP Morgan were increasing their short last week which may have holding things back?

[alotto] 01/7/2024 16:25

Unexpected bounce today
What's going on?

[spob] 29/6/2024 08:38

.



Britain’s once-booming bike market slumps

Retailers including Halfords flag sinking demand as customers avoid big purchases


Mari Novik

27 June 2024


The downturn in Britain’s once-booming bike market is deepening, according to one of the country’s biggest specialist retailers, in a sign that consumers remain under pressure even as inflation has eased.

Halfords, Britain’s biggest cycling retailer, said on Thursday that a pandemic-era jump in cycling had given way to a slump in demand, as customers under financial pressure put off making “big ticket, discretionary purchases”.

After soaring in popularity during lockdowns, cycling has become a victim of the cost of living crisis, with customers avoiding buying new bikes and accessories even as inflation and borrowing costs eased this year.

According to industry body the Bicycle Association, bike volumes are down by 30 per cent compared with before the pandemic, worse than expected and taking the total size of the market to £1.1bn.

“If you’re running, you need to buy some trainers. If you’re riding you need to buy a bike, and that’s hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of pounds,” said Halfords chief executive Graham Stapleton. “Customers are just deferring that type of spend because things are tight.”

Despite the rate of inflation falling to 2 per cent in May from a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022, the struggles of the bike industry show that the UK consumer is still under pressure. On Thursday, Halfords said more people were buying bikes on credit, with many holding off altogether.

Reporting preliminary results on Thursday, Halfords, which has 385 shops and 639 garages across the UK, said its cycling revenues dropped almost 3 per cent on a like-for-like basis in the year to the end of March, contributing to an almost 8 per cent drop in underlying pre-tax profits.

The retailer surged during the Covid-19 pandemic as cycling sales rose, but has suffered since, issuing a profit warning in February. Shares are down 34 per cent over the past 12 months.

On Thursday, Halfords said the cycling market had consolidated “at a faster rate than expected”, and predicted a further decline in demand this year.

“The cycle market was in decline last year, it’s still in decline this financial year. And therefore it is sensible to forecast that will (also) happen this year,” said Stapleton.

“This is purely cost of living related,” he said, adding that if interest rates came down and inflation started to stabilise, “you will see a better position next year and the year after”.

Tandem, a Birmingham-based cycling company, on Wednesday reported a similarly gloomy picture, warning that the selling season for bikes was delayed “due to poor weather conditions and high levels of excess stock in the market”.

Jonathan Pritchard, an analyst with Peel Hunt, said from a customer’s point of view, buying a bike was an easy decision to postpone.

“If in April I’ve cycled perfectly well on my old bike, I would be thinking I should probably use the same bike for this season. Maybe I’ll rather buy one next year,” he said, adding that poor weather at the start of the year had also hampered sales.

Halfords, a 131-year-old company said it remained “confident” in its strategy, partly because it had made good progress in evolving into a service-led business. In 2023, 80 per cent of the company’s revenue came from motoring services and garages.

[chriss911911] 27/6/2024 12:44

Yep, the underlying earnings and cash development are underwhelming, they don't give me any confidence they will not be giving more had news near term, more they lay the ground to do so, so that leaves added risk looking ahead, but not much in the way of value, looking the other way as what the equity ought to be worth.

They cannot destock for ever, and keep spinning up adjusting items, for a bit yes, but not sustainable, the underlying picture for me barely supports 200m equity, so see limited upside, but plenty of reason how it might disappoint. Had a look but, see it as a pointless investment at this time, and certainly dividend cover is a concern looking ahead.

[fenners66] 27/6/2024 11:10

You have to scroll down an awful long way (least I did) before you spot the Actual EPS for the year (and not the manufactured one,ignoring all the losses they created, that they want you to see)

7.8p vs a dividend of 8p....

[yump] 27/6/2024 09:43

Just goes to show, its the expectation in relation to the results that matters and thats set previously with trading statements plus the overall economy forecasts and the general state of the markets.

Unfortunately, more than one variable is too much to cope with for some investors.

[creditcrunchies] 27/6/2024 08:56

Nice bounce after that dip to 127p and a decent dividend

[blueball] 27/6/2024 08:10

Thats a bad fall.

[eigthwonder] 27/6/2024 08:08

IIOM,the long established history of this company isn't that its forecasts are cautious but that their forecasts are wrong, in either direction (but usually too high), and by material amounts.

[gswredland] 27/6/2024 07:57

Terrible...

[trader465] 27/6/2024 07:29

underlying PBT was down 18.3% to £36.1m

[itisonlymoney] 12/6/2024 17:16

pugugly, bicycles are a very small part of Halfords' business. They are primarily an automotive retailer nowadays. Tyres, servicing and accessories for cars are their main offer. If you go into one of their stores, you'll get a good sense of what they do. Bikes are often on the upper/mezzanine floor.

The management team is very cautious with its announcements and forecasts and has a tendency to under-promise and over-deliver in terms of results imo.

Full-year preliminary results are due in a fortnight (Thursday 27 June).

[pugugly] 11/6/2024 20:19

Thanks darrin - Confirmed gut feel - 1 to watch but not to buy at this stage.

[darrin1471] 11/6/2024 17:44

After falling through 146.8 Marketscreener has an oblique major trend line price of 141.9 then the next support at 126.5.
I hold no position in HFD

[pugugly] 11/6/2024 17:10

Market for bikes approaching saturation? Increased competition? = reduced turnover and margins? Back to July 22 share price - If does not hold - where to?
sp at time of posting 144p

[hamhamham1] 22/5/2024 14:18

Ahh, that must be why it just ticked up :)
- which is nice. As its my largest holding currently. Albeit current price is at my purchase break even level.

[argylerich] 14/5/2024 14:01

Worldquant reduce to 0.48% taking them off the radar for now. Total declared shorts now 2.22%.
Major hat tip to worldquant for reducing all the way from 1.31% and not shifting the price.

[argylerich] 10/5/2024 14:51

Well Worldquant seem to agree as they're still reducing, now @ 0.58%, although JP Morgan have the opposite opinion as they've upped their short to 0.74%.
Total declared shorts @ 2.8%

[schofi2] 10/5/2024 10:57

You would have to be crazy to short HFD and most other stocks with the current positive environment. The UK is going to hit a very sweet spot on the economy in the next 6 months.
Inflation below 2%
Interest rates reduced slightly.
More money in peoples pockets.
A rising stock market which will feed itself.
not guaranteed but 95% certain.